Tim Ball has a reputation as a greenhouse effect denier, a paranoid conspiracy theorist and alleged libeller of climate scientists. He is much favoured by Anthony Watts of WUWT, who is very discerning of which articles he will post on his blog. From what I've seen over the past year or so, to be accepted at WUWT, guest articles usually have to meet one or more criteria:
- Be based in and promote pseudo-science
- Promote paranoid conspiracy theories about anything vaguely related to climate or weather
- Ridicule climate scientists and misrepresent their science
- Harass anyone who accepts mainstream science
- Cherry-pick or quote-mine with the aim of protesting global warming
- Be posted on another denier blog, preferably a lot of other denier blogs.
Anthony Watts will also post press releases about new scientific papers, with the headline typically prefaced with the word "claim", meaning that his readers are not to believe the science.
Oh, sad day...
|Peter Bruegel the Elder - The Hunters in the Snow, 1565, oil on wood|
Tim complains that computer models rely on data that doesn't exist. He wrote:
Wigley promoted application of computer models, but Lamb knew they were only as good as the data used for their construction. Lamb is still correct. The models are built on data, which either doesn’t exist, or is by all measures inadequate.
Goodness me. The data doesn't exist or is inadequate. That will be news to meteorologists and weather recorders and analysts world-wide, like at CRU, the UK Met Office/Hadley Centre, NASA, NOAA, and the Bureau of Meteorology - among others.
Tim Ball is misleading WUWT readers. From the CRU website, since 1978 and continuing to the present day, the CRU has been collecting and reporting data - yes, actual data - of land and marine surface temperatures:
The area of CRU's work that has probably had the largest international impact was started in 1978 and continues through to the present-day: the production of the world's land-based, gridded (currently using 5° by 5° latitude/longitude boxes) temperature data set. This involved many person-years of painstaking data collection, checking and homogenization. In 1986, this analysis was extended to the marine sector (in co-operation with the Hadley Centre, Met Office from 1989), and so represented the first-ever synthesis of land and marine temperature data - i.e., the first global temperature record, demonstrating unequivocally that the globe has warmed since 1850, with the warming now reaching about 0.8°C . Work continues year-on-year to update and enhance the record and the publication of the value for the past year is eagerly awaited around the world. The most recent update is the HadCRUT4 dataset (see Morice et al. 2012, which additionally includes the CRU land component, CRUTEM4, Jones et al. 2012).
Tim loves quoting Hubert Lamb to support his conspiracy theories. He quotes from his autobiography, "Through all the changing scenes of life : a meteorologist's tale" published by Taverner Press. (Does anyone have a copy? What else does Hubert Lamb say that Tim doesn't quote?)
Hubert Lamb is heralded by the CRU for his work in recording world-wide weather records. His pioneering work was continued by others at CRU, and his legacy remains. As I understand it, Hubert Lamb was somewhat sceptical of global warming till the day he died in 1997. However, if he were alive today, I'd be surprised if he'd be happy with Tim Ball's paranoid conspiracy theories.
Tim ends up claiming:
Another simple truth is the model output should never be used as the basis for anything let alone global energy policy.
So according to Tim Ball, computer models should never be used for anything in today's modern world, including:
- Economic projections
- Aircraft design
- Power plant construction
- Pandemic projections
- Weather forecasting and cyclone tracking
- Global energy predictions
- Climate modeling.
What an utter nutter.
Anthony Watts has fallen a long way down from his modest but praiseworthy ideals when he first started blogging.
From the WUWT comments
denniswingo buys into Tim Ball's crap and writes:
October 16, 2014 at 8:32 pm
It is indeed unfortunate that the study of historical records that H.H. Lamb was so expert at was completely abandoned by the computer mongers.
In the U.S. it happened when A Gore gave Kevin Trenberth at the University of Michigan $5 million dollars to buy a super computer. Took the money from NASA. This is while at UAH John Christy was starved of funds…
cg reckons that hurricanes are the result of "weather weapons" and blames Monsanto
October 16, 2014 at 8:49 pm
Most of these Super Hurricanes and Weather Anomalies are manmade. Weather weapons, and Hawaii had a big GMO Company buy its biggest islands land. All these unusual hurricanes steered towards Hawaii serves Monsanto’s purposes.
LewSkannen observes, irrelevantly, that weather can only be predicted a few days out:
October 16, 2014 at 8:56 pm
Another interesting snippet from the book ‘Chaos’ by Gleick (brother of the other one) is that even if you measured perfectly all the relevant average parameters (temperature, humidity, wind velocity etc) in every cubic meter of the entire atmosphere and had a perfect algorithm to crunch the numbers you would be unable to make any predictions more than a month ahead simply due to the chaotic effects on the algorithm from the tiny discrepancies between the average parameter of each cube and the actual state of each cube.