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Sunday, July 6, 2014

Quote of the Day from David Evans, the Rocket Scientist from Luna Park

Sou | 4:14 AM Go to the first of 6 comments. Add a comment

Wondering how David Evans was tracking with his Force X from the Sun, now that he's been challenged by some of the locals at WUWT. You may recall that for the last eighteen months he's been building a "model" in an Excel spreadsheet.  Force X and the notch were the subject of BIG NEWS - with eight plus articles and a 170 page paper, yet to be released. I guess he hasn't made much progress after all or he's not a very organised modeller, because I came across this comment from David Evans:
July 5, 2014 at 9:51 pm
Leif – I’ll get to it, but finding the parameters for the model is complicated and slow, takes a few days. Might be a few weeks before I can get to it.

Is it any wonder that he's not willing to share his workings? Sounds as if he's got himself into a real mess.  All that was suggested was that he replace his TSI data (an Evans Special concoction from multiple sources) with a single set. His comment was in reply to this suggestion by Leif Svalgaard, quoting David Evans (extract)
July 5, 2014 at 3:23 pm
...“Running the model (parametrized for the composite TSI data I use, basically Lean/PMOD/ACRIM) on your reconstruction of TSI also shows a hefty temperature fall in 2015 ”
This is the wrong way of doing this. You must parameterize using the same reconstruction as for running the model.
So, the valid test would be:
1) parameterize using ‘my’ TSI
2) run the model on ‘my’ TSI
3) compare with the temperature record
I await your agreement to this collaborative work with anticipation. Science should be [as generally is, except for fringe pseudo-science] building on each other’s work, so please join me in this venture.

I'm not the only one who finds David Evans' comment very strange after the grand build up to the Big News. Leif Svalgaard does too (extract):
July 6, 2014 at 3:11 am
Is your computer code that slow? Or is it just a manual process? If so, that would explain your reluctance to reveal the process. 

Before David Evans does plug in Leif Svalgaard's TSI data and runs the model again, I'd say he also needs to sort out his temperature concoction. From what I've read he didn't just mess with TSI, he also cobbled together temperature data from multiple sources combining surface and lower troposphere temperature data sets. Then he smoothed his temperature cocktail, quite inexplicably, with a 25 year running mean.

6 comments:

Millicent said...

"finding the parameters for the model is complicated and slow, takes a few days"

Evans has my sympathy: climate elves are notoriously difficult to spot when they want to remain hidden.

Don Brooks said...

This is a strong indicator that there's no real physical basis for Evans' model.

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." - John von Neumann

Catmando said...

Perhaps it was Tol's gremlins.

I-beam said...

Oh, what tangled webs we weave, ...

David appears to have dug himself really deep on this one. Will he stop, or keep digging?

Catmando said...

The modus operandi of a denier is to keep digging - once they have a pet theory no matter how much evidence piles up to contradict the theory, the denier won't let it go.

John Mashey said...

Morton's Demons are powerful.