Wednesday, November 20, 2013

It's utter nutter day at the WUWT nuttery, now with the Potty Peer

Sou | 9:59 PM Go to the first of 13 comments. Add a comment

Christopher Monkton prides himself on his utter nuttery.   Anthony Watts loves utter nutters.  He puts up lots of articles by them.  Today we've had:
  • Anthony Watts himself arguing that UHI has affected some temperature readings in the remote regions of the Arctic because of "human warmth" - see here
  • Steve "mad, mad, mad" Goreham writing that "climate change is dominated by natural, not man-made factors" - see here
  • Christopher Monckton writing about his offensive stunt that got him permanently banned from UNFCC processes, faking that he was the "honorary delegate from Burma".

Christopher writes a really, really silly article (archived here and updated) about the recent paper by Cowtan and Way.  He seems to be arguing that the paper doesn't do something that it never claimed to have done in the first place but which, according to the potty peer it should have done.  In other words, the potty peer has built a strawman so he can knock it down.

Nick Stokes demolishes Christopher's nonsense nicely quoting Christopher:
November 20, 2013 at 1:31 am
“The fundamental conceptual error that Cowtan & Way had made lay in their failure to realize that large uncertainties do not reduce the length of The Pause: they actually increase it.”
I’d like to see a quote where C&W are making that conceptual error. In fact, the “length of the Pause” as formulated here is a skeptics construct, and you won ‘t see scientists writng about it.
The period of “no statistically significant increase” is a meaningless statistical test. Rejecting the null hypothesis can lead to useful conclusions; failing to reject does not. It means the test failed.
Yes, HADCRUT takes account of the missing data in its uncertainty estimate, but does not correct for the bias in the trend. That’s what C&W have done.

If you bother to read the archived WUWT article (updated here), you'll notice that Christopher doesn't dispute the findings of Cowtan and Way.  So far I've yet to see anyone dispute it at WUWT, other than Anthony Watts.  And even he seems to be of two minds about it.


I've updated the archive.  Watch out for the "absurd" pontifications of the batty duke (physics teacher rgbatduke who takes a very large number of words to display his profound ignorance of climate), the "genetic" fudgery  of ferd berple and RussR's comment (that I overlooked), in which he pointed out that Christopher argues that AGW continues:
Before long, therefore, another El Niño will arrive, the wind and the thermohaline circulation will carry the warmth around the world, and The Pause – at least for a time – will be over.


  1. One thing Monckton writes about is being an imposter at that UN conference in Doha (although he doesn't say he fraudulently spoke). Monckton says the other delegates hissed and booed. I suspect what they were saying was "Nurse, he's out of bed again."

  2. That is post number 7 about Cowtan and Way. Gives the impression they really liked their weird pause.

    1. Correction post 8 by now. Madness.

    2. Haha, yes, there is some real frustration in denierland

    3. As a grumpy old retired scientist I am amazed at your determined grit Sou to face the constant onslaught and to critique with insight and wit of these at best misinformed people.

      I am new here. I am Bert from Eltham.

    4. According to Sou, Marcott et. al. garnered 28 'thou dost protest too much' posts from WUWT, so Cowtan & Way aren't quite in the big leagues yet.

    5. Since when have we measured success by any sort of assessment from the ignorati? Bert

    6. It's the ignorati we're rating, so success doesn't enter into it. What's revealing is their intimations of failure, which leads to hysteria.

      There's a parallel in the way Monckton uses "bed-wetter" as an insult, which reveals, I think, some deep trauma from his Harrow schooldays. Insecurity is at the root of it.

    7. McIntyre is also doing some great work rebutting Cowtan and Way on Climate Audit by posting quotes from the hacked SkS forum! :-D

      Oh, and he saw that the analysis must be wrong because of something happening in 2005. Could it be that pesky acceleration in the rate of Arctic sea ice loss? I'm sure we'll hear all about it. Soon. Real soon. Mañana.

    8. The pause was the basis of their argument that's why they're all getting their knickers in a knot. I for one was sick of hearing "warming has stopped" or "the models don't match the observations" or "the models failed to predict the pause". Thank heavens for Cowtan and Way is all I can say.

  3. Replies
    1. That person has "Writing Fiction and Poetry" as an interest, so it may well be. If not, my apologies to said person. Sou will know; Sou sees all and knows all :)


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