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Sunday, September 11, 2016

Troposphere temperatures for August 2016

Sou | 1:03 PM Go to the first of 10 comments. Add a comment

The troposphere temperatures for August 2016 have been released. The lower troposphere is recorded in UAH v6 beta 5 and RSS TLT v3.3. This report also covers RSS TTT for the troposphere (without the "lower") and follows pretty much the same format as previous monthly updates.

In all records, the August global anomaly was higher than it was in July but lower than earlier this year as El Niño is now over.

For RSS TTT (troposphere), last month was the hottest August on record. For 2016 to be colder than the previous hottest year (1998), the troposphere would have to average less than 0.19 °C for the remaining months.

In the lower troposphere (UAH beta v6.05) last month is the second hottest August on record, lower than it was in 1998. For 1998 to remain the hottest year in the UAH lower troposphere record, the average for the next four months would need to be below 0.32 °C.

Troposphere temperature (RSS TTT v4) chart


First here is RSS TTT with the latest dataset, version 4. TTT seems to be measure more of the troposphere than TLT (that is, it has a greater vertical profile) with less of the stratosphere than the mid-troposphere data (TMT). It shows a higher rate of warming than RSS v3.3 and higher than UAH. Hover the cursor (arrow) over the plots to see the data points, trend etc.

The chart below is the average of the 12 months to August, from September 1979 to August 1980, through to September 2015 to August 2016.
Figure 1 | Troposphere temperature for 12 months to August (TTT). Anomaly is from the 1979-1998 mean. Data source: RSS

From the RSS website, TTT is derived from TMT and TLS with the formula:

TTT = 1.1*TMT - 0.1*TLS. 

This combination reduces the influence of the lower stratosphere, which is cooling at most locations. TLT gives most weight to the temperatures closer to the surface. TTT gives more weight to the troposhere and less to the stratosphere than TMT does, but not as much to the lowest levels of the troposphere as TLT does. However TTT has version 4, while TLT is still only provided as version 3.3. For a fuller explanation see the RSS website or the July 16 report here.

Below is the TTT chart just for the month of August. The anomaly for August was 0.73 °C, which is 0.09 °C warmer than August 2010.
Figure 3 | Troposphere temperature for the month of August only (TTT). Anomaly is from the 1979-1998 mean. Data source: RSS


Lower troposphere


The rest of the charts are from UAH beta v6.5. This is almost identical to the old version of RSS, which is v3.3, so is likely to be updated at some time. (Other RSS data sets, like TTT are now at version 4.)

The chart below is the average of the 12 months to August, from September 1979 to August 1980, through to September 2015 to August 2016. The past 12 months is the hottest on record by 0.08 C.

Figure 4 | Lower troposphere temperature for 12 months to August. Anomaly is from the 1981-2010 mean. Data source: UAH

Below is the UAH chart for the month of August only for each year going back to 1979. The anomaly was 0.44 °C above the 1981-2010 mean, which was 0.08 °C lower than the previously hottest August in 1998 (0.52 °C).

Figure 5 | Lower troposphere temperature for the month of August only. Anomaly is from the 1981-2010 mean. Data source: UAH



Comparing recent ENSO years


Below is a chart comparing the strongest El Niño years since 1979, which were followed by a La Niña, just for UAH v6beta. I've included the 2015/16 period for comparison.

Figure 6 | Global mean surface temperature for strong or moderate/strong El Nino years that were followed by a La Nina. Data source: UAH

It looks as if there won't be a La Nina this year according to NOAA, and the above chart supports that.





From the WUWT comments


The comments below are from the WUWT copy and paste of Roy Spencer's latest article about the UAH lower troposphere record (archived here). His sub-headlines have been getting less excited over time:

  • August: "August 2016 and 2016-to-date are second warmest"
  • July:: "July Temperature Recovers Slightly from Previous Free-Fall",
  • June:: "Spectacular Drop In Global Average Satellite Temperatures".
Deniers didn't like the report much. The real nutters came out of the woodwork crying fraud and fakery and it's cooling and it's not warming. And I do mean loopy loop nutters, not the ordinary conspiracy theorists you see every day at WUWT. They stopped short of accusing Roy Spencer and John Christy of fraud and fakery. What they did argue was, after months of saying that it proved a pause, or proved cooling or whatever, suddenly the satellite record is much too short to say anything at all. They were most upset.

The "thoughts" were dominated by Gabro going head to head with Leif Svalgaard. Gabro is very concerned about climate change, so much so that he or she dreams up every trick they can find to deny it's happening. (Gabro made something like 20 comments all up.)

Gabro says the satellite record is too short and the surface record is a fraud:
September 1, 2016 at 6:41 pm
The satellite record is barely long enough to count as climate.
If climate be the average of weather over 30 years, then we have only had time for one such interval (1979-2008) and are working on a second (2009 & counting) for comparison’s sake.
Totally insufficient for establishing statistical significance.
The so-called “surface record” since 1850 is a cooked book, corrupt artifact of science fiction, but even so shows that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.
Gabro can't decide if it's about to get warmer or cooler:
September 1, 2016 at 6:50 pm
FWIW, historical patterns suggest that the interval 2009-2038 should be cooler than 1979-2008, but perhaps not quite as chilly as 1949-1978. This prediction isn’t because human activity will make the current and coming 30 years warmer than the postwar world, but because earth is still recovering naturally from the LIA, and is in another centennial-scale warming period, as during the Middle Ages and Roman warmths.
Gabro says it's definitely cooling (the months since June are quite long enough to tell). No. That's not it. The trend is flat. On the other hand, if it is warming then the trend isn't long enough to say so.
September 2, 2016 at 10:56 am
..No, I’m not afraid to say that there is cooling in the UAH record. There is both warming and cooling, and the trend is for all practical purposes flat. There is, for instance, pronounced cooling from the start of this year, same as after prior super El Ninos.
But even if it’s up slightly, the trend isn’t long enough to count as climate intervals for comparative purposes. If climate is the average of WX over 30 years, we need at least two such intervals to make a comparison, which still wouldn’t be meaningful.

Gabro probably doesn't know that Steve McIntyre "believes in" global warming.
September 1, 2016 at 6:53 pm
My hope is that President Trump will put Steve McIntyre in charge of fixing the fudges perpetrated by the unindicted co-conspirators of NASA, NOAA and HadCRU. 

Bill Taylor needs a reality check:
September 1, 2016 at 4:42 pm
wow, measuring against the 30 year average and then using the anomaly from that average to claim warmest or second warmest on record is NOT the information that data would give……..that info only applies to the last 30 years……the 1930’s remain as much warmer than present, no matter how often the dishonest folks massage the real observed data.



Anthony Watts is still promising his ancient 2012 paper will appear one of these days - or never.




10 comments :

  1. Replies
    1. I believe the OAS (the promised terror of the scientific establishment) has passed an anniversary very quietly.

      Delete
  2. The Denialati can't seem to let go of their canard that it's not warming.

    OK, let's put the boot on the other foot. Can any Denialatus from WUWT, or from any other bastion of anti-scientific ideology, explain what the global temperature over the last 40-50 years would look like if there was warming of the magnitude that science describes? Nothing fancy, just the rate over time, and the variation around signal. What exactly would an 'acceptable' (in their eyes...) trajectory look like?

    Can any any of them describe this? And if they are brave enough to do so, can they describe how it would differ statistically from the actual empirical record to date?

    Roy? Steve? Willard Anthony? Christopher? Joanne? Anyone?!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Off topic, but can we adapt as fast as bacteria? Here

    https://vimeo.com/180908160

    Bert

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great video Bert. I wonder what the timing was? Not sure if it wasn't there or if I missed it.

      Couple of things - there aren't nearly as many of us humans as there are bacteria; we don't breed nearly as quickly; we live quite a bit longer (at least I'd guess that); and while adaptable, we're not nearly as adaptable as bacteria.

      All up, I'm rather glad I'm human and not a bacterium :)

      Delete
    2. The time lapse was over about fourteen days Sou. The movie was graphic in that it shows how the misuse of antibiotics can very quickly lead to antibiotic resistant bacteria.

      We are facing a near future where all our antibiotics will be useless. It is endemic for some strains of bacteria in hospitals now.

      It also shows that evolution due to random mutations is very real.

      As for adaptation or evolution, at the rate bacteria can manage we are not even in the race. This is why multicellular organisms invented sex. The mixing and re assortment of the genes gives some time to fend off lethal parasitic bacteria and viruses.

      Notice how 'adaptation' leaves many behind and very dead. Bert

      This is allegorical to our 'adaptation' to Global Warming.




      Delete
    3. Thanks Bert. We're pretty good at adapting but there are physiological limits to where we can survive and thrive. That is, some places will be too hot, too cold, too wet, or too dry for us. We'll need all our ingenuity to continue to produce the crops for food as climate change kicks in, too. That will require quite a bit of change and probably quite a lot of assistance to food producers along the way.

      Delete
    4. Although it's simplistic to assume that there wouldn't be trade-offs among the many mutations involved, it's more than a little frightening to think that at least in theory one could deliberately evolve virulent strains of bacteria highly resistant to a wide spectrum of antibiotics using a simple basement lab setup.

      I suppose it's more frightening that we're already doing it inadvertently in the wild, in animal feedlots and our hospitals.

      Delete
  4. Ohhh a countdown..

    ReplyDelete
  5. Not much talk these days from the denialosaurs of the 'decadal climate bet' re satelite lower troposphere temperatures. This may be why: http://www.kiwithinker.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Climate-Bet-Aug-2016.jpg

    Didn't AW say he would be posting regular updates on this one? Don't recall any recent ones ;)

    ReplyDelete

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