In the comments earlier, Don Brooks asked:
Is the "Force X" stuff really RIP? Nova and Evans don't seem like the types to give up easily, even when it's shown beyond doubt that they're talking tosh.
And I couldn't believe they came up with that self-parodying term for it.
The Notch is RIP, dead but not quite buried. It was a muted announcement by Jo Nova and David Evans back on 21st July 2014. No "Big News" fanfare about it's passing, in contrast to its birth. I believe it died quietly, surrounded by family and close friends and is mourned greatly and will be treasured in denier memories.
In order for Force X to rise from the ashes, the rocket scientist from Luna Park is relying on David "funny sunny" Archibald and similar nutters to come up with a plausible explanation of their predicted rapid cooling over the next six years. Joanne wrote:
...the notch doesn’t guarantee a delay as we had previously thought. But there is independent evidence suggesting temperatures on Earth follow solar activity with a one cycle delay — the lag seen in studies like Archibald, Friis-Christainsen and Usoskin is still a lag.
David Evans wrote (archived here) that he's going to come up with some new parameters to replace The Notch (RIP) and forecast imminent global cooling:
So what does this mean for the notch-delay model? Possibly not much, but there will be a delay (ahem) while I recompute things and update the model and graphs.
The causality of a notch doesn’t support the mandatory nature of the delay that I thought I had established, but there is plenty of other evidence to suggest a delay is needed. There are half a dozen independent findings of a delay around about 11 years in the literature, and a solar influence fits better with a delay (e.g. Lockwood and Froehlich 2007 — they show that solar influence doesn’t fit without a delay). Either the sun has little effect beyond the small TSI variations, and we’re left with CO2-driven climate models that don’t work and a mystery about all the warming before 1900, or there is some solar effect that appears to be delayed from TSI changes. While the notch does not *necessarily* mean a delay, certainly the *possibility* of a delay is strong. So there is sufficient reason to include a delay in the solar model — so the model remains as before, with no change. (Clarification: the form stays the same, the parameters will vary).
David Evans is quite determined to throw good money after bad (donations from denier suckers are paying for it so what the heck). He is also determined to reject climate science that explains changes in climate over the years. He is a greenhouse effect denier stuck on "it's the sun".
Click here and here for previous articles about Force X and The Notch.