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Thursday, June 6, 2013

Joseph D’Aleo Fails Meteorology 101 on WUWT

Sou | 6:42 PM 5 Comments - leave a comment


...and outs himself as a conspiracy theorist


Anthony Watts has posted an article on WUWT by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, Weatherbell Analytics who thinks that carbon dioxide doesn't obey the laws of physics.  For someone who's supposed to be a trained meteorologist he displays a remarkable level of ignorance.  His article is a real gish gallop with no supporting evidence or links to data to support his erroneous claims.

Do all the commenters shriek loudly:- "Proof, Joe, where's your proof.  Where are the links to your assertions?" like they do when someone says "the globe is warming?" Nope, not at all.  Finally a couple of people protest mildly and then Steven Mosher comes in and has a go at him.  I'll just pick a couple of Joseph's "wrongs".

Joseph writes:
1) Warming not ‘global’. It is shown in satellite data to be northern hemisphere only
 (2) It is now not warming. Warming (global mean and northern hemisphere) stopped in the 1990s

You're wrong, Joe.  Warming is still happening and warming is global.  It didn't stop in the 1990s. The northern hemisphere warming isn't offset by cooling in the southern hemisphere. Both hemispheres are warming.  It's warming more in the northern hemisphere overall just as expected, because that's where there is more land (the southern hemisphere is mostly ocean), plus there is Arctic amplification. (Click chart to enlarge.)

Source: NASA GISTemp


(3) Models suggest atmosphere should warm 20% faster than surface but surface warming was 33% faster during the time satellites and surface observations used. This suggests GHG theory wrong, and surface temperature contaminated.

No.  Joe, you can't get rid of the physical properties of a greenhouse gas quite as easily as that.  You've considered one possibility, which would mean the tried and tested physical properties of greenhouse gases are 'wrong' (too silly for words) and/or that all the different data sets except one are wrong and/or that all the thermometers around the world stopped working all at the same time.

I've got an idea.  Wouldn't the first place you'd look be the single satellite instrumentation?  It's a only a single source rather than thousands of sources.  It's been badly wrong before.


I can't be bothered with the rest.  It's mostly a mixture of paranoid conspiracy theorising and strawmen.  Making up stuff that some "alarmist" is supposed to have said so he can say - "ha, didn't happen".  Typical dumb denier ranting.  There's no evidence Joseph has read any of the science.  He could have got all his talking points from one of those paranoid conspiracy theory denier sites like Jo Nova's.

Even some of the WUWT deniers find it over the top.  What's fun is that they are bending over backwards to try to explain that while they agree with Joseph that the greenhouse gas theory is wrong that doesn't mean they think that the greenhouse effect isn't real.  Something to do with not wanting to be banned as "slayers" I expect.

5 comments:

  1. You did better than I did. You at least rebutted two of his claims. It all seemed so absurd, that I didn't really know where to start, so didn't even get round to doing that much :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had all his points down and was going to go through them one by one, but it became apparent that his main argument against the physics is that the thousands of scientists throughout all the world plus all the world's weather bureaus are secretly plotting together, presumably to take over the world or some such nonsense.

      He's probably not got the gift of evolution-denier Duane Gish, but you've gotta give him points for trying.

      Delete
  2. Replies
    1. That it is. D'Aleo's claim is clearly nonsense:

      1) Warming not ‘global’. It is shown in satellite data to be northern hemisphere only

      SH GAT and SH UAH TLT

      (Note: the curve labelled "SH Temp" is GISTEMP SH).

      Delete
    2. In the interests of eyesight and sanity, same graph but 5yr running means and without OLS linear fits:

      SH GAT and SH UAH TLT

      Delete

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