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Thursday, March 17, 2016

Absurd levels of cranked up disinformation from Bob Tisdale at WUWT

Sou | 2:23 AM Go to the first of 30 comments. Add a comment
This article will be short, I promise. It will be much shorter than Bob Tisdale's latest protest (archived here). Bob's posted a bunch of charts that show just how hot February was. The contrast between Bob's first lot of charts and what he wrote is quite extraordinary. (Bob then fudged the next lot of charts to make the warming go away, which is typical behaviour from him.) Bob thinks that people are silly to react to this chart of global mean surface temperature - and this is only since 1997!

Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature since 1997. Data source: GISS NASA

Or this next chart of Northern Hemisphere monthly temperature. (Remember the shock when the anomaly broke through one degree above the 1951-1980 average? Last month it was almost at 2 C above it.)

Figure 2 | Monthly global mean surface temperature since 1880. Data source: GISS NASA

Bob Tisdale isn't worried. No sirree. He calls it "Alarmism Cranked Up to Absurd Level". In his denial he laughs at scientists who voice their concern that it's getting more and more urgent to address climate change.

As you know, Bob Tisdale removes 30 months (2 1/2 years) of data to try to persuade his fans of imaginary differences between modeled and observed temperature. He's taken up disinformation as an immoral pursuit in his semi-retirement.





No, Bob - it's not just El Nino


There's one more thing - Bob still thinks that all the warming is caused by ENSO. Bob doesn't believe Tamino when he removed the effects of solar, volcanoes and ENSO from the trend. He thinks Tamino left a bit out. I don't think so. Bob wrote:
Apparently his model needs some work, because after supposedly removing the effects of El Niños it still shows an uptick caused by the 2015/16 El Niño.

Bob was referring to this chart in Tamino's "Surprise, but not shock" article, which has been adjusted to remove the effects of ENSO events, and volcanic and solar forcings. Even so, February was still very hot:

Figure 3 | Global mean surface temperature after adjustment to remove ENSO, volcanic and solar. Source: Tamino

Look at the map for February and see what you think. By far most of the heat is way up north, not at the equator. Sure, some of it will have been carried up north, but most is nowhere near the Pacific.

Figure 4 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly February 2016. Source: GISS NASA

Heed the scientists, don't take any notice of denial from disinformers like Bob Tisdale


There's an article at The Conversation by Steve Sherwood and Stefan Rahmstorf. I suggest read both that article and the one by Tamino to get a better sense of what all this means.


From the WUWT comments


I didn't add any comments when I first posted this article. They are mostly forgettable. However I've just seen a new one added, which is a very long rant from Arn, who is questioning the credentials of retired meteorologist from the UK Met Office, ToneB. The entire comment is nonsensical, and I've highlighted some bits that are particularly Dunning-Kruger-ish:
March 16, 2016 at 7:29 am (excerpts)
Toneb,
You’ve been saying so many goofy things it’s unlikely you graduated high school.
Is there any particular job you ever worked in measuring anything for money?
Any particular field you were employed using scientifically certifiable measurement mechanisms where if you did your job wrong you were fired?...

...The way we real scientists know you are a fake one is you say you believed in all that disjoint, thermodynamic law violating trash.
Real scientists utilize and conform their thought processes to the laws of mathematics and physics....
...You’ve never been involved in anything like that Toneb, and the way it’s so easy to tell, is that you think climatology is actually a field of science. Climatology is a word made up by people who were trying to separate the grants they applied for, from weather grants.
Climate is weather,
Weather is climate.
You don’t need some particularly unusual experience or training to study the three phases of matter involved in climate. There’s the solid phase earth, there’s the plasma phase sun, there’s the liquid phase green house gas water, and the gas phase general atmospheric mix.
The fact you’re going on about how ”climatology” is some high and mighty art reveals that you’re actually an environmentalist not even a science student.

30 comments:

  1. Tisdale: Apparently his model needs some work, because after supposedly removing the effects of El Niños it still shows an uptick caused by the 2015/16 El Niño.

    This from the people who claim to be better at science than scientists.

    If you knew in advance that the entire peak, nothing more and nothing less, was due to El Nino there would not even be a need to analyze the data. You just have to sit in a comfortable armchair and think: this entire peak was due to El Nino. Then you go to your computer and write your profound thought up and everyone at WUWT will admire you for your beautiful mind.

    ReplyDelete
  2. That comment from Arn is a classic.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Two months ago Bob Tisdale wrote a post where he concluded that the present el Nino wasn't as strong as 1997/1998, measured by MEI, SOI, warm water volume,etc.
    Now when this "not-so-strong" el Nino has produced a peak anomaly 0.47 C warmer than 1997/1998, Bob have to make up new excuses, instead of accepting that there might be some AGW at work here..

    Anyway, 0.47 C increase between comparable el Nino peaks 18 years apart, suggest a global warming of 0.26 C/decade, quite in line with the CMIP5 model mean. But what if the present Nino is weaker than 1998 (as suggested by MEI)? Then the actual warming must be larger than expected..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Anyway, 0.47 C increase between comparable el Nino peaks 18 years apart, suggest a global warming of 0.26 C/decade, quite in line with the CMIP5 model mean."

      Bob knows that, that's why he baselines the way he does in his figure 7 to remove any reminder of the GAT trend.

      Delete
  4. Oh come on, Olaf...that was SO 2 months ago! Deniers need to respond much more nimbly than that!

    ReplyDelete
  5. As the said "Toneb" I truly feel honoured.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Arn was allowed to play with the crayons today.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. +1 internets to Catmando for that one :-)

      Delete
  6. The ENSO Frigidaire has been on the fritz (the ENSO furnace is working overtime). You guys just wait. It's going to be fixed in time for the next La Nina, and the GMST is going down baby, down.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Has Bob ever given an explanation of how the ENSO produces this extra heat

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. oceanic frictional fusion

      Delete
    2. Energy can neither be created or destroyed. Rather, it transforms from one form to another. Oh, wait... perhaps Bob should read this:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy

      But, nah, delusion is the path of least resistance. And class, for our next physics lesson, we're going to talk about... friction :-)

      In the real world though, outside the alternate reality inhabited by the LOL WHUT?! denizens, this is all becoming a bit tiresome. And missing the point that we need to address this AGW problem ASAP before we are all shortly to become toast. Without butter on it. But still somehow managing to fall on the wrong side when it hits the floor.

      Delete
    3. Tisdalean ENSO heat accumulates because...it just does.

      Delete
    4. Metzomagic.
      "delusion is the path of least resistance"
      Thats a fabulous line.
      More than that, its accurate.
      Wanted to say thankyou for writing it.

      Delete
    5. Thanks Li. Thought it might actually be original. So googled it, and the only other reference I can find to it is here:

      http://dev.utahbusiness.com/articles/view/dodging_darwin

      But it employs 'self-delusion' instead. Ah well, I'll come up with an original one sooner or later. 100,000 monkeys with typewriters, and all that ;-)

      Delete
    6. Tisdale did engage on a Skeptical Science comment thread back in 2012 during which he perpetually evaded the multiple "where is the energy coming from" questions. For laughs: http://skepticalscience.com/argument.php?p=2&t=196&&a=57

      Delete
  8. Indeed :
    No need to follow down the rabbit-hole...
    So easy dismissal...

    "..... I have forgotten more about weather/climate than you have the slightest inkling of (judging by your post)."

    Just having a little push against Bob as well.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Tisdale knows he's bust. Every graphic presentation choice is built on what he feels he should try and hide.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Well, that's the necessary proof that "Arn" can't count past three ... he described four different phases of matter!

    He has no chance of differentiating "real scientists" from the rest. I think he spent most of his scientific education thinking up insults.

    And, of course, the mention of "thermodynamic law" for those playing denier bingo.

    ReplyDelete
  11. If you can bear the confusion (pdf):

    "The El Niño released lots of warm water from below the surface of the western tropical Pacific, but how was that warm water created?
    It was created during a La Niña that came before the El Niño. This happens because La Niña events reduce cloud cover and allow more sunlight than normal to penetrate and warm the tropical Pacific. It’s all so simple, and it’s all supported by data, not by incorrect assumptions implanted while programming climate models."


    And it all started with the little ice age, before the there must have been some other theory.

    "so simple"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ah, thanks all - that makes sense, I was looking through a thread on the Telegraph yesterday and someone was going on about sunlight warming the oceans, he was obviously playing the Tisdalean Defence

      Delete
    2. Well, sunlight does warm the oceans. Then I think maybe it leaves.

      Delete
  12. "You don’t need some particularly unusual experience or training to study the three phases of matter involved in climate. There’s the solid phase earth, there’s the plasma phase sun..."

    As a very wise man also once said: "Putin is a one-horse country: Oil and energy..."

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anthony is not the only one who has a severe and sad Tisdale problem, I have reason to believe that Dr Curry has also become reliant on Tisdale to get her through a hard day.
    Judith PLEASE, for the sake of your reputation and that of GT you must acknowledge the danger sings and seek advice. Your tippling has escalated into binge Tisdaling.

    https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/21/busting-or-not-the-mid-20th-century-global-warming-hiatus/

    https://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-in-global-warming/

    https://judithcurry.com/2014/01/21/ocean-heat-content-uncertainties/

    https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/busting-or-not-the-mid-20th-century-global-warming-hiatus/

    ReplyDelete
  14. "Judith PLEASE, for the sake of your reputation..." - not the kind of thing I'd call out at a thug.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thuggish Attribution Studies has entered a golden age
    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432700/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump-campaign-manager-thug
    And yes I DID link to National Review. Got a problum wif dat sciency guy?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Lots, truly lots of royalties for me, then.
    Plus for 'climate revisionists' which I saw taken last week for the very first time this perfect meme got used.
    Poor Lewandowski...

    ReplyDelete
  17. ahah, that is fantastic, Conspiracy and demagoguery website Breitbart calling conspiracy theorist and demagogue Trump a "thug"

    from the sublime to the ridiculous

    ReplyDelete
  18. But Trump's are the wrong conspiracies and demagoguery!

    ReplyDelete

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