Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Hottest July on record - global surface temperature with year to date

Sou | 7:20 AM Go to the first of 36 comments. Add a comment
According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for July was 0.84 °C, which is 0.1 °C higher than the previous hottest July in 2011.

Because July is the hottest month of the year, I've seen it reported as the hottest month ever in recorded history!

The average for the seven months to the end of July is 1.06 °C, which is 0.25 °C higher than any previous January to July period. The previous highest was last year, which with the latest data had an anomaly of 0.81 °C.

There are now ten in a row of "hottest months" from October 2015 to July 2016 (that is, hottest October, hottest November etc). If we could look back over the entire Holocene, it's probably more than 7,000 years since there was a similar run of hottest months on record, that is, not since the Holocene climatic optimum (it's probably hotter now than it was back then).

Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to July each year. The 12 months to July 2016 averaged 1.02 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was 0.21 °C hotter than the 12 months to July 2015:
Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the 12 months to July each year. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

Below is a chart of the month of July only. Hover over the chart to see the anomaly in any July:

Figure 2 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the the month of July only. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

Will there be a La Niña?

You can see the global mean temperature trend by month in the chart below, for the strongest El Niño years since 1950, which were followed by a La Nina. I've included the 2015/16 period for comparison. The chance there will be a La Nina is getting lower with each ENSO update. If it happens, it is expected to be quite weak.

Not counting 2015/16, of the seven very strong, strong and strong to moderate El Ninos since 1950, there were only three that were followed by a La Nina. The chart spans a three year period. That is, for the 2015-16 El Niño and subsequent, it goes from January 2015 to December 2017. (For a more detailed explanation see the HW articles: El Niño to La Niña years with more detail here.)

Figure 3 | Global mean surface temperature for strong or moderate/strong El Nino years that were followed by a La Nina. Data source: GISS NASA

Where was it hot?

Again, the high latitudes in the northern hemisphere had areas with high anomalies this month but, as with May, they were not as high as last month. There are also some parts of Antarctica that were very, very hot for that part of the world, and some areas that were very very cold.

Figure 4 | Map showing mean surface temperature, anomalies for July, from the 1951-1980 mean. Source: GISS NASA

Below is June for comparison:

Figure 5 | Map showing mean surface temperature, anomalies for June, from the 1951-1980 mean. Source: GISS NASA

Year to date average surface temperature

The chart below tracks the year to date. Each point on the plot is the average of the year to that month. For 2016, the last point is the average of all months to date including July. This year is tracking well above 2015, partly because of the El Niño. To drop below the average for 2015, the average anomaly for the next five months would need to be around 0.6 °C or less:

Figure 5 | Global mean surface temperature, progressive year to date to July 2016. Data source. GISS NASA

The next six months would have to be the temperatures of 8 years ago...

Given the speculation that this will be another "hottest year", below is a chart showing the average temperature for the five months from August to December from 2000 onwards. To be cooler than last year, the average of the next five months would need to be about 0.6 C or cooler. Six of the last 16 years were below 0.6 C however the last time the average for those six months was below 0.6 C was eight years ago in 2008.

Figure 6 | Global mean surface temperature anomaly for the five months from August to December. The base period is 1951-1980. Data source: GISS NASA

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  1. On whether there will be or will not be a La Niña starting 2016, I think the JIASO PDO index for July will yield a clue. If the PDO stays high... no La Niña.

    1. PDO in at 1.25, down from 2.03. Could be the bottom for the year. AMO way up as the big blue blob shrinks. La Niña still stuck on neutral. Global Kooling just can't catch a break.

  2. At the rate temperatures are dropping, Earth will enter the next ice age in less then ten years. Burn more coal!!!

    (Tried to think like a contrarian. Didn't do much for me.)

  3. 0.6 C or cooler seems to be a long bow to draw...

    Say, though, that the August-December average is around 0.8 C - that still leaves the planet at about 0.95 C for the annual average - which is, quite frankly, disturbing. The more so for having idiots like Malcolm Roberts in our senate, influencing public thought as well as our political outcomes.

    1. yes that clip is on the BBC website

      frightening ignorance - and still replaying the old denier talking points, jeez what clowns

    2. I'm calling The Entity, Roberts: Malcolm-Ieuian, currently Manifesting as Senator Elect of the So-Called 'Australian Parliament', as the greatest loon sent to Canberra in the country's history. It's a big call, I know, but I reckon he takes the fruitcake...

      (Sorry, Cory, you miss out!)

    3. Its frightening ignorance at so many levels: including those incompetents at the BBC who continue to think you 'balance' facts with denial.

    4. What is truly scary is the completely upside down take of the Brian Cox segment at you know where. Staggering. And not in a good way ...

    5. At least he's not running for president.

    6. Oh, BJ, you are such a spoil sport. I'm sure our hostess had a rather entertaining post about our Malcolm lined up and you've spoiled the surprise for our oversea friends...


    7. Sorry R Anonymous. It has gone viral. The whole world is looking agog at the type of Senators Australia votes in!

      (He is a senator, right? As I type it sounds so unlikely.)

    8. Ha, I've just had a look at WTFUWT and I see Uncle Eric is proclaiming victory in the Roberts v Cox bout. Oh dear...


    9. Then that's another landmark denial moment for WUWT because the laughter of the audience indicates they viewed Roberts as an object of ridicule.

    10. I've just read the article regarding the Cox vs. Roberts debate, and watched the clips, on the ABC site. "I brought the graph!" from Cox is priceless. But, oh my, yer man Roberts has all the climate denial bingo talking points down pat:

      * Is there any evidence we are causing climate change?
      * The Pause (ignoring, of course, 2015 -2016 so far)
      * Throws the Feynman card
      * Temperature data is manipulated
      * Makes an appeal to false authority... Steve Goddard?!
      * Models are inaccurate, IPCC admits it
      * Temperature rise is causing CO₂ rise

      I think that's bingo. Most of these are lies/easily disproved given time. But in a live debate, before the scientist can explain to the audience why they are lies Roberts is already Gish-galloping towards the next impossible-to-refute-in-30-seconds lie (that Roberts' confirmation bias has convinced himself that it is actually true).

      We've seen it all before. Debates like this are virtually useless. In fact, they reinforce the false beliefs of the deniers more than they do anything else :-\

    11. I did not see the whole program, only the clip on the BBC, hopefully the panel ridiculed him for being a conspiritard - I would have pushed him on how far it went, NASA obviously (they have form after all) , the MET office presumably, along with the WMO, - the great thing about conspiracies is that they are like black holes for any rational thought

      So it goes without saying all the worlds leading Universities are in on this "scam" too, we may have ended up with Lizard people

    12. It might be safer to have idiots like Roberts in the senate, so more people can supervise him. He seems to be a climate obsessive, a one trick monkey...wonder whether he can apply himself more rationally to other issues. The signs are not good.

    13. 'The signs are not good.'

      Um, that would, indeed, be a no -

      "I, Malcolm-Ieuian: Roberts., the living soul has not seen or been presented with any material facts or evidence that the Commonwealth of Australia CIK# 000805157 is not a corporation registered on the United States of America securities exchange, is not a society and is not a trustee in the public trust, and believe that none exist." (sic throughout)

      I promise you, people, that students of Agnotology will benefit greatly from reading that link I posted upthread. And from bearing in mind that even Andrew Bolt disavowed Roberts' stuff.

      You ever been to Jo Nova's site? Think like that. But in a parliament. Potentially holding the balance of power. Ye Gods!...

    14. He is a total nutter! Bert

    15. So Roberts has dabbled with the concept of being 'outside' society...probably because it does not meet his standards ...perhaps he should step down from the senate...because there's no proof that he's returned from the outlands, hehe

      And the idiot thinks there's no warming because the data has been doctored...how does he know it hasn't been doctored to minimise warming as much as 'they' thought 'they' could get away with??

      If it's conspiracy, he can't know what the bloody GMST is...

      What a loon.

    16. I'm still trying to figure out where Roberts gets his data from if all the data out there has been doctored.

    17. He actually said:

      "I, Malcolm-Ieuian: Roberts., the living soul has not seen or been presented with any material facts or evidence that the Commonwealth of Australia CIK# 000805157 is not a corporation registered on the United States of America securities exchange, is not a society and is not a trustee in the public trust, and believe that none exist."


      I'd heard a rumor that a recently elected Australian politician was a full-on American-style Sovereign Citizen type but hadn't really quite believed it. Wow. We've put our latest batch of overly obnoxious SovCits (the Bundy Bunch who occupied Malheur National Wildlife last January, and before that were responsible for running federal agents off federal land in Nevada) in jail, not the Senate.

    18. He claims he's never heard of the SovCits, which is, um, plausible, or, at least, as plausible as any of his other utterances.

      "The Woman, Julia-Eileen: Gillard., acting as The Honourable JULIA EILEEN GILLARD
      Prime Minister of Australia...

      I, Malcolm-Ieuan: Roberts., the living soul has not seen or been presented with any material facts or evidence that I, Malcolm-Ieuan: Roberts., the living soul am not living in a free and equal society or should pay for it in some further spurious tax levied supposedly on carbon dioxide, and believe that none exist.

      From the article:

      I think it's a small cabal of prominent international banks that are driving this and they have already admitted that they're seeking to gain trillions of dollars in trading carbon dioxide paper credits," Senator Roberts said."

      The space ships land at dawn. Wake up, sheeple!

    19. ahah - that SovCit stuff sound like the Freemen on the Land rubbish


      it is THE most idiotic (but amusing) conspiracy theory out there

    20. I'll point out the link to Graham Readfearn's piece that's just appeared, that highlighting Roberts being paid out in... wait for it... The Oz!

      'As the exchange on Q&A last night proved, once a conspiracy theorist, nothing can fault your logic and rationale — simply because there is no logic and rationale so your thinking is immutable. In many ways Q&A was a humiliating and belittling experience for everyone concerned — studio and TV audiences, panellists, Tony Jones alike. Obviously someone who believes NASA is manipulating climate data is a complete nutter.'

      Well, obviously.

      But, lest you are now thinking you must surely have fallen right down the rabbit hole, this is from the higher education supplement, a small bastion of sanity in what's otherwise the flagship of the Murdochracy's War on Science (Antipodean Front).

      But, still... Denial, like its cousin Trumpism, really has reached peak absurdity. There is no 'down' to go. It has no 'case', if rationality is really central to the human project. That doesn't mean it can't 'win', it does mean any victory can only come about because, turns out, for a majority, the Enlightenment didn't happen...

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  5. In my former life at work I used to fly to Japan and the US to collect data at synchrotrons once or twice a year.
    My younger brother was a Captain for QANTAS and used to get me into the cockpit by emailing the flight crew. I used to take my brother to go flying in lighties when he was only a teenager.

    One of the things all these flight crews told me about most other people who had the chance to sit with them, was how ignorant they were.

    Typical comments.

    You don't seem to be doing much.

    If the plane flies itself why do you get paid so much?

    And many more just like this some so stupid and illogical that they are impossible to remember. Like deniers they condemned themselves by their abject ignorance.

    I spent many hours in the front of a 747 with some of the best professional flyers in the world. The curious thing was they wanted to talk about the science I was doing and I just wanted to talk about flying.

    I wonder if hyphen colon Roberts would insist he could fly a 747 better than the flight crew with a bit of googling.


  6. Not sure about the rest of Australia, but the weather in my corner is exactly like that of late spring, rather than late winter. If this extrapolates to the rest of the planet, this August will also be the hottest ever.

    How much more weather like this do the Dunningly-Krugered climate science deniers need before they are completely and abjectly wrong and have perpetrated, with their promulgation of delay, crimes against the only known life in the universe?

    1. I'm in northern NSW...June and July both well above the night and day means

  7. Replies
    1. Talk about through the looking glass! Yeah, the guy whose argument rests on the idea that NASA fiddle the books 'owned' the actual science guy holding up the actual science graph, and that modern-era graph was 'cherry-picking'! And they really believe it!

      It's clear that the only people left on the 'skeptical' side are the shiny-eyed zealots literally incapable of imagining a world in which their internally-contradictory 'credo' could ever be wrong.

      I'm reminded of Russell's 'the fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.'

    2. Won't make any promises to write or not write about this (short of time right now). In the meantime, some of you might have missed this excellent and very sad cartoon from First Dog on the Moon.

    3. That First Dog on the Moon comic is really good, Sou, although depressing as you say. I really liked: "In the old days, scientists used to have families and mortgages like normal people, now they can't even fill the spa in their hummer with Krug any more."

      Another web comic I have to start reading...

    4. First Dog is a national treasure.

    5. Climate Change Deniers are the Creationists of the 21st Century.

      There will remain an enduring nub of intellectually rigid individuals who, no matter what catastrophes might befall us, will continue to deny that we - or, more specifically, their most beloved fetish, the Free Market™, and, in many cases, the Loving God™ that bestowed it - had anything to do with it.

      Such people can only be mocked and ignored, because arguing with them is futile. Look at Roberts' shiny-eyed zeal, take a trip to WUWT, Bishop Hill's or Jo Nova's - such people can only be quarantined, they cannot be converted.

    6. Creationists remain the creationists of the 21st century. As science advances, there's more and more policy that depends on science, so there's more to usefully deny.


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