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Monday, November 7, 2016

Troposphere temperatures for October 2016 - another hottest on record

Sou | 12:23 AM Go to the first of 11 comments. Add a comment
The troposphere temperatures for October 2016 have been released. The lower troposphere is recorded in UAH v6 beta 5 and RSS TLT v3.3. This report also covers RSS TTT for the troposphere (without the "lower") and follows pretty much the same format as previous monthly updates.

For RSS TTT (troposphere), last month was the hottest October on record. For 2016 to be colder than the previous hottest year (1998), the troposphere would have to average a negative anomaly:- less than -0.41 °C for the remaining months.

The lower troposphere (UAH beta v6.05) was the equal hottest October on record with 2015. For 1998 to remain the hottest year in the UAH lower troposphere record, the average for the next two months would need to be below 0.21 °C.

Troposphere temperature (RSS TTT v4) chart


First here is RSS TTT with the latest dataset, version 4. TTT seems to be measure more of the troposphere than TLT (that is, it has a greater vertical profile) with less of the stratosphere than the mid-troposphere data (TMT). It shows a higher rate of warming than RSS v3.3 and higher than UAH. Hover the cursor (arrow) over the plots to see the data points, trend etc.

The chart below is the average of the 12 months to October, from November 1979 to October 1980, through to November 2015 to October 2016. The 12 month averaged anomaly was 0.78 °C, which is 0.16 °C higher than the previous hottest 12 month period in 1998. The rate of warming is 0.18 °C/decade.
Figure 1 | Troposphere temperature for 12 months to October (TTT). Anomaly is from the 1979-1998 mean. Data source: RSS

From the RSS website, TTT is derived from TMT and TLS with the formula:

TTT = 1.1*TMT - 0.1*TLS. 

This combination reduces the influence of the lower stratosphere, which is cooling at most locations. TLT gives most weight to the temperatures closer to the surface. TTT gives more weight to the troposhere and less to the stratosphere than TMT does, but not as much to the lowest levels of the troposphere as TLT does. However TTT has version 4, while TLT is still only provided as version 3.3. For a fuller explanation see the RSS website or the July 16 report here.

Below is the TTT chart just for the month of October. The anomaly for October was 0.763 °C, which is 0.04 °C warmer than October 2015. The rate of warming just for Octobers is 0.21 °C/decade.
Figure 3 | Troposphere temperature for the month of October only (TTT). Anomaly is from the 1979-1998 mean. Data source: RSS


Lower troposphere


The rest of the charts are from UAH beta v6.5. This is almost identical to the old version of RSS, which is v3.3, so is likely to be updated at some time. (Other RSS data sets, like TTT are now at version 4.)

The chart below is the average of the 12 months to October, from November 1979 to October 1980, through to November 2015 to October 2016. The past 12 months is the hottest on record by 0.03 C.
Figure 4 | Lower troposphere temperature for 12 months to October. Anomaly is from the 1981-2010 mean. Data source: UAH

Below is the UAH chart for the month of October only for each year going back to 1979. The anomaly was 0.41 °C above the 1981-2010 mean, which was the same as October last year.

Figure 5 | Lower troposphere temperature for the month of October only. Anomaly is from the 1981-2010 mean. Data source: UAH


Comparing recent ENSO years


Below is a chart comparing the strongest El Niño years since 1979, which were followed by a La Niña, just for UAH v6beta. I've included the 2015/16 period for comparison.

Figure 7 | Global mean surface temperature for strong or moderate/strong El Nino years that were followed by a La Nina. Data source: UAH

La Nina is not very likely to appear this year according to BoM. One thing you'll notice is that the last couple of months in the UAH data are similar to 1998. I think the result would be different if satellite drift were better accounted for - going by comparison with RSS data.





From the WUWT comments


The comments below are from the WUWT copy and paste of Roy Spencer's latest article about the UAH lower troposphere record (archived here, latest here).

ChadB wonders when the temperatures are going to stop increasing, and asked:
November 1, 2016 at 9:33 am
Curious, what would the trend need to look like in 2017 for “the Pause” to return?

There were a few responses. Nick Stokes was the only person who helped, though, and wrote:
November 1, 2016 at 8:32 pm
Curious, what would the trend need to look like in 2017 for “the Pause” to return?
There is simple arithmetic you can do. UAH did show a near zero trend from about May 1997 to Feb 2016, and the intercept was about 0.25°C. As long as the mean since Feb 2016 is greater than 0.25, the trend since 1997 will be positive, else not. This is an approx good for a year or two at least. The average since Feb is now way higher, and continued monthly values of around 0.4 are adding to the task. The trend won’t stop rising until months are below 0.25 °C, and no pause until a sequence of months have been below 0.25 by as much cumulatively as 2016 has been above. That’s very unlikely.

Kristian wanted to know why it was unlikely:
November 2, 2016 at 11:04 am
Why is that “very unlikely”?

Nick Stokes explained the arithmetic:
November 2, 2016 at 2:17 pm
Why unlikely? I looked up details. From Jul 1997 to Jan 2016, there was zero trend, and the average was 0.14C (I had V5.6 above). From Feb to Sep, the average was 0.55. For pause return, the average since Feb 2016 has to be 0.14. So what would it take? Either:
  1. Eight months averaging -0.26C. But such months individually are very rare in the record.
  2. 24 months averaging 0C. That did happen once, around 2008. But it didn’t start from temps of 0.4C.
And yet, UAH seems to be running along at about 0.4. Each extra month which is 0.26 above the .14 level requires another balancing month 0.26 below, or -0.12C. 

Kiwibok thinks that temperatures rise by magic and will keep rising for ever more. I don't know if she or he is planning a move to the poles any time soon. Kiwibok is also wrong about "new highs every month for 400 years".
November 1, 2016 at 12:31 pm
Don’t forget everyone that as temps have been rising since the LIA that any year that does NOT make a new record should make news .
A new high does not mean it’s anything to do with humans – there have been new highs every few moths for 400 years .
It’s only in “Hoaxworld ” a “record ” temp is big news .




11 comments:

  1. I was hoping that Kiwibok would explain the mechanism for his 'natural warming' since the little ice age. Daly no. But how come the inmates didn't chide him that there is no warming, just a bazillion scientists faking temperature data?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The warming mechanism is called bouncing. Lots of people don't know about it, but if you want to make a fire get hotter, you bounce the logs. But don't bounce them too hard because you might burn down the house. See, at the depths of the LIA they were bouncing a lot of logs...

      Delete
    2. Brilliant: they bounced the logs, causing the Great Fire of London. The evidence is there if only you look for it!

      Delete
  2. erm Sadly for Daly.

    ReplyDelete
  3. lol, more plaintive cries from the whut jobs "when is it going to stop warming, when is the pause returning daddy"

    Anyway the LIA recovery meme often comes up these days, and sounds a teeny weeny bit sciency "LIA recovery"

    Until you realise they think the planet has some sort of default temperature - to which temps are automatically recovering to

    It is a neat mental trick in that allows the dismissal of any physical forces being required

    ReplyDelete
  4. off topic, buthave you seen this Sou? https://checkvist.com/checklists/583700

    It's insane. Malcolm Roberts is a dangerous idiot

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had a quick read Nathan and it is about as scientific as random noise is signal.

      It looks like what a child would produce with random pictures and text cut out of a pile of publications that the child thinks are relevant and just pasting them in as some sort of logical story.

      Malcolm Roberts can only be described as delusional at best. He does not have the tools to understand what he claims to know about.

      This graph describes him and I doubt whether he could even interpret it rationally.

      http://d1355990.i49.quadrahosting.com.au/2016_07/DK.jpg

      Bert

      Delete
    2. I tweeted to him that he was mad... No reply though...

      Delete
    3. He commonly blocks people who don't subscribe to his conspiracy theories. (He hasn't got around to blocking me yet.)

      https://twitter.com/rhysam/status/795476300940988416

      Delete
    4. This is better:

      https://twitter.com/search?q=roberts%20blocked&src=typd

      Delete
  5. “I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...

    The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance”


    ― Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, 1995

    ReplyDelete

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