Moaning about the demise of Maurice Newman, Australia's high profile climate conspiracy theorist

On Anthony Watts' climate conspiracy blog WUWT, Eric Worrall is moaning about Maurice Newman (archived here). In another move showing that he does take climate change seriously (albeit within political constraints), Australia's new Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, will not be re-appointing Maurice to the Prime Minister's Business Advisory Council, which he chaired under Tony Abbott.

Maurice Newman is an uber conspiracy theorist of the Tim Ball kind. I've written about his wacky ideas on a number of occasions. He's not just a denier, he's a hard core conspiracy nutter who thinks, for example, that the sustainability action plan, Agenda 21, is some sort of evil plot. Eric Worrall couldn't be more wrong when he writes:

Releasing outspoken skeptic Maurice Newman from his advisory role seems unlikely to help Turnbull’s credibility on climate issues. 

Contrary to what Eric thinks, it will be a relief to almost everyone. I'd say most especially to the other members of the council. And it will lift the PM's credibility in regard to climate.

Breaking - Malcolm Turnbull ousts Tony Abbott and will become Australia's new Prime Minister

Australia is about to get a new Prime Minister. Malcolm Turnbull has defeated Tony Abbott in a ballot taken by the Liberal Party just now.

This will, I hope, mean a change in Australia's position on climate action. I've been told that Malcolm may have done a "deal" to keep a low profile on climate, but I know he has strong views on the subject. So let's hope that he adopts a leadership stance and doesn't kow tow to the deniers in the party room.

I'll see if I can dig up some of what he's written on the subject. And contrast this with Tony Abbott's stance.

Meantime, while I don't usually blog on politics, this is potentially big news for climate, so I'll make an exception.

You can read more about this news:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-14/liberal-leaderhip-tony-abbott-challenged-by-malcolm-turnbull/6774546

Watch this space!

If you can tolerate talking heads from down under, the ABC NEWS 24 website has removed the geo block for the occasion.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull has said that he supports the current government policy on climate change. Julie Bishop, the (continuing) deputy has said that Australia has already announced the targets for Paris and they won't change.

He also said that his government will be a collaborative, consultative government. So it looks as if it will be up to us to persuade the government to change direction.

Added by Sou at 10:55 pm Monday 14 September 2015

Will Steffen and all of climate science vs Bjorn Lomborg and deniers - no contest! But Tony Abbott picks the loser.

Some Australian readers will have received a copy of this letter from Tim Flannery, which, given it's wide mailout, I think is okay to share more broadly. (Bernard has already posted a copy in the comments).

Deceiving the Australian public

The Australian Government today announced they would contribute $4m for Danish climate contrarian Bjorn Lomborg to establish a new “consensus centre” at the University of Western Australia.

In the face of deep cuts to the CSIRO and other scientific research organisations, it's an insult to Australia’s scientific community.

As the Climate Commission, we were abolished by the Abbott Government in 2013 on the basis that our $1.5 million annual operating costs were too expensive. We relaunched as the Climate Council after thousands of Australians chipped in to the nation’s biggest crowd-funding campaign - ​remember this video?

It seems extraordinary that the Climate Commission, which was composed of Australia’s best climate scientists, economists and energy experts, was abolished on the basis of a lack of funding and yet here we are three years later and the money has become available to import a politically-motivated think tank to work in the same space.

This is why the work of the Climate Council is so important- to counter this continuing ideological attempt at deceiving the Australian public. 

Please consider chipping in a few dollars a week to help us stay independent and continue to fight the rising tide of misinformation. 

Mr Lomborg’s views have no credibility in the scientific community. His message hasn’t varied at all in the last decade and he still believes we shouldn't take any steps to mitigate climate change. When someone is unwilling to adapt their view on the basis of new science or information, it's usually a sign those views are politically motivated. 

But with your support we will continue to fight back and reach millions of Australians with information that is based on the best science available. 

Thank you 

Tim Flannery

P.S We're already busy responding to misinformation in the media. We just called out The Australian for deliberately misinterpreting the science and the Prime Ministers Business Advisor Maurice Newman for getting his facts wrong. 

I've also previously written about Maurice Newman's wrong facts, such as here and here and here. And on several occasions about misleading articles in the Australian.

I've also been told about an article in the Guardian on the topic of Bjorn Lomborg's new creation (h/t Bert).

My reaction is the same as Tim Flannery's. One of the very first things the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott did was to abolish the Climate Commission. Australians were outraged, and within only a few days Australian people donated $500,000 dollars to create the Climate Council. And soon doubled it. It must vie with the biggest responses of any appeal for donations.

Now Tony Abbott is reportedly funding a "denier" (as defined by rationalwiki) at around the same annual cost of the then Climate Commission. (I'll need to check the numbers.)

I don't have time to write any more about this. Feel free to express your opinions in the comments.

Viv Forbes at WUWT takes a shot at Glencore and Tony Abbott

Viv Forbes is lashing out again. This time he's not lashing out at environmentalists so much as Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott and a rival global mining company Glencore. Glencore merged with Xstrata a while back and bought it out in May last year.

Although WUWT doesn't declare the fact, Viv Forbes is a director of another mining company, Stanmore Coal. Both Glencore and Stanmore have operations in Queensland.

That's just by way of background. What Viv Forbes is complaining about is that:

• Australia's car manufacturing industry is no longer - for which Tony Abbott has been blamed, though Viv Forbes doesn't go so far as to mention his name;
• Glencore is sticking with the decision of Xstrata to shut down the copper smelting operations at Mt Isa and its refining operations in Townsville. Viv doesn't approve of Glencore's decision;
• Exploration companies aren't looking for oil in enough places in Australia, or so Viv says.

Viv has somehow linked these three items to the second World War and what he calls "foolish green energy policies and the suicidal war on carbon fuels". He might even be yearning for another war, it's hard to tell. I expect what he's really saying is that governments should bail out car manufacturers and grant huge subsidies to prop up foreign-owned mining operations in Australia.

The links he's made in his article are tenuous at best. But what the heck, anything to have a go at nasty governments (even if they are of your own choosing) and environmental sustainability. Who needs a Tony Abbott or a planet after all, when you've got coal to sell?

You can read his rant here, if you're interested.  (You can also see here and here and here for previous silliness, or type his name in the search bar above)

PM Tony Abbott and his party and independents commit Australia to faster global warming

Late addendum: In Queensland, the ruling Liberal National Party just lost another by-election with a massive 18.5% swing to Labor on a two-party preferred basis. John Quiggin has more. This isn't Federal politics, it's state politics. It doesn't necessarily mean much for the next Federal election. However, this result taken together with the unpopularity of the Federal LNP and particularly the unpopularity of Tony Abbott means he is unlikely to call a double dissolution if he can't get anyone to support his budget or policies.

Sou 12:03 am AEST 21 July 2014

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The Australian Parliament has committed to increasing global warming as quickly as it thinks it can get away with. Today it decided to abandon the carbon price paid by the top polluters, which commenced last year. In reversing the decision on polluter pays, the government and our elected representatives have signalled that they want global warming to get worse more quickly - as quickly as possible without being turfed out of office.

Along with most other thinking Australians, I'm ashamed that Australia is the first country in the world to take a huge backward step on mitigating climate change.

This doesn't mean that all carbon mitigation schemes in Australia have been scrapped. It is, however, a sign that Tony Abbott and his party, and the independents, want to send a signal to us here in Australia and to the rest of the world that it doesn't give a shit about the fact that Australia is one of the highest greenhouse gas emitters per capita. It doesn't give a damn for the future of Australia or the future of the rest of the world.

Australian farmers should be up in arms because they are being hit first and hardest by global warming. But I see no sign of them objecting as a group. Many of them will continue to put their hand out for flood relief and fire relief and drought relief on a more frequent basis as global warming kicks in. Others will walk off their properties. Some will adapt to the changing climate and may not even notice as the suicide rate among those farmers who find it all too hard continues to rise.

The opposition party has now pledged to activate the emissions trading scheme if they get elected next time around. Tony Abbott hasn't ruled out an emissions trading scheme either. But it's fair to say that he'd only do that under duress, if he thought it would be necessary to keep him in power. Tony Abbott is a populist leader. He'll do whatever it takes to stay Prime Minister. Whether it's secretive illegal incarceration of asylum seekers and their children or him causing more and worse droughts, floods and fires across the country.

Tony Abbott is fast becoming the least popular Prime Minister in Australia's history. That doesn't mean he'll get ousted but it does raise the chance of that happening. Surely there is someone in his party who will lead for the nation, not for the lowest quality of uneducated bigot.

Politicians have a short life in office. We won't be stuck with Tony for long. A few years at the most. Maybe he'll only last a few more months. Then we can hopefully catch up to the rest of the world and shift to a new energy economy.

There'll no doubt be lots of articles on this over coming months - by other people. I don't write much on policy but here are some other views:

• Economist John Quiggan has this to say.
• This is from Sophie Vorrath at RenewEconomy
• Ross Garnaut, who helped develop the carbon pricing scheme, says Australia is out of step
• Report from the Sydney Morning Herald, with a reader poll at the bottom.

Note the disclaimer at the bottom. Polls like this aren't representative of voters or the population as a whole. The results are at best only representative of the readers of SMH. Still, a lot of people read SMH. Of those who voted, 67% are "Angry that it (the carbon price on pollution) is gone". Only 19% are "pleased to be rid of it".

Source: SMH

If we cut CO2 emissions today...or Dunning and Kruger visit WUWT again

Update: See below for ABC news item on the horrid but expected decision of this new government to disband Australia's Climate Commission. (The website is still up here.)

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Anthony Watts has a cartoon by Josh as part of an article (archived here) telling his readers about how PM Tony Abbott has shut down the Climate Commission.  The cartoon is this one:

(you wouldn't) Credit: Josh - who suffers a serious case of the Dunning Kruger Effect
Source: Home of the DuKEs - WUWT

The object of the cartoon is Professor Tim Flannery who chaired Australia's Climate Commission.  Tim Flannery is not a meteorologist but he knows more about climate than all the deniers at WUWT and elsewhere put together.

If you read the top and bottom of the quote, you'd see that Josh (and presumably Anthony Watts) don't understand much about CO2 or climate.  As you'll see if you don't already know, Tim Flannery is, of course, correct.

One gets the feeling that Josh and Anthony Watts believe that a mere cut in CO2 would result in a drop in temperature.  That's pretty silly of them.  Any old cut in CO2 won't drop temperature.  As long as more CO2 is being added to the atmosphere than leaves it, then energy in the earth system will increase and temperatures will keep going up.  CO2 is a greenhouse gas and what it does is absorb IR radiation.  The more CO2 there is the less quickly will earth radiate energy to space.  That's why earth is heating up.

What the science says about CO2 and future temperature

I thought it might be worth writing an article about what the science says if the world suddenly stopped emitting any and all CO2 and what would happen if we started to cut emissions.

Abbott Destroys the Joint:- Sexism regains its crown in Australia as Tony Abbott retreats to the 1950s!

It took just over a week for Australia to go back to the 1950s.

Tony Abbott, arch conservative and, to use an outdated expression, a renowned male chauvinist pig, has announced his new leadership team.  Not only does it not include a science portfolio, he has only appointed one woman to senior ranks! One!  That's right - only one out of nineteen Cabinet appointments is a woman.

As if to rub salt in the wound, Tony Abbott is quoted as saying:

Plainly, I am disappointed that there are not at least two women in the cabinet

He is disappointed there are not least TWO women?  TWO - out of NINETEEN!

Only four months ago, Australia was proud to have a woman as Prime Minister. There were only four women (out of 20 members) in Cabinet, but there were in total, ten women out of 30 Ministers plus four out of 12 Parliamentary Secretaries (Members of Parliament).

Today we have one.  ONE! woman in Cabinet plus six overall - out of 42 appointments.  That's an overall drop from 33% of women with portfolio responsibilities down to 14%.

I am lost for words, so here's a picture illustrating Australia's new lot of Federal Cabinet Ministers:

ABC lists Indi for Cathy McGowan - Sophie Mirabella ditched?

Update: 

Congratulations to Cathy McGowan, the new member for Indi.

18 September 2013

An update on the voting for Indi, the seat held by Sophie Mirabella and contested by local independent, Cathy McGowan.  The ABC website has dropped Indi from the "seats in doubt" and is now listing it as one of the "changing seats" going to Cathy McGowan.

It's not over yet and probably won't be until the end of this week at the earliest - possibly not for another fortnight.  However the fact that Sophie has come out and said she's not seeking a Cabinet position even if she wins is already a big plus for Australia and for our electorate.

Current situation: a 9.9% swing against Sophie Mirabella (38,209) for Cathy McGowan at 39,658 after preferences, with 83.1% of the votes counted.

Go Cathy!

Here is the website for Voice for Indi, where the campaign for better representation all started.

Sophie Mirabella campaigned strongly against the carbon pricing scheme and against the then Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.  Here is Sophie (just left of centre) with our incoming Prime Minister, Tony Abbott and incoming Speaker of the House, Bronwyn Bishop (bottom left), standing under two very ugly banners.

That's just in case HotWhopper's international readers doubted the abysmal quality or respectability of the incoming leadership of our once forward-thinking and progressive nation. (With apologies to Cathy McGowan, who has bent over backwards to avoid belittling Sophie Mirabella.)

(Juliar is what opponents called the then PM, Julia Gillard - among other things as you can see. Bob Brown recently retired as leader of the Greens party in Federal Parliament.)

Here is my earlier article on the election and the future of the carbon pricing scheme.  I don't normally write about politics - the climate is apolitical.  However all the signs are pointing to this new government taking actions that will seriously harm any hope that Australia will continue to reduce emissions quickly enough.

Not speaking out isn't an option.

$7 billion Wandoan coal mine scrapped

On the plus side, the world as a whole is moving on, maybe offsetting the incoming government's backward steps. For example, one of the biggest mining projects in the country – the $7 billion Wandoan coal mine in Queensland – has just been scrapped - despite the change of government.

Will Australia do an about face on carbon pricing?

UPDATE: (Tues 10 Sept 6:14 pm AEST) Not looking so good for Cathy McGowan now.  She is less than 300 votes ahead Correction - the website is changed again.  Now Cathy McGowan seems to be 700 or so ahead of Sophie Mirabella and there are still around 7,000 postal votes to count.  Antony Green has called it for Sophie and he's rarely wrong - but fingers crossed for Cathy.


UPDATE: (Mon 9 Sept 13 5:10 pm AEST) Cathy McGowan is now ahead of Sophie Mirabella by nearly 1800 votes.  This will go down to the wire but IMO most preferences and much pre-polling will favour Cathy.

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The Australian federal elections were well and truly won by the Liberal National coalition today.  The coalition is between the Liberal Party, a generally moderate conservative party and the National Party - another conservative party, which is associated with rural Australians.  The National Party operates more as a grassroots democracy than the Liberal Party, which means that on some issues it is more conservative but on other issues it is less conservative than the Liberal Party.  (Neither are as right wing as the current Republican Party in the USA although the coalition has arguably shifted more to the right under the Abbott leadership.)  The Liberal National coalition has been operating for a long time at the federal level, but it can't be taken for granted.  In some states the parties are separate and have not formed a coalition.  Neither party could ever hope to win a federal election in their own right in Australia today.

Anthony Watts is crowing as if he had anything to do with Australia or its elections (archived here).  Why he would care is anyone's guess.  (I notice that I'm moving up in the denier world, rating a mention in Anthony's article - and in the same sentence as John Cook and Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg no less.  I'm humbled to be in such company but recognise that it's just another example of Anthony Watts' dumb ignorance.)

For the benefit of HotWhopper readers from elsewhere, the election results are not a surprise and could have been a lot worse for climate politics.  Our new Prime Minister, Tony Abbott is a lowest common denominator style of politician, taking his lead from the tea party in the USA, with three word slogans being the extent of his policies for the past three years or so.  ("Stop the Boats"; "Great Big Tax"; "No Carbon Tax")

Once the election campaign got underway in earnest he shifted to a slightly more sophisticated approach.  He has sworn to get rid of the carbon "tax" (which isn't really a tax - it's a price on carbon).  To do that he will either have to wait till after the Senate elections appointments commence in July next year or call a double dissolution of Parliament.  That would mean he would have to call another election. (It's been pointed out in the comments that the LNP will probably have the numbers after July next year to remove the carbon tax.  So it may happen.  However nine months is a long time in politics.)

To explain - the Senate is the upper house of Parliament.  Half the Senate is elected every three years and senators have a six year term.  Today we voted for half the Senate and all of the lower house - the House of Representatives.

After today's election, the Liberal National coalition has the majority in the House of Representatives but it does not have a majority in the Senate.  That means that it will not be able to undo the carbon pricing legislation for at least 12 months.  It is arguable that business will not look kindly on them if they mess about too much with it.  Business has accepted it and, as always, prefers certainty to uncertainty.

A couple of other points that will give some (small) consolation to climate hawks.  The first is that Adam Bandt, the Greens member for Melbourne retained his seat with an increase in his primary vote and with the help of preferences from the Liberals.

The second is that in my electorate, Indi, the positively dreadful Sophie Mirabella, who in opposition was ironically the Shadow Minister for Innovation, Industry and Science, is under threat from independent Cathy McGowan.  Sophie is the least innovative person one could imagine.  She is also the most anti-science person one could imagine.  She was in a very safe rural seat until people power got behind Cathy McGowan.  Sophie has lost 8.3% of her 9% margin so far and as each count comes in Cathy sneaks a bigger proportion of the vote.  At the moment Cathy McGowan is around 700  votes short of winning the seat.  It will be a close one.  Sophie Mirabella would be to the right of Genghis Kahn politically and is one of the uglies on our political landscape. If Cathy wins, she'll be the first independent woman in Federal Parliament.  Even if Sophie gets back, our conservative electorate has sent a very strong message to her and to Tony Abbott.

Update: The latest figures show Mirabella has picked up a lot and now looks likely to retain her seat, I'm sorry to say. She is ahead by about 2,600 votes on preferences.  Now Cathy McGowan is ahead.

All up the results are pretty much as expected and could have been worse.

I won't go into all the boring details of Australian political silliness but one thing stands out as being excruciatingly silly.  The new PM Tony Abbott has promised to buy boats from people smugglers.  There are a few million dodgy boats in the world that will be heading for Australia tomorrow!  And a few million more waiting to take their place.

The next few months will be a challenge for Tony Abbott.  He won leadership within his own party from the more moderate Malcolm Turnbull by only one vote.  If Turnbull were to regain leadership (and hence become Prime Minister) in this term of Parliament the carbon price would no longer be under threat.  Turnbull is very aware of the dangers of global warming, as are some others in the Liberal National Party.

I don't know where the balance of power will lie now that there are more Liberal National members elected to the House of Representatives.  It could have shifted to the more conservative but with luck it will have shifted to the more moderate.  Perhaps someone who keeps a closer watch on our political scene than I can comment.