El Niño has been cancelled

In case you missed it, the latest ENSO wrap-up from the Bureau of Meteorology has downgraded El Niño status from "alert" to "watch". The atmosphere didn't come to the party and so it's no longer as likely to happen imminently.

An El Niño might still emerge in coming months, based on model outlooks.

From the Bureau:

ENSO Outlook lowered to El Niño WATCH
Recent observations and climate model outlooks suggest the immediate risk of El Niño has passed.

However, there remains an increased likelihood that El Niño will develop later in 2019. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has therefore moved to El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter.

Tropical Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures remain warmer than average, but since late 2018 they have cooled from El Niño-like values towards ENSO-neutral values. Atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index all continue to generally remain within the ENSO-neutral range.

While most climate models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for the immediate future, the current ocean warmth and likelihood of ongoing warmer than average conditions mean the risk of El Niño remains. Three of eight models suggest that El Niño may establish by mid-2019.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

By the way, no matter what some cranks might try to tell you, El Niño isn't what's causing global warming. "It's getting hotter because it's getting hotter" isn't an adequate explanation for climate change!

Second hottest October on record, just above October 2016

Summary: October 2017 was the second hottest October on record. The 12 month period to October 2017 was the second hottest November to October period on record.

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for October was 0.90 °C, which is 0.18 °C less than the October 2015. October 2017 was just 0.01 °C hotter than the next hottest October in 2016.

Below is a chart of the average of 12 months to October each year. The 12 months to October 2017 averaged 0.90 °C above the 1951-1980 mean, which was 0.13 °C cooler than the 12 months to October 2016.

This makes it the second hottest September to October 12 month period on record.

August 2017 is the second hottest August on record - the #climate is changing

Summary: August 2017 was the second hottest August on record. The 12 months to August 2017 was the second hottest September to August period on record.

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for August was 0.85 °C, which is 0.14 °C less than the August 2016. August 2017 was 0.05 °C hotter than the next hottest August in 2014, which had an anomaly of 0.80 °C.

Below is a chart of the average of 12 months to August each year. The 12 months to August 2017 averaged 0.91 °C above the 1951-1980 mean, which was 0.13 °C cooler than the 12 months to August 2016.

This makes it the second hottest September to August 12 month period on record.

2017 has just had the hottest July on record!

Summary: July 2017 was the hottest July on record by just a smidgen. The 12 months to July 2017 was the second hottest August to July period on record.

Because July is the hottest month, it also makes it the hottest month ever on record. Edit: it's been pointed out to me that August last year pipped July 2016 and July 2017 as the hottest month on record.

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for July was 0.83 °C, which is 0.01 °C more than the July 2016, making July 2017 the hottest July in the record.

Below is a chart of the average of 12 months to July each year. The 12 months to July 2017 averaged 0.92 °C above the 1951-1980 mean, which was 0.11 °C cooler than the 12 months to July 2016.

This makes it the second hottest August to July 12 month period on record.

June is cooler in 2017 but still the 4th hottest June on record

Summary: June 2017 was the fourth hottest June on record. The 12 months to June 2017 was the second hottest July to June period on record.

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for June was 0.69 °C, which is 0.10 °C less than the hottest June in 2016, making June 2017 the fourth hottest June in the record. It's the hottest June in any year when there was no El Nino.

Below is a chart of the average of 12 months to June each year. The 12 months to June 2017 averaged 0.91 °C above the 1951-1980 mean, which was 0.10 °C cooler than the 12 months to June 2016.

This makes it the second hottest July to June 12 month period on record.

Second hottest May on record

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for May was 0.88 °C, which is 0.05 °C less than the hottest May in 2016, making May 2017 the second hottest May in the record.

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to May each year. The 12 months to May 2017 averaged 0.91 °C above the 1951-1980 mean, which was 0.10 °C cooler than the 12 months to May 2016. This makes it the second hottest May to May 12 month period on record.

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to May each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

(Google has just made some changes to its charting program, and has yet to iron out some of the kinks. Let me know if you see any problems. I am having trouble seeing the values to the right of the charts. Hopefully it will get fixed soon.)

Second hottest April on record

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for April was 0.88 °C, which is 0.18 °C lower than the hottest April in 2016, making April 2017 the second hottest April in the record.

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to April each year. The 12 months to April 2017 averaged 0.91 °C above the 1951-1980 mean, which was 0.07 °C cooler than the 12 months to April 2016,. This makes it the second hottest April to April 12 month period on record.

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to April each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

Second hottest March on record - NASA global temperature update with year to date comparison

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for March was 1.12 °C, which is 0.16 °C lower than the hottest March in 2016, making March 2017 the second hottest March in the record.

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to March each year. The 12 months to March 2017 averaged 0.93 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was almost identical to the 12 months to March 2016, being just 0.02 °C cooler. This makes it the second hottest April to March 12 month period on record.

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to March each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

Second hottest February on record - is another El Niño on the way already?

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for February was 1.10 °C, which is 0.22 °C lower than the hottest February in 2016 and the second hottest February in the record.

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to February each year. The 12 months to February 2017 averaged 0.94 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was almost identical to the 12 months to February 2016, being just 0.01 °C hotter. This makes it the hottest March to February 12 month period on record.

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to February each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

2016 is the hottest year on record - three in a row now

A short while ago the data showed that 2016 temperatures for the troposphere (upper air) were the highest on record. Today, we've got results for the surface, from NASA and NOAA.

You will not be surprised to know that 2016 was yet another hottest year ever recorded in the instrumental record, beating 2015 by 0.12 °C.

That's more than I expected. (2015 beat 2014 by 0.13 °C and that seemed a big jump.)

Dr Gavin Schmidt, Director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), NASA and Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina are currently giving a press conference to announce the annual average global surface temperature results and discuss the most important weather and climate events of the year.

2016 was the hottest year on record for the troposphere

For the troposphere, 2016 was the hottest year on record!

The troposphere temperatures for December 2016 have been released. The lower troposphere is recorded in UAH v6 beta 5 and RSS TLT v3.3. This report also covers RSS TTT for the troposphere (without the "lower") and follows pretty much the same format as previous monthly updates.

For RSS TTT (troposphere), 2016 was the hottest year in the record. Last month was the second hottest December on record.

The lower troposphere (UAH beta v6.05) also showed 2016 as the hottest year in the record. However, December was only the sixth hottest December on record, with 2015 the hottest.

It's still hot! Second hottest November in the NASA GISTemp record

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for November was 0.95 °C, which is the second hottest November on record, and only 0.07 °C lower than the hottest November during the El Niño in 2015.

The average for the eleven months to the end of November is 1.01 °C, which is 0.17 °C higher than the previous hottest January to November period in 2015, which with the latest data had an anomaly of 0.84 °C.

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to November each year. The 12 months to November 2016 averaged 1.02 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was 0.14 °C hotter than the 12 months to November 2015:

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to November each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

No, there's no La Niña. BoM has announced ENSO inactive

Some of you might have noticed the changed picture in the ENSO report in the side bar. Today the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has announced that ENSO is inactive. There is no La Niña expected in the near term.

Figure 1 | ENSO dial - derived from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology graphic.

From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM):

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Although some very weak La Niña-like patterns continue (such as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and reduced cloudiness in the central and eastern Pacific), La Niña thresholds have not been met. Climate models and current observations suggest these patterns will not persist. The likelihood of La Niña developing in the coming months is now low, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has shifted from La Niña WATCH to INACTIVE.

Hottest November on record for the troposphere - with a comment on Trumped Up Courage

Despite what David Rose, the Global Warming Policy Foundation, the fake press (Breitbart), WUWT, and the US House Science Committee will try to claim - global warming is real and happening now. There is no ice age about to arrive.

For the troposphere, November was the hottest November on record!

The troposphere temperatures for November 2016 have been released. The lower troposphere is recorded in UAH v6 beta 5 and RSS TLT v3.3. This report also covers RSS TTT for the troposphere (without the "lower") and follows pretty much the same format as previous monthly updates.

For RSS TTT (troposphere), last month was the hottest November on record. For 2016 to be colder than the previous hottest year (1998), the troposphere would have to average a negative anomaly:- less than -1.57 °C for the remaining month. It's an understatement to say that is unlikely.

The lower troposphere (UAH beta v6.05) was also the hottest November on record with 2015. For 1998 to remain the hottest year in the UAH lower troposphere record, the anomaly for December would need to be below minus 0.21 °C. That's not likely but not impossible.

Heat continues with a hot October - second hottest on record

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for October was 0.89 °C, which is the second hottest October on record, and 0.18 °C lower than the hottest October in 2015. This is despite the fact that NOAA has announced a La Nina advisory.

The average for the nine months to the end of October is 1.02 °C, which is 0.19 °C higher than the previous hottest January to October period in 2015, which with the latest data had an anomaly of 0.83 °C.

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to October each year. The 12 months to October 2016 averaged 1.03 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was 0.21 °C hotter than the 12 months to October 2015:

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to October each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

Troposphere temperatures for October 2016 - another hottest on record

The troposphere temperatures for October 2016 have been released. The lower troposphere is recorded in UAH v6 beta 5 and RSS TLT v3.3. This report also covers RSS TTT for the troposphere (without the "lower") and follows pretty much the same format as previous monthly updates.

For RSS TTT (troposphere), last month was the hottest October on record. For 2016 to be colder than the previous hottest year (1998), the troposphere would have to average a negative anomaly:- less than -0.41 °C for the remaining months.

The lower troposphere (UAH beta v6.05) was the equal hottest October on record with 2015. For 1998 to remain the hottest year in the UAH lower troposphere record, the average for the next two months would need to be below 0.21 °C.

Hottest September on record

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for September was 0.91 °C, which is just 0.01 °C higher than the previous hottest September in 2014.


The average for the eight months to the end of September is 1.03 °C, which is 0.23 °C higher than the previous hottest January to September period in 2015, which with the latest data had an anomaly of 0.80 °C.

There are now twelve in a row of "hottest months" from October 2015 to September 2016 (that is, hottest October, hottest November etc). If we could look back over the entire Holocene, it's probably more than 7,000 years since there was a similar run of hottest months on record, that is, not since the Holocene climatic optimum (it's probably hotter now than it was back then).

Update: It's just been pointed out to me that the latest revisions put June 16 temperature (0.75 C) below that of June 98 and June 15 (equal 0.78 C). That means that there were now eight months in a row of "hottest" - from October to May inclusive. Then another three hottest months from July to September.

Sou 10:54 am AEDT 18 October 2016

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to September each year. The 12 months to September 2016 averaged 1.03 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was 0.23 °C hotter than the 12 months to September 2015:

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to September each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

Another "hottest month": Troposphere temperatures for September 2016

The troposphere temperatures for September 2016 have been released. The lower troposphere is recorded in UAH v6 beta 5 and RSS TLT v3.3. This report also covers RSS TTT for the troposphere (without the "lower") and follows pretty much the same format as previous monthly updates.

In all records, the September global anomaly was higher than it was in August but lower than earlier this year as El Niño is now over.

For RSS TTT (troposphere), last month was the hottest September on record. For 2016 to be colder than the previous hottest year (1998), the troposphere would have to average a negative anomaly:- less than -.025 °C for the remaining months.

The lower troposphere (UAH beta v6.05) was the equal hottest September on record with 1998. For 1998 to remain the hottest year in the UAH lower troposphere record, the average for the next three months would need to be below 0.28 °C, which could happen. (Roy and John changed the August 2016 temperature, dropping it from 0.44 °C to 0.43 °C.)

Barmy bloopers from John Christy and co at WUWT seven years later

Another Oh My! article has hit the denier-waves. This time from John Christy of UAH infamy, and friends (WUWT article with link is archived here, update here). It purported to be about green houses that are gassy, or something like that. The first sentence in the preface is:

On December 15, 2009, EPA issued its Green House Gas (GHG) Endangerment Finding, which has driven very significant and costly regulations beginning with CO2.  

Seriously. These guys claim to be writing about greenhouse gases and they don't even know how to spell greenhouse?

Warning: this is another long article.

Crikey! Hottest August on record - vies with July for hottest month ever

According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for August was 0.98 °C, which is 0.16 °C higher than the previous hottest August in 2014.

Because July is the hottest month of the year, I've seen this July reported as the hottest month ever in recorded history! I asked the question whether August beat July and was told it's too close to call.

The average for the eight months to the end of August is 1.05 °C, which is 0.25 °C higher than any previous January to August period. The previous highest was last year, which with the latest data had an anomaly of 0.8 °C.

There are now eleven in a row of "hottest months" from October 2015 to August 2016 (that is, hottest October, hottest November etc). If we could look back over the entire Holocene, it's probably more than 7,000 years since there was a similar run of hottest months on record, that is, not since the Holocene climatic optimum (it's probably hotter now than it was back then).

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to August each year. The 12 months to August 2016 averaged 1.03 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was 0.23 °C hotter than the 12 months to August 2015:

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to August each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA