According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for June was 0.79 °C, which just pipped June 2015 (0.78 C) and June 1998 (0.77 °C). Last month is only the second time in nine months that the GISTemp monthly anomaly is less than one degree Celsius above the average from 1951-1980. It probably won't be the last, now that El Nino is over.
The average for the six months to the end of June is 1.09 °C, which is 0.28 °C higher than any previous January to June period. The previous highest was last year, which with the latest data had an anomaly of 0.81 °C.
There are now nine in a row of "hottest months" from October 2015 to June 2016 (that is, hottest October, hottest November etc). If we could look back over the entire Holocene, it's probably more than 7,000 years since there was a similar run of hottest months on record, that is, not since the Holocene climatic optimum (it's probably hotter now than it was back then).
Each of the previous months except May and June this year (that is, from October to April inclusive) had an anomaly more than one degree Celsius above the 1951-1980 mean. All of the previous months had an anomaly higher than any month outside of that October to April period.
Below is a chart of the month of June only. Hover over the chart to see the anomaly in any June:
Will there be a La Niña?
You can see the global mean temperature trend by month in the chart below, for the strongest El Niño years since 1950, which were followed by a La Nina. I've included the 2015/16 period for comparison. The chance there will be a La Nina is getting lower with each ENSO update. If it happens, it is expected to be quite weak.
Not counting 2015/16, of the seven very strong, strong and strong to moderate El Ninos since 1950, there were only three that were followed by a La Nina. The chart spans a three year period. That is, for the 2015-16 El Niño and subsequent, it goes from January 2015 to December 2017. (For a more detailed explanation see the HW articles: El Niño to La Niña years with more detail here.)
|Figure 3 | Global mean surface temperature for strong or moderate/strong El Nino years that were followed by a La Nina. Data source: GISS NASA|
Where was it hot?
Again, the high latitudes in the northern hemisphere had areas with high anomalies this month but, as with May, they were not as high as last month. There are also some parts of Antarctica that were very, very hot for that part of the world, and some areas that were very very cold.
|Figure 4 | Map showing mean surface temperature, anomalies for June, from the 1951-1980 mean. Source: GISS NASA|
Below is May for comparison:
|Figure 5 | Map showing mean surface temperature, anomalies for May, from the 1951-1980 mean. Source: GISS NASA|
Year to date average surface temperature
The chart below tracks the year to date. Each point on the plot is the average of the year to that month. For 2016, the last point is the average of all months to date including June. This year is tracking well above 2015, largely because of the El Niño. To drop below the average for 2015, the average anomaly for the next six months would need to be less than 0.65 °C:
|Figure 5 | Global mean surface temperature, progressive year to date to June 2016. Data source. GISS NASA|
Given the speculation that this will be another "hottest year", below is a chart showing the average temperature for the six months from July to December from 2000 onwards. Nine of the last 16 years were below 0.65 C. The last time the average for those six months was below 0.65 C was in 2011, the second year of a moderate to strong La Nina.
Related HotWhopper articles
- El Niño to La Niña years - May 2016 with more detail here
- Hottest May on record with year to date temperature - June 2016
- Seven in a row: April is the hottest April on record, a 7000 year record? - May 2016
- Hottest March on record, tracking El Niño, and a year to date comparison - April 2016
- Hottest February by far at a whopping 1.35 C above the 1951-1980 mean - March 2016
- Hottest January on record, with El Niño years comparison - February 2016