David Archibald (again) predicts an ice age to cometh @wattsupwiththat

No sooner had I predicted that an ice age cometh article would appear at WUWT than Anthony Watts posted one. My wish is his command :)

David "funny sunny" Archibald wrote another of his solar articles (archived here) and, despite all the failures of his previous predictions, snuck in this comment (my emphasis):

On that assumption, Solar Cycle 25’s amplitude is likely to be two thirds of that of Solar Cycle 24, and thus 60. Further climatic cooling is therefore in store.

What climatic cooling has there been? How can there be "further" climatic cooling in store, when there's not been any so far?

For the chart enthusiasts, I've combined two of David's charts with global average surface temperature charts, to highlight how silly his claim is.

First of all here's a chart of temperature above his solar chart, marked with his own annotation that claims that the sun caused cooling in the 1970s. In 1973 it was an extra hot year for the time, despite the fact that by his measure (F10.7 Flux and Oulu Neutron Count) it should have started cooling in 1969 or 1970:

There's no relationship that I can see between David's solar chart and surface temperature. The actual reason for the cooling in 1974 was a strong La Nina from 1973 to 1976. Conversely, 1973 was extra hot because of the 1972-73 El Nino. Both of these occurred while the world continued to warm.

Does a colder sun heat the planet?

This next chart shows the global average surface temperature from 1985 to the present, over David Archibald's chart of sunspots. As you can see, while his sunspot chart indicates if anything a decline in the sun's energy output, the temperature here on Earth has kept on going up and up and up. If there was no other information, one could almost be forgiven for thinking that a drop in solar energy makes the earth hotter!

There is no sign of David Archibald's claimed "climatic cooling". He's a long time climate disinformer who Anthony Watts trots out from time to time to please his "ice age cometh" alarmists.

David Archibald's funny and wrong prediction

For the record, I've updated the chart showing his 2006 prediction. Back then he predicted the temperature in 2020 would be 1.5 C below that in 2006. That is, below the coldest temperature ever seen since civilisation began. For his prediction to be realised then between now and 2020, the temperature would need to drop by 1.85 C.:

From the WUWT comments

There are not a lot of comments yet. Some people are challenging David, which is a healthy sign. Not most, which is an unhealthy sign. Then there are the "it's cold in winter" people. Tom Harley thinks the fact that it's winter means that an ice age is coming.

June 6, 2017 at 10:34 pm
Thanks David, looks like a lot of work has gone into this. I guess Leif will be along throwing stones soon. To a layman like me, this is looking like a cold episode has already started. it sure feels like it down under. But then, it’s still only weather. https://pindanpost.com/2017/06/06/the-looming-cold-in-oz/

Mark - Helsinki isn't satisfied with the "testing of theories" that has been done to date, he wants to put it off for another decade.

June 7, 2017 at 12:31 am
above and below 40 latitudes the energy from the sun in low periods is greatly reduced, while the southern mostly ocean, it’s the northern area that will cool faster with less warmth being shipped up there by surface waters too, it’s a double edged sword. Less energy less heat transport, growing cap.
Imo anyways and now we get to test the hypotheses and theories in the next decade so that is at least good :)

Added a few minutes after posting, using an updated archive: Bill H quizzed David Archibald on his 2006 prediction:

June 6, 2017 at 11:20 pm
Mr. Archibald,
In your Energy and Environment paper of 2006 you stated:
“Based on solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5°C is predicted to 2020. ”
In other words you predicted a decline of 1.5 degrees between 2006 and 2020. Since we are more than 80% of the way through that period, and surface temperatures are actually significantly higher than they were in 2006, is it time for you to declare that your predictions at that time are unfounded, and make some sort of assessment of why your 2006 work got things so wrong. Incidentally a 1.5 deg fall would lead to global temperatures lower than anything in the paleo record for the “Little Ice Age”.

David Archibald replied sarcastically with this. archibaldperth wrote:

June 7, 2017 at 4:03 am
Bless you Bill. You remembered something I wrote over a decade ago. That is so flattering. 

What neither David or Bill mentioned was David Archibald's prediction from 2014, less than three years ago, when he predicted a drop in temperature of 2 degrees! That was when he was touting the now apparently quite dead and defunct if magical and mysterious Force X and the Notch.