Update: David Rose of the Daily Mail attempts to deny his own article. See below.
Anthony Watts made a headline (archived here) from a quote from Judith Curry in an article by David Rose in the Daily Mail (archived here). His headline:
‘The Arctic sea ice spiral of death seems to have reversed’
Did Judith really make such a wild claim? Seriously? It is there in black and white. Not that you can believe anything in the Daily Mail. Then again, you can't take anything that Judith Curry says as credible without checking, either.
Anthony quotes the Daily Mail's dumb headline, referring to the record low year, 2012:
Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometres MORE than 2 years ago…despite Al Gore’s prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now.If you didn't know how the denialati operated you'd probably be stunned alright. Stunned at their stupidity.
By the way, Al Gore didn't "predict" any such thing. David Rose claimed that in his Nobel speech Al Gore said:
The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. ‘The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,’ he said. ‘It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.’
That can at best be described as journalistic licence. What Al Gore actually said was reporting what others had said, mentioning 22 years as well as 7 years. From his Nobel Prize speech:
Last September 21, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years..
Seven years from now.
What neither Anthony nor David Rose point out is that the Arctic sea ice is closely following the same trajectory as 2013. Yes, that's right. The summer sea ice extent is very similar to that from last year. There is no reversal.
Here is the chart from JAXA, with lots of years. This year is similar to 2013 and 2010. Click to enlarge or click here to go to the source (choose the old style of plot to see more years).
And here is the chart from NSIDC, showing that Arctic sea ice is within two standard deviations but still well below the mean of recent years:
Arctic sea ice extent is well below average, and large areas of low concentration ice are observed in the Beaufort Sea and along the Siberian coast. However, it is highly unlikely to set a record low at the end of this year’s melt season. Antarctic sea ice extent remains at record highs.
Neven's Arctic Sea Ice blog is the place to go to discuss all things icy. The NSIDC's regular updates are excellent to stay up to date. WUWT and the Daily Mail are very dubious sources for information about anything.
Yesterday David Rose contradicted what he wrote for the Daily Mail, and tweeted this:
@ret_ward @curryja you clearly haven't read it properly. It suggests decline may be slowing, not stopping. You sure it's not, guru Bob?
— David Rose (@DavidRoseUK) August 31, 2014
From the WUWT comments
There was one person who wrote a reasonable comment. Peter Grace wrote:
August 30, 2014 at 8:13 pmTo which misguided Anthony Watts replied:
David Rose is doing his old trick of using record low extents as his baseline. 2007 and then 2012 were record lows so any return to the trend line looks like a recovery. But that’s not the story at all. The Arctic is still losing ice sheets and sea ice.
The trend line continues in the wrong direction.
August 30, 2014 at 8:36 pm
No, not David Appell, Peter Grace is a valid commenter, though perhaps misguided.
mark l is a climate conspiracy theorist:
August 30, 2014 at 7:44 pm
Today the LA times had an article on arctic sea ice and the fact that it was expanding sooner and greater than usual. Even though in the article sub headline they said “scientists aren’t sure how” it went on to blame it on AGW. More theories about increased winds as a result of warming being the culprit. What will it take for people to understand the scam?
Mark1 is topsy turvy and thinks Antarctica is in the Arctic. Here is a link to the article about Antarctica in the LA Times, to which he was referring. An excerpt:
The westerly winds blow fierce and constant around Antarctica, isolating the continent in a kind of permanent polar vortex. Scientists think they exert the most direct control over the state of Antarctic sea ice.
Ice requires cold temperatures to form, and winds help it grow by blowing it around the polar ocean. When the ice moves, new water is exposed to the chilly air, creating an opportunity to make more ice.
In the landlocked Arctic, winter sea ice gets hemmed in by Russia, Greenland, Canada and Alaska, said Thorsten Markus, head of cryospheric sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. But in the Antarctic, unflagging winds push ice ever farther into the empty Southern Ocean.
Eric Worrall reckons any more and an ice age will cometh:
August 30, 2014 at 7:45 pm
Goodness, Arctic ice recovering rapidly, Antarctic hitting a new record every other year. Much more of this global warming and we’ll be in an ice age.
Katherine thinks dangerous rapid global warming is a good thing
August 30, 2014 at 8:56 pm
You call freezing the right direction?! Ice ages have been worse for humanity than climate optima. There’s nothing wrong with having trees in the Arctic region, where they used to grow.
Robert Austin likes making up stuff:
August 30, 2014 at 9:04 pm
How does that compare to the old trick of starting the Arctic ice extents record at a cherry picked 1979. anybody who has perused AR1 knows that the satellite record began in 1973 and Arctic ice extent rose substantially to a peak in 1979 before the allegedly precipitous and apocalyptic decrease to modern extents. Trend limes depend on starting points, don’t you know?
Robert is wrong about two things. Consistent satellite records of Arctic sea ice are only for the period since 1979. Any records from before then are (presumably) considered unreliable. Here is a chart of Arctic sea ice, going back to the 1953, from NSIDC, on which I've roughly marked the ice extent for 1973 and 1979:
|Adapted from NSIDC|
jim Steele gets over-excited and uses lots of exclamation points to make his wrong point:
August 30, 2014 at 9:09 pm
Arctic sea ice is acting just like natural cycles would predict!!!
No Jim. With natural cycles on their own (without human-induced warming) no scientist would have predicted sea ice extent as low as it is now. There is no plausible mechanism by which the ice extent could get so low without factoring CO2-driven warming. For example, this paper suggests only a small amount of the changes in Arctic sea ice can be attributed to the AMO.