"You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell!"— Nick Mamatas (@NMamatas) June 24, 2016
Photo by @jeremiahtolbert. pic.twitter.com/20KuMJdKod
Is this the end of the United Kingdom or did that happen some time ago? Will Scotland have another vote to separate, and to stay with the EU? What about Northern Ireland? Will it revert to civil strife? And will other EU countries follow suit, leading to a collapse of the union?
Post your thoughts here - and even better, speculate what Europe (including England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland) and the world will look like in 2030.
HotWhopper rarely dips into politics, but this vote by the people of Britain to leave the EU could signal some massive changes. It will almost certainly upset the world of finance. The Pound has dropped to its lowest level since 1985. Stock prices have dropped quite a lot all around the world. This could be a kneejerk reaction from the markets, or the start of a bear.
One things seems certain, unwinding from the EU won't be easy or painless. England could sink into a long depression. The Bank of England is trying to talk things up, but will the world listen?
What's the bet that when reality sets in, the people who voted to leave will still blame the EU for their woes?
Update - I've added some links below the fold.
Further reading
Some HotWhopper readers might not be all that familiar with the EU, except perhaps for its massive multi-national research programs. The implications are potentially far-reaching, with the biggest concerns being international stability in terms of security and economics. That's for people outside of the UK. Within the UK it's unlikely that the hopes of those who voted to leave will be realised in the short to medium term, and some things they didn't think about might concern them.
The biggest concern is probably that the xenophobia behind Brexit reminds some people of early 20th century Germany. Racism and xenophobia and wanting to keep out the world is not just happening in the UK, but with Trump in the USA, and with some conservative politicians in Australia, too.
Anyway, here are a few links to get you started:
The Law, Constitution and Brexit
- Brexit | Legally and constitutionally, what now? - article by Mark Elliott, who is Professor of Public Law at the University of Cambridge, a Fellow of St Catharine's College, Cambridge, and Legal Adviser to the House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution.
EU background and history - plus security implications
- The History of the European Union (and why it was formed) - from the European Union
- Brexit in 2016 and 1975: Two historical EU referendums speak of two different ideas of Britain - firstpost.com
- Brexit: why Britain left the EU, explained with a simple cartoon - from Vox
- The security consequences of Brexit - New York Times Editorial Board
- Brexit: Australia will be hit as world will become more fragmented, less safe, say experts - Sydney Morning Herald
- Brexit Casts Dark Shadow on World’s Great Move to Openness - Bloomberg
- Brexit is terrifying — and no, not because of the economics - Vox
Financial and economic implications
- Five Charts to Watch in the Aftermath of the Brexit Vote - Bloomberg
- Cornwall votes for Brexit then pleads to keep EU funding - The Independent
- Love it or leave it: why the UK’s Brexit vote should matter to Americans - Terrence Guay at The Conversation (written before the Brexit vote)
- How bad will Brexit get? Here's what top economists are saying. - Vox
- Turbulence and Uncertainty for the Market after 'Brexit' - New York Times
Other reading
- The seven stages of Brexit grief, explained - Indy100
- The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it - Washington Post
- How old people have screwed over the younger generation - in three charts - Indy100
- The state of the UK's thought process last night, according to our Google searches - Indy100
- The 10 best places to emigrate to after Brexit - Indy100
- Lots more from Indy100
There is a pattern there, and it is clearly not a pattern of old Britons vs young Britons. There is absolutely nothing of this in this pattern. It a broader pattern across many countries.
ReplyDeleteNevertheless, the generational gap is great of course. As a side point, process of the scapegoat is something very precise. It is used and abused actually, but scapegoating is not breaking the plate and crying: “not me, it's bro!”. This is only a lie with the hope to go trough unchallenged. Scapegoat is a narrative build by a social community to expel the violence. And it is really a far more complex process than just not putting his ball on the table and trying instead to put a lie.
It will not be entirely to the point, but nevertheless to finish I must said UK is not looking ready to go through this referendum. Even though it is instrumentalized, divide is great in UK between old and young and it is real. But there is less and less old white rich people, and more and more old, nostalgic people, trying to make ends meet. Young people accusing old people of stealing their generation is a very badly informed statement. Daily life is harsh for about every one, and campaigns of Wales and England voted against EU because old people here are also struggling.
And it was common to compare life expectancy with the pro Eu vote, but this is totally crazy and it no better than the worst arguments brought by the leave camp. Some even said younger people should have a double count, which is pure madness.
There is many process of scapegoating trying to take place currently, and rejecting the fault on old people is probably one of them, as it is the tentative to reject the fault on strangers. And, to finish, it is not a political comment, only obviousness here. If UK wants to avoid the crash and explosion, building scapegoat will do absolutely no help, no matter it is about old or stranger.
Professor Michael Dougan of Liverpool University explained before the vote, to the chagrin of many, how the Leave campaign had been founded on 'Industrial Scale Dishonesty'. That video is still available but Dougan has since responded to his critics, some vitriolic, in a post vote presentation:
ReplyDeleteSuffer an article from The Independent, I could have dropped in a Facebook link to Liverpool University's page more easily, sorry for the adds:
Brexit campaign was 'criminally irresponsible', says legal academic
Now you can see it for yourself - the Brexit Plan!
ReplyDeleteThank you bill, most informative.
Delete:)
I'm going to have to go back and transcribe those Scots tweets. Wonderful!
ReplyDeleteNice one Bill, hence the rats leaving the sinking ship.
ReplyDeleteThe influence of The Goves through the media should not be overlooked.
A candid assessment of the runners and riders
Deletehttp://news.sky.com/story/1721982/watch-ken-clarke-ridicules-tory-candidates
More like donkeys led by donkeys. The UK public have got the politicians they deserve.
ReplyDeleteOur latest thing: we now are using astroturf in our gardens because mowing a lawn is too much effort for Mr & Mrs Couch Potato.
Mmmm, apparently overweight donkeys too
ReplyDeletehttps://ormosi.wordpress.com/2016/06/29/the-weight-of-brexit-obese-adults-lead-the-way-out-of-europe/