Fooling the Bottom 8%? Oh, It's Just Another Nutter

It is interesting to see the lengths Denial Merchants will go to try to fool people.  Take Anthony Watts for example.  He used to have a battle between what he knows to be the case with climate change and what he 'wishes' to be the case, and most of the time let what he 'wished' determine what he presented and how he presented it.

Lately Watts seems to have swung into full-on Disinformation Mode.

This coincides with the rise in extreme weather events and the continued stream of new information coming from climate scientists, providing ever more convincing evidence that we are on a path to dangerous global warming.

Spot the Differences

Today Watts puts up a deliberately distorted drawing by arch-denier Christopher Booker to try to fool his readers into thinking that global warming is not happening.  (This is contrary to what Watts himself thinks, which makes it doubly heinous.)

What Watts neglected to point out was that 13 of the hottest 15 years on record occurred since 1997, and all of the 15 hottest years on record were in the period 1995 to 2012 (based on these data from NASA).

Looking at the scale of Booker's drawing, imagine if the global average temperature suddenly dropped 3 degrees to less than 12 degrees Celsius (rapid glaciation), or 6 degrees Celsius (major glaciation), or zero degrees Celsius (without other forcing, this could plummet further into a snowball earth as the ice and snow radiated most incident sunlight back to space).

Booker and Anthony could have picked any start date from the beginning of the Holocene and the above drawing would have looked almost exactly the same.

Anthony contrasts the above with a chart from Climate Progress, on which I've put a red rectangle:

Let's look at the two drawings.  The astute reader will notice:

• They are of vastly different periods of time.  The top one spans a mere fifteen years, the bottom one spans more than 11,000 years.
• They are using different temperature scales.  The top one is in degrees Celsius, the bottom one is in degrees Fahrenheit.
• They are using a different baseline.  The top one has a baseline of zero degrees Celsius.  The bottom drawing is based on an anomaly from the 1961-1990 mean.

If one converted the temperature scale of the bottom one to degrees Celsius, adjusted the baselines to match and superimposed what is in the red rectangle onto the top drawing, it would be almost indistinguishable from what is there already.  In other words, the current global temperature is now about the same as the maximum during the entire Holocene (the  area covered by the red rectangle).

When it comes to statistics I'm not a match for Tamino. (Who is?).  However like anyone, I can prepare a rough comparison.  Here is the Marcott et al Holocene reconstruction on a similar scale to the Booker drawing, with the zero line being the 1961-1990 mean.  (Source data here.) This period spans more than 11,000 years and includes the Holocene Optimum as well as the Little Ice Age.

(If after looking at this, you are not concerned by the virtually certain prospect of a very rapid rise in the global surface temperature of two degrees Celsius or more, spiking way above the top of the chart, then you will probably never be concerned about it and we can consider you part of the bottom 8% "Dismissive" and ignore you from here on in.)

Disinformation Merchant

Watts goes to great lengths to distort the facts.  If anyone ever doubted it, this demonstrates that Anthony Watts is not merely an on-seller of the Merchants of Doubt, he is a full-blown disinformation merchant.

Target Audience of the Disinformation Merchants

The target audience of the disinformation merchants is not the bottom 8% of the population (The Dismissives - see next section below).  They are already in the 'complete nut-jobs' category and don't need any help to stay there.  It is the 'Doubtful' and maybe the 'Disengaged' (although the 'Disengaged' have other more immediate problems on their mind, like managing despite their dire poverty and low education).  The disinformation merchants also hope to snag a few of the 'Cautious'.

Here is a comment from one of the 8% cranks (The Dismissives):

Pamela is referring to the ClimateProgress chart.  She accepts the distortion from Booker and Watts, but mocks a chart derived from peer-reviewed literature (ie Marcott et al).

A look at opinions prevailing in the USA

According to recent research from the Yale Project on Climate Communication, only 8% of people from the USA dismiss climate science out of hand (The Dismissives).  Here is a breakdown of the 'Six Americas' (click image for larger version):

The Yale Group "Six Americas" report collates the six groups as follows:

the Alarmed, Concerned and Cautious – currently comprise 70 percent of the American public. Although they range in certainty about the reality and dangers of climate change, they are similarly inclined to believe it is a real threat that should be addressed. Thus, some level of support for action is the predominant view among the majority of Americans.

The Doubtful (13%) – the fourth largest group – are uncertain whether global warming is occurring or not, but believe that if it is happening, it is attributable to natural causes, not human activities. They tend to be politically conservative and to hold traditional religious views.

The Disengaged (9%) have given the issue of global warming little to no thought. They have no strongly held beliefs about global warming, know little about it, and do not view it as having any personal relevance. They tend to have the lowest education and income levels of the six groups.

The smallest audience segment is the Dismissive (8%), who are very certain that global warming is not occurring. Many regard the issue as a hoax and are strongly opposed to action to reduce the threat. About one in nine have contacted an elected representative to argue against action on global warming.

Here is the breakdown as above:

Conspiracy Theorists: The Dismissive comprise only 8% of Americans.  Given that "many regard the issue as a hoax", this group has a tendency to believe whacky conspiracy theories as described by Lewandowsky et al in the paper "NASA faked the moon landing therefore (climate) science is a hoax - An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science."

Right Wing Authoritarians: Together with The Doubtful, this small group of Dismissives exhibit at least some characteristics in common with Bob Altemeyer's Right Wing Authoritarians.

1. Illogical thinking
2. Highly compartmentalised minds
3. Double standards
4. Hypocrisy
5. Blindness to themselves
6. A profound ethnocentrism
7. Dogmatism: The Authoritarians last ditch defense.

Dismissives (8%) are "sure" global warming is not happening despite all the evidence that it is happening.  Doubtfuls (13%) think it might be happening but think "it's natural", again despite all the evidence to the contrary.  This demonstrates illogical thinking as well as dogmatism (no amount of evidence will persuade them otherwise).

The Dismissives (8%) are the least informed of the lot and prone to conspiracy ideation (global warming is a hoax).  Only 10% of this 8% acknowledge the fact that "most scientists think global warming is happening".  In fact 17% of the 8% even say they think "most scientists think global warming is not happening".   This group has "highly compartmentalised minds" and "profound ethnocentrism" - only mixing with those who share their distorted view of the world.

Watts is cementing his position as "Just Another Nutter"!

Will Watts' shift to pandering to the bottom 8% (The Dismissives) alienate him further from the mainstream? I believe it will as it should.

HotWhoppers, Monckton and His Scaredy Cat Prey

Today an email was circulated inviting the recipient, as a "concerned and productive citizen of Western Australia", to attend one (or more) sessions with Lord Monckton.  

The Professional Clown Down Under

If you haven't heard of Monckton before, he is probably the only Viscount from England who earns his living as a professional clown (with apologies to honest clowns).  He appears in front of audiences in Australia and the USA promoting disinformation about climate and threatening to sue any scientist who crosses his path, particularly but not necessarily if they are a climate scientist.  

Most people regard Monckton as a rather unsavoury idiot or worse.  However, to a small (and shrinking) minority, he has been raised to God-like status.  

I present the email here so you can see for yourself the type of person Monckton and his promoters deliberately, and quite possibly with malice, prey upon and what that says about the 'leaders' of this anti-science movement.

Monckton targets people who are naturally inclined to be scared shitless about nearly everything in the world, under-educated, extremely gullible, willing to believe anything even completely contradictory ideas as long as it fits their world view, prone to conspiracy theories, believing 'they' are out to get them, and looking for a new 'saviour'.

Scared shitless

The first sentence in the body of the email is:

The end is NOT nigh.

From this attempt at reassurance and comfort, we can deduce that Monckton's prey is by nature very scared (about almost everything in the world outside its own tiny habitat).   It fears the "end", the object of which the writer leaves to the imagination of the reader.  It could be the end of the world, its own death (with or without the end of the world) or the end of a way of life.

Whatever the "end" refers to, it is undoubtedly ominous.

Gullible and lacking education

The next sentence indicates Monckton's prey is extremely gullible.  It will accept any statement, no matter how big the lie, as long as it comforts them and fits with what they want to believe.

It’s official; according to the Head of the UN Climate Change Panel (UN IPCC) there has been NO GLOBAL WARMING for 17 YEARS.

Conspiracy theorists

Monckton's prey is also susceptible to trigger words evoking evil conspiracies. "UN" and "IPCC" feature prominently in the paranoid conspiracy that climate scientists and governments all around the world have been secretly engaged in a gigantic hoax with the aim of taking over the world.

Scared, gullible, under-educated conspiracy theorists

The next two sentences (plus the overall email) show Monckton's prey is of limited intelligence and low education.  There is a lot of repetition, large typeface, capitalization, bolding and exclamation points.

When people hear this wonderful news there will be dancing in the streets.

The climate models were wrong and THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO END!

According to official UN IPCC global temperature datasets, the length of time WITHOUT ANY MEASURABLE WARMING has been 16 Years, 18 Years, 19 Years or in the case of the most accurate satellite dataset, 23 Years (depending which official UN IPCC dataset is used).

The imagery of 'dancing in the streets' to the tune of a potty peer would seem way over the top to all but a very few.  The following sentence, presented in bold font and using capital letters, is to make sure that, despite the reader's limited cognitive ability, the prey gets the message that they are not about to die/see the world end/lose their way of life tomorrow.  It aims once again to comfort them.

The third sentence suggests that the writer accepts that the dreaded "UN/IPCC" is accurate about global warming and that his prey is gullible enough to accept the lies about 'measurable warming'.

Here is a chart of global surface temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology, with arrows marking the surface temperature between 16 and 23 years ago.  Which cherry picked date will Monckton end up settling upon to decide his 'measurable warming'? (Click image to enlarge.)

Monckton's mob can have a free lesson from Tamino on how to cherry pick dates to show the trend you want.  Then they might be able to pick a date and stick to it.  The easiest one is "it's been cooling since 2010!" which was the most recent 'hottest year on record' according to NASA, as illustrated here - with arrows pointing to when Monckton apparently thinks it stopped warming.

Then more paranoid conspiracy ideation - the government is hiding the real facts, "economic shackles", "loss of property and other rights", "Climate Scam" and "UN Agenda 21 program", more "economic costs" and "loss of rights".

Fear not, I am your Saviour

Lord Monckton comes riding in to rescue us from our evil governments (especially the UN):

Lord Monckton will present the Due Diligence on Global Warming for the people of Perth because our governments won’t.

Learn how the latest Climate Commission report was produced, and why.

He is here to inform the people of Perth on the economic shackles and loss of property and other rights occurring under the Carbon Tax; the Climate Scam and the UN Agenda 21 program and how it is so much less in terms of economic costs and loss of rights, to adapt than to try to stop any global warming.

Immune to inconsistencies

A quick diversion to point out the inconsistency, to which Monckton's prey will be completely oblivious (see attributes of the 'prey' below).

First, the false claim that warming has stopped.  The (evil UN/IPCC) climate models were wrong but the evil UN/IPCC is right (that warming has stopped).  It's not warming and it is better to adapt to the warming that is happening at the same time as it is not happening than try to stop the warming that both is and is not happening.

Scum-bucket to the Rescue

Seems a classic example of a "dirt-bag" (see below) preying on the gullible and fearful.  Unlikeable and rather ugly prey to be sure.  IMO the bigger crooks are the "scum-buckets" who deliberately set out to get the gullible 'riled up' enough to arm themselves with their walking frames and form a mindless lynch mob.

Monckton's Prey

I've been reading Dr Altemeyer's The Authoritarians.  A simplified description of attributes of 'right wing authoritarians' (high RWAs) is: under-educated, extremely fearful, gullible, bigoted,  largely incapable of using logic and dogmatic (their is nothing, no amount of facts, that will shake their 'belief' and they will often say so out loud).   Their minds are highly compartmentalised ("authoritarians can stupify you with the inconsistency of their ideas").  They rarely move beyond their tiny zone of comfort.  They are completely blind to themselves and any of their failings.  Despite being only a small minority of the general population, they believe the majority of people think and acts as they do.

Looks just like the target audience of that email, don't you think?

The Scum-buckets

Thinking about who is behind the email, seems like a text book case of figures of authority (a Viscount, almost Royalty, from Mother England, no less) deliberately setting out to scam the 'right wing authoritarians' (high RWA's as defined by Bob Altemeyer in his book).  Of the scammers, Altemeyer writes (on page 90):

...suppose you are a completely unethical, dishonest, power-hungry, dirt-bag, scum-bucket politician entertainer who will say whatever he has to say to get elected get people to his gigs. Whom are you going to try to lead, high RWAs or low RWAs? Isn’t it obvious? The easy-sell high RWAs will open up their arms and wallets to you if you just sing their song, however poor your credibility.

I substituted "entertainer" for politician and "get people to his gigs" for "get elected".

Is Monckton a deliberate "scum-bucket" or just a right wing nutter who has found his niche?  I honestly don't know.  I wonder if Monckton himself even knows.

Note: If you are a high RWA or are otherwise uninformed about the state of the climate, welcome.  (I'd love to know how you happened to stray here.)

Be aware that all evidence shows the earth is warming, and dangerously so.

Monckton is telling big fibs.

[Added links to email. Sou 28 July 2014]