Over at Jo Nova's blog, the Rocket Scientist from Luna Park, David Evans, and his long-suffering partner Jo Nova, ran into a spot of bother. They'd written something like 30 articles about Force X and The Notch, promising a big freeze is about to hit the world. Then they hit a brick wall. They couldn't figure out where to go next, how to string things out a bit longer.
David has been looking for a magical mysterious invisible Force X from an imaginary notch he thought he'd found. He's creating this alternative theory of climate for science deniers of the extremely gullible kind. His Force has magical and conflicting properties:
- it's undetectable
- its effect is delayed by the length of the solar cycle that comes after the Force is with us
- it appears as flickers of sunlight
- it comes out of the sun
- it is ten or twenty times stronger than incoming solar radiation
- it controls how much sunlight is reflected to space from earth, without changing the temperature on Earth
- it also controls how much sunlight comes into Earth
- the mechanism could be by UV, magnetic field effects, solar wind, or other form of electrical field.
The big problem confronting David and Jo, apart from the obvious, was how the heck could an imaginary force delay itself by a solar cycle that hasn't happened. That is, the force doesn't know how long it needs to wait before it cools the planet until the next solar cycle is complete. Assuming Force X isn't sentient (which can't be ruled out), David came up with what he probably thought was a clever solution. He decided to split Force X into two (archived here).
Force X is now Force N and Force D. Or for those in the know, from this point forward it will be known as the Force-ND Hypothesis, unless Jo and David change their mind. David proudly announced Equation 1, "schematically":
Force N is synchronised with the sun and happens at the beginning of the solar cycle. I think that is shorthand for saying it acts at the same point in every solar cycle. It might or might not have the effects of Force X. That is, it might affect the amount of sunlight reflected from Earth or it might not. Maybe by changing clouds or maybe not. It does cause notching, which means nothing at all according to Lubos Motl.
Force D is also synchronised with the sun. It is delayed by one solar cycle, meaning I know not what. Does it start at the beginning of the same solar cycle as Force N, but get delayed? Or does it start at the end of a solar cycle at the same time as the next Force N? Force D, we're told solemnly, does affect how much sun is reflected out to space from Earth, through means mysterious and undetectable. It knows when to pop out by getting a signal from David Evans' smoothed TSI graph. (Let's hope David hangs about for a while or Force D might trot off to another planet.)
I've no idea what David has in mind, but here's a guess:
I don't know what part if any David's Force N plays in all this or what form it takes. David seems to think it comes from the sun. Does Force D come from the sun, or is it triggered by Force N after Force N lies dormant somewhere for a solar cycle? In which case, what's the difference between his magical Force X and his new-found Force N and Force D?
There are other questions of course, such as why hasn't there been any sight, sound, smell or touch of these magical forces before now, or now? In thousands of years of sun watching, there's not one person who has so much as hinted at these magical invisible undetectable forces.
Never mind. As David and Jo say, we'll know when the cold hits. It didn't hit in 2014, which was the hottest year on record until 2015. Maybe it will be felt in 2017 after the effects of this current El Nino wear off. Or in 2018 or 2019 or 2020 or 2024 or for however long David and Jo can string along their
From the HotWhopper archives
- Another cool prediction from the Force X duo from downunder: David Evans and Jo Nova - February 2016, including a table of different predictions
- Jo Nova's Solar Force be With You - if you're a wacko science denier - May 2015, with a list of solar acronyms and description of various sources of solar data.
- Denier Weirdness: Magical mysterious Force X and the Notch - June 2014
- Nova and Evans present ForceX: "It would be better if there was a known mechanism of course..." - June 2014
- Quote of the Day from David Evans, the Rocket Scientist from Luna Park - July 2014
- A memorial to "The Notch" - RIP - August 2014