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AGU FALL MEETING 2014



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Wednesday, June 12, 2013

The world has warmed a lot in the 33 years since 1980

Sou | 10:48 PM 7 Comments - leave a comment

There's a smarmy article up now on WUWT with Anthony Watts and David Whitehouse (of the GWPF, a denialist lobby group and propaganda machine in the UK) now saying "it hasn't warmed since 1980"!  Sheesh it's hard to believe even creeps with such a dubious history as that pair would try to pass that one off.

Here is what Anthony wrote:
Using 1997 as preferred by Rose, we are fast approaching Dr. Ben Santer’s 17 year test, and if we use Jones and Lindzen’s 1995 start point, we’ve passed it. What will Gillis say then? – Anthony

What will Gillis say then?  Gosh Anthony is so transparent in trying to shift the goal posts.  What a desperate and silly ploy.  Since the last decade was the hottest on record and since the world has warmed in the last fifteen years, seventeen years and 33 years, Gillis will say just that.  The UK Met Office has already slapped down the Mail's disinformation outlet, David Rose.  But Watts continues to promote his lies. And here is what Whitehouse wrote in the same article:
Removing this volcanic signal also reduces the statistical significance of the rise in temperature seen since 1980. (In fact, statistically speaking, one is hard-pressed to find any statistically significant warming between 1980 – 1995.)

The world is significantly hotter than it was 33 years ago


Though people  like Watts and Whitehouse would have you believe otherwise - it's now more than two years since Dr Phil Jones pointed out that the warming since 1995 is statistically significant.

Let's look at their idiotic claim that there has been no warming in 33 years.  That is, none since since 1995 and no warming between 1980 and 1995, therefore no warming since 1980:

SourceNASA


These crooks try to wave off the warming by distracting readers with volcanoes and ENSO and the like.  It's complete nonsense what they are writing.  Look at the chart.  The volcanoes we've had this past century hardly make a dent on the decadal time scale.  Unless you know where to look, you can barely see them in the chart above among the random noise of weather.  And there's no ENSO now but it's still as hot as ever.

It's not just the air around us that's heating up.  Click here to see how much the oceans have heated up, how fast sea levels are rising and how much the Arctic sea ice has disintegrated.

Rogues like Anthony Watts and his cronies would have us all dead from heat exhaustion or starvation before they'd admit just how wrong they are.  But it's getting harder and harder for them to retain credibility even among what used to be their supporters, with stuff they are spouting these days.



PS Tamino has recently written an article about similar nonsense from the GWPF, with analysis.

7 comments:

  1. It doesn't seem to me that they are actually saying "it hasn't warmed since 1980". The closest they get is "Removing this volcanic signal also reduces the statistical significance of the rise in temperature seen since 1980."

    The end is quite funny:

    "Removing this noise is tricky, but without it there is a hint, just a hint, that sans El Nino/La Nina effects and volcanic dips, the global temperature might be reducing. As usual, five more years of data will be fascinating to analyse."

    Maybe somebody already tried.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Whitehouse is trying a shuffle trick. He's arguing "no significant warming from 80 to 95" and "no significant warming from 95 to 2013". I conflated them because IMO that's the message he's trying to get across.

      It's like saying if you take the escalator instead of the elevator to go from the first floor to the third, you won't rise as high with the escalator. Dumb.

      Delete
    2. Even going from peak to trough as they do and ignoring the trend, they still can't achieve what they want. Which is why they don't do the maths. Though they should know the 8% Dismissives would look at an upward slope and if someone says it's going down they'll believe them.

      (justthefactswuwt put up a chart with a upsloping trend line the other day and said it was going down. They are all nuts at WUWT.)

      Delete
    3. Yes, that we have had a similar "hiatus" during 1980-1995 should be food for thought. That "hiatus" certainly didn't mean that global warming had stopped. But they fail to connect the dots.

      Delete
  2. As the bible says "As the dog returns to his vomit, so the fool returns to his folly."

    John Cook said recently that deniers were not changing their minds - as they run out of arguments so they are reviving old ones.

    Now we are back at "It's not happening!".

    ReplyDelete
  3. They don't mention that their "plateau in surface temperatures" has an obvious and unavoidable upward tilt, to the Hottest Year in the Global Record. Which is 2010 in HadCRUT4 and NOAA NCDC; and 2005/2010 (tie) in NASA GISS.

    Such a visualization has no statistical significance. But it does limit their period of "no warming" to the thereafter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What I always found amusing (in a slightly disturbing way) are the post that show various wiggles in the data (whatever the data might be) and then associate these various wiggles with something (Sun, El Nino, Volcanoes) but completely ignore the very obvious upward trend in the data. It's as if being able to associate some wiggle in the data is enough to prove it's all natural.

      Delete

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AGU Fall Meeting 2014



Click here for instructions on how to view the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting sessions, how to navigate the program, plus more. (This notice will remain as a sticky until after AGU14 finishes.)