They say a picture tells a thousand words. Is this the ultimate cherry pick?
|19 years of pause and 17 years of rapid warming.|
Data source: Wood for Trees Charts: WUWT and HotWhopper
Anthony Watts wrote about a paper by Ross McKitrick (whose name Anthony mis-spelled). It was published in some obscure statistics journal (with zero impact factor), in which Ross set out to "prove" that global warming "paused" 19 years ago. To illustrate, Anthony put up the above chart.
No, not both of them. Guess which one was Anthony's :) And I can cherry-pick too, can't I?
He said that Ross McKitrick didn't help him. Anthony Watts was able to come up with that chart all by himself. It's ironic that the abstract that Anthony posted included this sentence about cherry-picking endpoints:
Here, I propose a method for estimating the duration of the hiatus that is robust to unknown forms of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) in the temperature series and to cherry-picking of endpoints.
If you need it, here's a link explaining heteroskedasticity and Tamino discussing autocorrelation, plus more here.
Here's another chart, this time of GISTemp looking at global surface temperatures over the past few decades.
|Data source: NASA GISTemp|
I wonder if Tamino will bother to take on Ross McKitrick's latest effort?
From the WUWT comments
This first one is priceless. I'm guessing that it's a dig at Anthony's effort, but you can never tell. Lucius von Steinkaninchen wrote:
September 1, 2014 at 10:26 am
Perhaps eventually we will reach the conclusion that “the pause” extends to the 70s and “global warming” never existed to begin with.
The stats is beyond me, however it mightn't be beyond Greg who says:
September 1, 2014 at 11:23 am
So he uses a method that requires that the data be trend stationary to show that the trend is not statationary but is lower during the 19y ‘pause’.
Seems to have lost something in translation. :?
Tony Brown prefers the word "plateau". climatereason wrote:
September 1, 2014 at 11:56 am
Its an ‘averaged’ pause as clearly the temperatures have moved both ways during the period so ‘pause’ is perhaps not a worthwhile matrix. . Eyeballing it I would say the first 10 years of the 19 year graph is rather variable whilst the second 9 year period is much more constant and would surely merit the term ‘plateau’