According to GISS NASA, the average global surface temperature anomaly for October was 0.89 °C, which is the second hottest October on record, and 0.18 °C lower than the hottest October in 2015. This is despite the fact that NOAA has announced a La Nina advisory.
The average for the nine months to the end of October is 1.02 °C, which is 0.19 °C higher than the previous hottest January to October period in 2015, which with the latest data had an anomaly of 0.83 °C.
Here is a chart of the average of 12 months to October each year. The 12 months to October 2016 averaged 1.03 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and was 0.21 °C hotter than the 12 months to October 2015:
Is there a La Niña?
You can see the global mean temperature trend by month in the chart below, for the strongest El Niño years since 1950, which were followed by a La Nina. I've included the 2015/16 period for comparison. NOAA has announced a La Nina advisory. The BoM ENSO update is still on watch status (it never came off).
Not counting 2015/16, of the seven very strong, strong and strong to moderate El Ninos since 1950, there were only three that were followed by a La Nina. The chart spans a three year period. That is, for the 2015-16 El Niño and subsequent, it goes from January 2015 to December 2017, or would if the data allowed. (For a more detailed explanation see the HW articles: El Niño to La Niña years with more detail here.)
|Figure 3 | Global mean surface temperature for strong or moderate/strong El Nino years that were followed by a La Nina. Data source: GISS NASA|
Where was it hot?
Last month it was very hot in the Arctic. There was a part of the northern mid-latitudes over Russia that was rather cool, also Australia.
|Figure 4 | Map showing mean surface temperature, anomalies for October, from the 1951-1980 mean. Source: GISS NASA|
|Figure 5 | Map showing mean surface temperature, anomalies for September, from the 1951-1980 mean. Source: GISS NASA|
Year to date average surface temperature
The chart below tracks the year to date. Each point on the plot is the average of the year to that month. For 2016, the last point is the average of all months to date including October. This year is tracking well above 2015, partly because of the El Niño and partly because of the extraordinary warmth in the Arctic. To drop below the average for 2015, the average anomaly for the next
|Figure 6 | Global mean surface temperature, progressive year to date to October 2016. Data source. GISS NASA|
The next two months would have to be the temperatures of 32 years ago...
Given the expectation that this will be another "hottest year", below is a chart showing the average temperature for the two months from November to December from 2000 onwards. The last time the November to December average was 0.11 C or less and that was 32 years ago in 1984. (The blue line is the average year to date for 2016.)
Related HotWhopper articles
- Hottest September on record - October 2016
- Crikey! Hottest August on record - vies with July for hottest month ever - September 2016
- Hottest July on record - global surface temperature with year to date - August 2016
- Hottest June on record - global surface temperature with year to date - July 2016
- El Niño to La Niña years - May 2016 with more detail here
- Hottest May on record with year to date temperature - June 2016
- Seven in a row: April is the hottest April on record, a 7000 year record? - May 2016
- Hottest March on record, tracking El Niño, and a year to date comparison - April 2016
- Hottest February by far at a whopping 1.35 C above the 1951-1980 mean - March 2016
- Hottest January on record, with El Niño years comparison - February 2016