The latest ENSO wrap up from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicates that the El Niño is likely to continue to strengthen, with trade winds weakened.
The 2015 El Niño has continued to strengthen over the past fortnight. The ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other, with tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weakened trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Strong coupling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere is typical of a mature El Niño, and suggests only a small chance of the event finishing before the end of the year.
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to warm further, peaking later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.
Warning to the bandwidth challenged - one of the files below the fold is rather large (just under 1 MB).
The model outlook from BoM shows the likely strengthening of El Nino over September, then a leveling out of sea surface temperature anomalies before falling back early next year:
Next an animation of sub-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, down to 400m, starting in January 2014 through to August 2015. This year is different to last year. These are from BoM.
Here's an animation of sea surface temperatures across the Pacific, from NOAA images from January this year through to 17 August:
Related HotWhopper articles
- Latest ENSO report - El Niño is getting stronger - 22 July 2015
- ENSO update - El Niño continues to strengthen aided by tropical cyclones - 7 July 2015
- More charts tracking El Niño 2015 - 18 May 2015
- El Niño in the tropical Pacific - 12 May 2015
- About El Niño - A short article describing El Niño - 12 May 2015
- Gobbling up or Spitting Out Bob Tisdale's ENSO Leftovers at WUWT - a longer article describing ENSO in general - January 2014