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Tuesday, November 4, 2014

"Screams" of an ice age cometh at WUWT, because it snowed in autumn

Sou | 12:19 AM Go to the first of 27 comments. Add a comment


Oh dear. Anthony Watts has another ice age cometh article at WUWT, complete with video (archived here). [Note: In the article below, where I link to the video, the link goes to the spot that I reference.]

Anthony writes - he just copied and pasted this from YouTube:

100 Year Snow Records broken across the South Eastern US on October 31st and November 01st. It was the earliest and heaviest snow in several places since records have been kept dating as far back as 1880. Reduced sunspot count shows Solar hibernation is occurring along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) showing a cooling Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) Atlantic Ocean temperature is predicted to fall by 2020, which screams of cooling events to take place globally.

"Screams of cooling events globally"? Really? Just because a few places in the USA had a record early snowfall? This just after the hottest September on record globally?

Let's see what really happened. We'll go to John Coleman's old stomping ground, the Weather Channel:
Up to 21 inches of snow has fallen in parts of Maine from a storm system that earlier brought an unprecedented early-season snow to parts of South Carolina on the first day of November. 

The first snow in parts of South Carolina was the earliest on record. Again, from the Weather Channel:
Snow was observed Saturday as far south and east as Charleston, South Carolina, the earliest flakes on record in the city. This occurred less than three days after a string of four straight days in the mid-upper 80s. Places like Folly Beach and downtown Charleston picked up a trace of snowfall. 

But it doesn't mean an ice age cometh. Did you see that? The snow fell less than three days after "four straight days in the mid to upper 80s"? Now that doesn't sound too chilly does it. What about Maine. From the Weather Channel:
In northern Maine, interestingly, this first measurable snow is just a tad later than average. Caribou sees its first measurable snow by Oct. 23 in an average season.

The first snow was later than usual in northern Maine. That certainly doesn't sound like any ice age comething. Thing is, there were a few places that recorded the earliest snow on record. There was a lot of snow in some parts, too. The snow and wind wreaked havoc in some parts of Maine according to the Weather Channel:
Snow and wind had knocked out power to some 130,000 customers in Maine alone as of Sunday evening as the heavy wet snow and 40-mph gusts brought down tree limbs and power lines. The counties of Penobscot, Hancock, Knox and Lincoln have been hardest hit thus far. The state governor declared a state of emergency and one power utility declared a "system emergency" due to the damage. Scroll down for the latest snow forecast.

How long will the cold weather last? Not long according to the Weather Channel:
Warm air will quickly return to the Northeast in the wake of this storm, but it may be slowed by all the snow cover in Maine. By Wednesday, however, highs in the 60s may make it as far north as Portland, Maine. 

Highs in the 60s. That doesn't sound too chilly for autumn. Whatever happened to the screams of global cooling? Where the heck has this ice age disappeared to?

Global warming means more water in the atmosphere, which means more snow and rain. It's not the cold it's the precipitation. The Weather Channel barely mentioned temperature, it was focused on the snowfalls, which in some parts of the USA were the earliest recorded, and in parts was quite heavy.

In a vain effort to persuade viewers that an ice age cometh, the video at WUWT showed a prediction from a Russian scientist made in 2012, that Earth will start to cool in 2014. Well, it's getting a bit late for that now, isn't it. Another failed denier prediction with the globe on track to have one of its warmest years on record.

In another part of the video, he put up this chart  from NOAA, which is the global temperature anomaly for the three month NH winter period ending in February 2014 (although he said it was for one year from December 2013 - it's not):


Now why would he pick last winter out I wonder. According to NOAA, last northern hemisphere winter was the "eighth highest on record for this period, at 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F). The Northern Hemisphere had its eighth warmest winter and the Southern Hemisphere tied with 2005 and 2013 for its sixth warmest summer in the 135-year period of record." That sure doesn't seem like any ice age is comething.

Perhaps it was the best he could manage. He couldn't very well pick the latest chart, could he. September was the hottest September on record, according to NOAA.




From the WUWT comments


The comments are coming in dribs and drabs. I didn't see anyone overly impressed by the predictions of an ice age or screams of cooling events. I guess they are getting a bit tired of all these promises not being delivered as expected.

JustAnotherPoster is ho hum about it all, even with the sarc tag:
November 3, 2014 at 2:02 am
This isn’t Climate change its just weather. Move Along Nothing to see here. Its what to be expected in a warming world, as warmer weather = more snow as the. Ahem. /scar.
You can’t ascribe one single weather event to prove global warming etc. etc.

orkneygal probably has a point:
November 3, 2014 at 2:16 am
The snow is warmer due to global warming. Were it not for global warming, the snow would be much, much colder, Just ask the kidz at SkS.

Bloke down the pub is more worried about the trees than about any old ice age:
November 3, 2014 at 2:47 am
Deciduous trees that are still in leaf have a nasty tendency to break when covered in snow. Hope they survived this event.

One of our previous visitors pops up. Dan Pangburn writes:
November 3, 2014 at 3:47 am
During the planet warmup, which continued through the 20th century, land warmed faster than the oceans. During the cool down, land will (initially) cool faster than the oceans. It looks to be happening.
The two drivers that explain climate change with 95% correlation since before 1900 and why CO2 change is not a driver are shown at [redacted link. Been there, done that.]

Bruce Cobb must be talking about something he saw in the video.
November 3, 2014 at 4:25 am
The growing-food-in-cities thing sounds a bit New Age whacky.

27 comments :

  1. I really do find blog posts about imminent ice ages to be most alarmist. 'Alarmist' meaning, "inventing or spreading false or exaggerated rumours of impending danger or catastrophe" (dictionary definition).

    By contrast the IPCC's reports are based in detailed scientific observations and represent our best understanding of the current and likely future effects of climate change, so invention and exaggeration form no part of them. So unlikely is it that they don't even bother to mention the possibility of a future ice age.

    ReplyDelete
  2. On today's WUWT frontpage

    IPCC Prediction Of Severe Weather Increase Based On Fundamental Error

    Follows

    100 Year Snow Records broken across the South Eastern US on October 31st and November 01st


    Honestly, you couldn't make it up.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "bloke down the pub" is actually worried about something that matters. There's a few leaves left here in Montreal; 500 miles South of us there must be many.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These days some of our deciduous trees still have leaves half way into the first month of winter. Some of the shrubs in my garden have had a second flowering in autumn this past couple of years. I think it's known as climate weirding.

      Delete
    2. In October 2011 my wife and I were in NYC. Trees were only just turning and so the leaf drop was late. It was delightful time to be there. Then early snows hit the NE corridor and trees fell over from NJ to NH. Connecticut's power was shut down for about a week. It cost billions.

      Delayed leaf drops combined with a wobbly Jet Stream or a dipping Polar Vortex is a very big deal.

      Delete
  4. Let's see if I can summarize the deeply consistent scientific approach taken by our 'skeptical' friends...

    Record heat and drought in California: It's just weather. California's always had droughts. And it's just one state.

    Record heat in Australia: It's just weather. Australia's always been hot. And it's the smallest continent.

    Powerful snowstorm hits the eastern U.S. on November 1st: SO MUCH FOR GLOBAL WARMING HAHAHAHAHA

    ReplyDelete
  5. This happens all the time. It snows somewhere and the globe is "cooling". A local TV weather personality has been flogging the South Carolina snow as though it's some major outbreak. And we're in Pennsylvania, so SC is well outside the viewing area! Funny, though, he (and the others) have ignored these data from NCDC:

    Global daily record high vs. low ratios:

    Last 365 days - 1.11:1
    Last 30 days - 3.22:1
    Last 7 days - 9.86:1

    Yes, the latter are relatively small time periods, but I think the planet may be about to remind us that it's 1) not happy and 2) completely in charge.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I find myself wondering how often an Ice Age is immediately preceeded by so many 'hottest moths'.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Correct me if I'm wrong, but ice ages occur not when there's a lot of snow, or when it snows early, but rather when summer doesn't get warm enough to melt the snow. Then you start to have year-on-year build up of snow that compacts into ice.

    cabc

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are right of course. We could add that the process begins with snow at high north latitude (65N is often quoted).

      Delete
    2. Yeah, yeah but that's the old kind of ice age, the one with ice that's kilometres thick. This is a new kind of ice age with ice a few millimetres thick that lasts until tuesday. You have to think outside the box.

      Delete
  8. So I guess it would be impolite to point out that Tassie had bushfires - in the south(!) - a month ago, businesses and houses suffered from fires in the Blue Mountains last week and South Australia lost a CFS volunteer in the same week. It was 'only' a 4000 acre/ 1600 hectare fire mostly on farmland, but still.

    These three states are looking to reset their fire danger periods to start a month earlier and finish a month later from now on.

    I know it's rude, so I won't mention any of those things.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Country record Holland for the month of November went on the 1st.
    Year 2014 in this country is now set to obliterate the hottest years till now (scored way back in 2006 and 2007) by a margin of near half a degree.
    The entire year's climatology belonging to some 700 km lower latitude like Bordeaux, including total lack of winter (first winter ever without any sub-zero day averages).
    What's more, the weather here got just as boring as any subtropical holiday paradise.

    ReplyDelete
  10. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rum Runner. I expect your post will disappear soon ...

      Here in the UK it has just been reported as the wettest and warmest year since records began. So how does that work?

      Have NOAA really made it difficult to find that data? Or was it not quite where you expected? Or in a slightly different format? I do not think there is a conspiracy there.


      Delete
    2. @Rum Runner

      There is nothing strange about saying since records began. It is just to differentiate from earlier estimates. A phrase that has been around as long as I can remember.

      Why on earth would you postulate that an ordinary phrase is linked to your alleged loss of a web page? Sounds conspiratorial to me.

      Delete
    3. potholer54 has a video how to deal with people like RR. here

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YezbREhH_Eg&list=UUljE1ODdSF7LS9xx9eWq0GQ

      It is far more effective than any emotive response. Bert

      Delete
    4. That's a great lesson and reminder, Bert. I recall trying something like that with Jim Steele a while ago but he wouldn't play. I put the same point to him over and over and he kept trying to dodge it. I ended up confining him to the HotWhoppery until he responded - but he never did.

      Tom Harris was another one who got all tied up in knots.

      Where I went wrong was coming across as a know-it-all with all the answers, which is a bad habit of mine. Next time (if I remember) I'll just ask the questions. If I don't remember, please remind me ;D

      To quote a great not so humble man: "It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am" :)

      Delete
    5. It just doesn't work. As Sou describes, and as RR and countless others have confirmed, asking questions simply produces serial evasions. As soon as you get anywhere near a point the "sceptic" doesn't want to address, they flatly refuse to engage. And around and around you dance, until your feet get tired and patience is exhausted.

      In its way, this is fascinating as it reveals just how vanishingly rare are genuine sceptics in the climate "debate".

      Delete
    6. It works insofar as those sitting on the fence will realise that the deniers have no evidence or real answers. I don't think it will turn many true deniers but those who are properly sceptical might be swayed.

      Delete
    7. "...it reveals just how vanishingly rare are genuine sceptics..."

      We are vanishing? :(

      Delete
    8. Sorry, JD. I'll tighten that up:

      In its way, this is fascinating as it reveals just how vanishingly rare are genuine sceptics on the contrarian side of the climate "debate".

      Delete
  11. I stupidly forgot to say that Sou already does this with surgical precision. Bert

    ReplyDelete
  12. Sometimes it helps to tell the tiger you are riding 'do not slow down so you can eat me!' Bert

    ReplyDelete

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