Update - see below for how it's sometimes me who makes a fool of myself!
Anthony Watts is very confused about ENSO. He's got a little competition going at the moment (archived here, latest update here). This is what he's written:
When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
Anthony doesn't say who the usual suspects are. Nor does he say how they will try to link an El Niño to global warming/climate change. He does give a hint about the latter though, writing:
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
This article is long - to parse Anthony's confused comments, see Bob Tisdale's
HotWhopper Competition: What do you think Anthony Watts is claiming?
I'll start. What I deduce from the above is that Anthony Watts thinks that:
- El Niño will cause global surface temperature to rise higher than it has ever before on record.
- Record high temperatures from El Niño do not signify global warming.
- There is "no linkage" between something or other and something or other.
I'm uncertain (p=0.5) as to what Anthony's something or others are (point 3). I think what he might be trying to argue is that if El Niño shifts heat from beneath the sea surface to the surface, then it's not got any link to global warming. And it doesn't, when there is no global warming.
I showed a simplified view of this in an article about Perenially Puzzled Bob Tisdale. If there is no global warming, then on average, El Niño's would peak at the same global surface temperature and after the El Niño, global surface temperatures would drop back to where they were before the El Niño.
But if there is global warming then one would expect that global surface temperatures would be trending up and most El Niño's would bring hotter surface temperatures than previous El Niño's brought.
Maybe Anthony is trying to argue that if El Niño causes a rise in global surface temperature then it doesn't cause a rise in global surface temperature. Or maybe it's as simple as if El Niño causes a spike in global surface temperature then that spike isn't global or it isn't warming or it isn't global warming, even if that spike were to be higher than any spike on record.
Here's a competition for HotWhopperites: Give us your best explanation of what Anthony means.
What about the tropical Pacific?
Anthony's competition comments were below a copy and paste from a previous article by Bob Tisdale. Bob had a chart that he said showed:
According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
Now Bob said he got his "observed sea surface temperatures" from Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset. As far as I can find, these data are derived from ship measurements, buoys and satellites and infilled statistically. This is the chart that Bob put up:
How has Bob Tisdale fudged his chart? Answer: He didn't!Update: Lars Karlsson has pointed out that I mapped the opposite area of the ocean. So Bob didn't fudge the chart at all.
I should have been more careful - and apologies to Bob.
I'll leave this comment and placeholder here as a salutory lesson to myself!
Sou: 7:50 pm AEDT
PS If anyone want to see how big my mistake was, Brandon Shollenberger (who is hot on the trail of every mistake but who himself never makes a mistake) has archived it here.
From the WUWT comments
Some people didn't play Anthony's game, they just made random comments. Here are some of the headlines for Anthony's competition plus a few of the random comments.
Some of the headlines may win a guernsey, others suggest the author isn't a copywriter. Based on the entries, most people at WUWT do think that the next El Niño will be a whopper! That's even while many of them don't "believe in" anthropogenic global warming. No-one ever accused a science denier of making sense.
It’s worse than we thought. Robert Wykoff April 12, 2014 at 3:01 pm
Obama’s plan next vacation. Greg April 12, 2014 at 3:03 pm
“Wheres the Heat???? RIGHT HERE and to STAY” Jim Arndt April 12, 2014 at 3:13 pm
The pause-in-global-warming that never happened is now over ( and it’s worse than we thought). BCBill April 12, 2014 at 3:15 pm
Zombie El Nino Attacks Global Warming Pause Roy Spencer April 12, 2014 at 3:39 pm
“Pause” fades like a mirage as el Nino in the Pacific brings global warming back with a vengeance. “ phlogiston April 12, 2014 at 3:59 pm
“Missing heat lunges from ocean. Swallows last remaining denier!” Frank Kotler April 12, 2014 at 4:46 pm
Global warming resumes with a vengeance. Jimbo April 12, 2014 at 4:54 pm
“hidden heat says BOO!” Jeef April 12, 2014 at 5:06 pm
Climate change driven El Niño kills the hiatus. Daniel G. April 12, 2014 at 5:15 pm
Jimbo seems to be convinced this El Niño will be a big one but not the hottest ever, and adds his entries in Anthony's competition:
April 12, 2014 at 4:40 pm
• Dangerous warming is here!
• Head for the hills!
• The 2nd hottest year evaaaaah!
• The world is hotting up.
• We must act now! It’s all for the grandchildren.
• Climate change makes El Ninos stronger.
• Scientists see worrying signs of global warming.
Jimbo keeps coming up with more. He can't make up his mind if the next one is going to be a super El Niño or a regular one: Jimbo says:
April 12, 2014 at 5:34 pm
• Global warming on steroids.
• Get ready for Thermageddon.
• A sure sign of climate change.
• Positive proof of global warming.
Pamela Gray says:
April 12, 2014 at 3:11 pm
First, it will not be big or super anything (men…they always think things are bigger than they are). What counts is overall column heat. And this will be nothing to get all twitterpated over. The lead up (and ain’t it the truth ladies) is that this will be the biggest El Nino EVA and caused by human hands!!!!! But when it is finally revealed, it will leave us La Nina’s pointing and laughing.
jim Steele hedges his bets and tells a fib when he says (excerpt):
April 12, 2014 at 3:11 pm
Based on my belief that the sun, not CO2, warms the tropical oceans, and because solar output has been declining, and as expected the upper 700 meters of the ocean have cooled since 2003, I do no expect to see an El Nino that increases global temperature (unless heavily adjusted) above the 1997-98 event. I would guess any warming would be less than the 2010 event.
Jim Steele plays loose with the truth, as usual. Here's a chart of ocean heat content for the upper 700 metres, with the red line showing 2003. It's been getting hotter, not cooling:
|Data Source: NOAA|
Jon Gebarowski says:
April 12, 2014 at 3:14 pm
One of the warmers on a website I frequent likes to call everything “Unprecedented”, I suspect he will drag that line out.
Dodgy Geezer says:
April 12, 2014 at 3:32 pm
…So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media…
I think that we should encourage them. I’m sure that, in the heat(pun alert!) of the moment, there will be a lot of exaggerated predictions made. We should get people to nail their predictions to the mast, and stake their reputations on this ‘resumption of heating’ continuing.
That will give us ammunition for another 10 years…
April 12, 2014 at 4:47 pm
Yeah, I don’t think we are going to see a large/strong El Nino which leaves lasting remnants for some time. And I am talking like between 2035-2045 before we do …will it really matter what they say at that point?
We might see an El Nino, but I doubt it will be that large and it will probably be bookend by rather large La Nina events which leave them hesitant to say too much.
So my headline prediction goes more along the lines of
“After many false starts, is the next Super El Nino developing?”
And I think we might even see a “missed/failed predictions” mention being a possibility
RobertInAz takes a little bit from every pseudo-scientist at WUWT and decides CO2 does have something to do with global warming. He says:
April 12, 2014 at 5:08 pm
I continue to not be satisfied by Bob’s conviction(?) that the ENSO related temperature trend is unrelated to CO2 effect. If Wills is correct that tropical surface temperatures are heavily regulated then it makes sense to me that a plausible explanation for the phenomena Bob most excellently describes is as follows:
1. Excess heat is retained in the tropics as predicted by CO2 theory which puts most of the retention in the tropics.
2. The temperature is regulated per Willis.
3. The heat migrates to the poles or hides in the oceans per Willis and multiple sources
4. The heat is periodically discharged into the atmosphere in an El Nino event.
How does this not explain some of the CO2 induced warming?
As an Arizona resident, I am a great fan of El Nino events. Similarly, I am not concerned about 100+ temperatures.
Contrary to popular belief, some science deniers do have a sense of humour. pokerguy says:
“MONSTER EL NINO SWALLOWS KEVIN TRENBERTH”
Dr. Trenberth, a highly respected climatologist known for theorizing that the missing heat is hiding in the ocean depths, ignored the warnings of his colleagues and tried to take the El Nino’s temperature. The fearsome beast took exception to the insertion of a thermometer into its hind parts, and swallowed him whole.
“Kevin was praying for a super el nino,” his friend MIchael Mann lamented. “We all were. But it turned out to be even worse than we thought. Kevin was a true hero. The whole thing is a terrible travesty. I mean tragedy.”
That seems like a good note to end on :) If you want more, check out the archive. If anyone wants to count up the number of WUWT-ers who think the next El Niño will be a doozy, be my guest. They are an odd lot, accepting global warming at the same time as they reject it.