Sou 21 May 2014
Sheesh! How's this for unadulterated chart fudging. Roy Spencer has put up a chart and proclaimed (archived here):
...the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.
I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH):
Let's look at how he's conned his denier fans. Below I've plotted the CMIP5 composite mean against UAH and GISTemp using a 1981-2010 baseline, which is what UAH normally uses, and then I'll discuss what Roy Spencer has effectively done:
|Data Sources: NASA, UAH and KNMI Climate Explorer|
What he's effectively done is shifted the CMIP5 charts up by around 0.3 degrees. In case you find it hard to credit that even a contrarian scientist would stoop so low, here is Roy Spencer's chart, with my annotations:
|Adapted from Source: Roy Spencer|
|Data sources: UAH and Met Office Hadley Centre|
How did he fudge? What Roy Spencer has done is he's used a five year average - 1979-1983 to plot his data instead of the normal 30 year baseline. Why did he pick 1979 to 1983 as the baseline? The answer can only be that he wanted to deceive his readers. Here is a comparison of UAH and HadCRUT4 using his shonky five year baseline compared to his normal 30-year 1981-2010 baseline.
That's not all that he's done. If you compare the five year baseline chart I plotted with Roy's chart - his chart shows UAH lower than HadCRUT4 in every year. That's not what my chart above shows, even using his shonky 5-year baseline. Roy said he's using "running five year means" - which only shows the elaborate lengths he felt he had to go to in order to deceive people.
Anyway, to further illustrate Roy's shonkiness, here is the longer term CMIP5 and CMIP3 means vs GISTemp using the normal 30 year baseline:
|Data Sources: NASA and KNMI Climate Explorer|
The divergence only becomes apparent from around 2005. Going by Roy's past behaviour, I shouldn't be surprised at him fudging the data to this extent, but I am.
From the comments
Mostly fake sceptics who are all too keen to buy into Roy Spencer's deception (archived here).
david dohbro says:
February 7, 2014 at 11:03 AM
unfortunately most of our decisions are emotionally based; very few factual. These decisions range from the simplest thing of “what to put on my sandwich today” to those on a much grander scale “let’s declare war to a nation”…
February 7, 2014 at 11:34 AM
Thanks for this update on the State of the Planet.
February 7, 2014 at 11:59 AM
Regardsless of who is right or wrong we must all be glad that the worst predictions seems to have failed.
I sometimes wonder if the alarmist share this relief, somehow I have the feeling that many of them want the temperatures to increase just to prove themselves right.
Denier Don Easterbrook says:
February 7, 2014 at 12:10 PM
In 2000, I downloaded the IPCC temp prediction to 2100 from the official IPCC website showing a 1 F warming from 2000 to 2010. That curve has long since disappeared from the IPCC website (surprise, surprise!) and the deviations of their projections from measured temps from 2000 are much, much smaller. My question is–how much of the deviation of the modeled curves from 2000 has been back-casted, i.e., their original predictions changed to match what actually happened. If that is the case, then their prediction record is actually considerably more miserable than your curves show.
David A. says:
February 7, 2014 at 3:04 PM
Don, what document was the IPCC data from? Because all 5 ARs are available here:
I wrote to you twice about two weeks ago, asking for the data source for one of your charts. You never replied. What happened to data sharing?
February 7, 2014 at 1:09 PM
So 97.8% of climate models are wrong, somehow thats quite poetic. :)
Salvatore Del Prete says:
February 7, 2014 at 1:38 PM
Exactly, and as each month goes by they are more and more off.
Salvatore Del Prete is probably referring to this "not even wrong" prediction when he says:
February 7, 2014 at 1:39 PM
Don, if you read this I have been and continue to be in complete agreement with your climate assessment.