UPDATE 2: See below for a Press Release from the IPCC confirming that David Rose was wrong. The IPCC is holding its scheduled meeting at the end of the month. There are no other meetings scheduled.
David Rose is a so-called journalist in the UK. One of his specialities is disinformation about climate and climate science. He writes for a tabloid in the UK, maybe one rung up from what is affectionately known as the gutter press. You know the type - boobs, scout master "scandals", UFO's and other sensationalist crap to titillate the hoi polloi. The Mail is maybe a smidgen above that, maybe. Tabloids are not considered serious newspapers and have very little to do with news. To illustrate the content and target audience, here is a list of the most-read items as listed on the Mail Online today, in order:
- The daughter of a radio "breakfast host" gets married
- A pregnant woman on Big Brother, a very lowbrow reality tv show
- The UK Prime Minister attends a family wedding
- An internet harasser who said he got death threats
- A television "celebrity" faints
- Sensationalist scare stories about Pakistan, water and the Euro (Yeah, I know!)
- A member of the British royal family is "spotted" on a yacht
The list might change before readers get to it, but I expect every list is similar. That sets the scene nicely for this semi-fictional sensationalist nonsense from a David Rose, who has a history of making up stuff about climate as documented here and here and here and here and here and here and here (shall I continue?).
...one peer - Dr Walt Meier from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado - said the behaviour of sea ice becomes less predictable as it gets thinner. "[Maslowski's] is quite a good model, one thing it has is really high resolution, it can capture details that are lost in global climate models," he said. "But 2019 is only eight years away; there's been modelling showing that [likely dates are around] 2040/50, and I'd still lean towards that. "I'd be very surprised if it's 2013 - I wouldn't be totally surprised if it's 2019."And in this 2012 paper, Maslowski et al write about Arctic sea ice, including various projections and state, in reference to one of them:
Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3 (Kwok et al. 2009), one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover. (We do note that other published estimates also have large or indeterminate uncertainties.) At the same time, observational proxies of ice thickness (Maslanik et al. 2011) and independent model estimates (Polar Science Center 2011) of sea ice volume suggest a further decline of ice volume since 2007.
- The Mail on Sunday didn't make any revelations, it is in the disinformation business, not the information business. (Refer links above to David Rose's history of peddling lies about climate.)
- The Arctic ice sheet has not 'returned' in the manner that David would have you believe. The Arctic "ice sheet" that David refers to is not an "ice sheet", it's sea ice and is on a rapidly declining trend. It is shrinking not growing. See my previous article for more info.
- The UN climate change body that David refers to would be the IPCC. It is not to my knowledge holding any crisis meeting. I expect David is referring to the long-scheduled meeting to consider the final draft of WG1. The 36th session of the IPCC is scheduled to take place in Stockholm from the 23 to 26 September. It would most likely have been in the IPCC calendar for years.
Update: It's been suggested I post a picture. Here is one I put together for an article a couple of days ago (which has some more besides). It's an animated gif comparing Arctic sea ice on 5 September 1980 with that on 5 September 2013 - big difference:
|Source: Cryosphere Today|
Update 2 Press Release from the IPCC
GENEVA, 11 September - In response to recent articles about forthcoming meetings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC would like to note that:
Contrary to the articles the IPCC is not holding any crisis meeting. The IPCC will convene a plenary session to finalize the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, in line with its normal procedures, in Stockholm on 23-26 September 2013. The session has been scheduled for several years and this timetable has been repeatedly publicized by the IPCC.
As part of the IPCC's regular procedures, member governments were invited to comment on the final draft of the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I report ahead of the Stockholm meeting. Over 1,800 comments were received - a typical number for this exercise - and they will be considered as planned at the meeting in Stockholm. The Summary for Policymakers is due to be released on 27 September 2013. The accepted Final Draft of the full Working Group I report, comprising the Technical Summary, 14 Chapters and three Annexes, will also be released online in unedited form, on Monday 30 September. Following copy-editing, layout, final checks for errors the full Working Group I report “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis”, and its Summary for Policymakers will be published online in January 2014 (tbc) and in book form by Cambridge University Press a few months later.
Click here for the press release.