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Monday, October 12, 2015

Watching the global thermometer - year to date GISTemp with September 2015

Sou | 11:01 PM Go to the first of 44 comments. Add a comment
Every month since March, I've posted a chart of the progressive year-to-date global average surface temperature, from GISS. This is the update with September included. I'll repeat the explanation with each update and add what seem to be things to watch.

Worth noting: Second Hottest September on Record


  • 2015 is still hottest on record so far, and not showing any sign of dropping behind.
  • The progressive year to date average up to and including September is 0.81 °C above the 1951-1980 mean.
  • September was an average of 0.81 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and is the second hottest September on record, after September last year (0.90 °C).
  • June this year was the hottest June on record. After late additions to the data, July dropped to being the second hottest July on record after July 2011.
  • The highest anomaly this year is still March, now at 0.90 °C, which now makes it the third hottest March after March 2010 at 0.93 °C, and March 2002 at 0.91 °C.
  • The lowest anomalies this year so far were April, now 0.74 °C, and July now 0.73 °C above the 1951-1980 mean.
  • To drop below the hottest year on record, 2014 (0.75 °C), the average anomaly for the next three months would need to be around 0.58 °C, which seems unlikely. Especially given the El Niño and the fact that the lowest anomaly so far this year was 0.73 °C. 




Explaining the chart


The chart is a progressive year to date average, or running mean, for all years from 1995 to the present. What that means is for January each year, it just shows the anomaly for January. For February it shows the average of January and February for each year. For March, its the average of the monthly anomaly from January to March.

If you look at December, each year shows the annual average temperature for the full year. For November, each year has the average for the year up to November, not including December. (As before, I've made it extra large because of all the fine detail.)

Data Source: NASA GISS - GHCN-v3 1880-09/2015 + SST: ERSST v4 1880-09/2015

2015 is tracking above all other years, and not showing any sign of dropping (yet). The years to watch are 2014, 2010 and 2005. I've plotted them with slightly thicker lines so they stand out more easily.

The coldest year of the lot was 1996, which still ended up being 0.35°C above the 1950 to 1981 average.  The next time someone tries to tell you that "it hasn't warmed since 1996" then show them this chart :)


Related updates


Some charts showing how temperatures evolved in previous El Niño years can be seen in this article: Why Christopher Monckton is getting nervous about global temperature.

Here is the link to the table for the Year to Date chart.

44 comments:

jon said...

Greatt plot. We are very likely heading to a new record this year. However, we will keep hearing about "no warming since 1998". We will discover how long do some bloggers continue with this argument.

Andrew said...

It's interesting that in 1997 - which with the emerging el Nino could be used as an analogy - the effects of the el Nino emerged towards the end of the year.

If this event is similar, that would make the anomaly for October/November/December something like +0.95. You heard it here first (if it happens, if it doesn't then this was a purely speculative comment that could have turned out any old way..)

Sou said...

Yes, Andrew, same for 2009-10. I plotted some charts a little while ago that showed the two years of El Niño for 97-98, 09-10 and this year so far. Next year could be even hotter again if those years are any indication. Lower troposphere (satellite) temps go up later than surface temps, too.

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/09/why-christopher-monckton-is-getting.html

Magma said...

"No warming since 2015!"

cRR Kampen said...

There is about a half year (or slightly shorter) lag.

Catmando said...

Magma, you've stolen Lord Monckton's act.

Catmando said...

By the way, in his latest mathturbation, Monckton has moved the beginning of the non-pause to Feb 1997. His start point now stretches from August 1996 to Feb 1997. You'd think, having studied it so much, that he might have settled on a start point but... I forget that's not the idea of his monthly rambling.

Magma said...

Oh no! Should I expect a threatening letter from the prolix peer's imaginary solicitors regarding theft of intellectual property?

Millicent said...

Its certainly a very unusual kind of Ice Age we are experiencing.

Catmando said...

If you're lucky you'll get a writ on a silver salver delivered by his butler.

wheelism said...

Are there any three-year periods on record that set successive temperature records (sorry), as 2014-2016 might?

Magma said...

@wheelism, no, but HadCRUT4, GISTEMP and NOAA all come pretty close in 1995-(1996)-1997-1998, with only 1996 not being a record warmest-to-date year.

(With the usual caveat that some of the differences are of the same magnitude as the uncertainties.)

wheelism said...

Thanks, Magma.

john byatt said...

what is the next number in the series ? 1998 2005 2010 2014 2015

jrkrideau said...

1998 2005 2010 2014 2015 2015.5

Andy S said...

I have just published a post with my own plots of GISS data and some rather foolhardy monthly predictions to the end of 2016. I'm sure that many people, including regulars here can make better-informed guesses than me, so I have tried to instigate a contest.
http://critical-angle.net/2015/10/12/2015-and-2016-global-temperatures-a-what-if-exercise/

Harry Twinotter said...

The UAH and RSS tropical measures are on the rise.

For the spike in the surface stations? My guess is that will happen after the El Nino increases precipitation across a large enough region - this will deliver a lot of latent heat.

The other fact is we are tracking anomalies, not absolutes. So my guess is El Nino warming has more impact on the anomalies in the NH winter.

Harry Twinotter said...

Any decade now... :-)

King of the Paupers said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
MikeH said...

I have added your websites to my unofficial list of climate change nutters and cranks.

Sou said...

To the King: Thank you for the kind compliment, but you didn't comply with the HW comment policy.

Andrew said...

My prediction is - by analogy with 1998:

- 2015 and 2016 will be disregarded as 'just el Nino effects'
- 2017 and 2018 will be around 2010 temperatures (except with la nina conditions) - 'The pause continues after the blip'
- 2019 onwards will see the 'exceptional' temperatures of 2015-16 become the new normal, 'No warming since 2014!'

It's one of the depressing parts of global warming that because it's a relatively slow moving process, people can keep re-calibrating what they consider 'normal'.

Estador said...

"The next time someone tries to tell you that "it hasn't warmed since 1996" then show them this chart"

What's the point, they only believe in RSS data.

Bill H said...

Harry, There is a spike already for October. Take a look at NIck Stokes' blog, specifically: http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

This anomaly dataset is calculated using Nick's gridding method, and has shown itself over time to be very close to GISS. At the moment the October anomaly is over 0.3 degrees higher than September! It looks as if we are entering El Nino spile territory now, similar to what happened in early 1998 and 2007

Bernard J. said...

"We are very likely heading to a new record this year."

We are inevitably heading to a new record this year; just one of many. There is no way that the statistical weight of even the most extreme excursions from the momentum of the current warming could possibly take the 2015 trajectory below that of 2014.

At the end of this year there will have statistically been no warming since some time around the turn of the millenium, ± a few years. In physical reality warming has continued unabated for many decades and will continue to do so for many, many decades to come... at least. And why? Because humans won't stop shitting in their only nest in the known universe.

And a note for the stupid: the full effects of climate change lag the thermometer by centuries.

Oops.

PG said...

But as Sou points out. RSS and UHA can't keep a lid on it

metzomagic said...

There is no way that the statistical weight of even the most extreme excursions from the momentum of the current warming could possibly take the 2015 trajectory below that of 2014.

I agree. I'm also thinking that this is all going to put a sizeable wrench in the cogs of the 'ECS will be below 2C' Bayesians like Otto et. al. and Nic Lewis. Otto et. al. was published in 2013, with data for 4 decades only through 2009. With 2014, 2015, and 2016 shaping up to be the hottest on record... if you were to add this decade to the analysis, the ECS using the same analysis has got to be much closer to 3C as opposed to the 2C they came up with.

But, alas, we'll have to wait another for years for reality to sink in :-\

Neven said...

Congratulations, that's Goddard-level stupid/crazy.

DNG said...

From the source data (thanks Sou) I plotted the average of each month in 5 year blocks i.e a line each for 1995-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, 2010-14 .

I don't think I can paste the chart into this comment, but with less year-to-year noise on the chart it's even more compelling.

Suffice to say: for every month of the year, each five year block is warmer than the previous one, and 2014 & 2015 are way above

xyz t said...

they only believe in RSS data.

I do not think that is accurate. My experience has been that"they" believe the data which gives the result they want. Sometimes it has been UAH and sometimes RSS. And if these fail to deliver they most likely will declare that satellite data has been cooked and cannot be used anymore (just like satellite altimetry is currently part of big scam)..Perhaps they can create an even better series somehow :)

Raymond Arritt said...

Not quite "no way." A major volcanic eruption could knock this year down in the rankings. I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but still we have to acknowledge that it's possible.

numerobis said...

How long does it take for the aerosols to spread? I thought it would still take a month or two after the eruption to see global effects. Is it much faster than I've understood it to be?

Raymond Arritt said...

It takes a few months. For Pinatubo, maximum effect on global surface temperature was about a year to a year and a half after the eruption. So to have a significant effect on this year it would have to be a really, really big eruption, stronger than Pinatubo and possibly stronger than Krakatoa. And it would need to happen soon.

Bert from Eltham said...

Our Spaceship Earth already has the aerosols of many fires that are nearly worldwide. Just have a look at Indonesia on the BOM site here.

http://satview.bom.gov.au/

Bert

DNG said...

My chart is visible here
[IMG]http://i61.tinypic.com/2v26pf5.jpg[/IMG]

Bill H said...

A. greed, xyz t. Some months ago there was a great deal of whooping at wuwt and elsewhere when Roy Spencer released "version 6.0" of the UAH temperature series. This was, surprise, surprise, in good agreement with RSS, partly because Spencer introduced a "diurnal correction" used by RSS that he had previously been highly critical of. The wattites used this agreement as evidence that RSS and the latest, er, adjustment, of UAH were therefore likely to be correct. Nobody pointed out that any temperature series that had been ADJUSTED should be automatically treated with suspicion.

Bill H said...

Sorry, that first word should be "Agreed", not "A. greed"

Cugel said...

I realise that "nothing happens by accident" is a sign of conspiracism, but can it be coincidence that the re-tuned UAH, long promised, only emerged when an El Nino was a racing certainty? One is bound to suspect that it's been re-tuned to minimise the effect of a hypothesised El Nino this year and next. I doubt it'll help them much even if that's true.

xyz t said...

There is/was an initiative under a name hidethedecline - or something - which attempts to create a parallel universe of "untampered" temperature records.. That could be their last (?) resort, along with climate4you which looks sort of credible but afaik has an agenda..

Bill H said...

Cugel, Spencer's latest revision of UAH came out before the present el Nino began. I think Spencer realised that the whole "pause" claim was looking pretty flaky, so he tried to bolster it with his "corrections". I don't even know if he's submitted the corrected series for peer review. It certainly hasn't found its way into the peer reviewed literature. Not that such things seem to bother his fans.

Cugel said...

Taking the least charitable position - that the parameters of the UAH method are tuned to minimise the warming given the available data - then the new method could be tuned to include available data plus a hypothesised typical El Nino to the end of 2016. Getting them a little ahead of the game.

Wild-ass speculation at best, but that's what I'd do ;)

xyz t said...

Just checked that hidethedecline/ruti page. Looks like it is slowly dying out all by itself - if the timestamps of "latest news" can be used as metric..

LFC said...

I believe that's known as a Freudian Slip. "A. greed" is a perfect start to the list of why big oil pumps money into faux climate researchers.

Bert from Eltham said...

Andrew the current anomaly for October is 1.18C above the mean in Sou's Graph. This makes the year to date average temperature anomaly 0.84C. Bert