Telegraphing climate facts is unhelpful to Eric Worrall at WUWT

In the land of deniosaurs, facts are most unhelpful, don't you know. As you might have gathered if you've read any denier blogs like WUWT, anyone who talks about the science of climate change is at best an "alarmist", if not full of "hate" (one of Anthony Watts' favourite words when describing climate hawks).

Today Eric Worrall decides that it's "alarmist" to lay out the facts (archived here). I'm thinking he probably doesn't know the difference between "alarmist" and "alarming". Or maybe he does and he just doesn't want to face the facts. Eric is an odd little chap who's been a science denier for some time. Maybe forever - I wouldn't know. Certainly since he started commenting on climate blogs.

Anyway, Eric thinks it's "alarmist" of Myles Allen to state the obvious (at the Telegraph):

"Normal weather is actually a bit of a thing of the past."

"Here in Oxford we maintain the world’s longest daily weather record, we just beat the previous record by a whopping two and a half degrees and that record was set back in 1852."

Anthony Watts in Somerset: not back-peddling, dredging up dredging at WUWT

As Bob Ward wrote, the terrible UK floods are doing strange things to fake sceptics.

After I wrote this article about how Anthony Watts decided that mammoth floods in Somerset were all because "the one pump" was "turned off", he shifted tack.  He isn't back-peddling, he's shuffling sideways - morphing into dredging.

Who cares why? Blame it on the guvmint!

Anthony has re-written his headline and changed his introduction.  He's decided to jump on the "dredging" bandwagon instead of the "one pump was turned off" silliness.  This latest idea of Anthony's doesn't have too many takers outside of the anti-science mob in cyberspace and a few people in the UK who are looking for someone to blame.  Anthony Watts wants to blame the "guvmint", so he's prepared to sacrifice evidence and expert advice for the sake of keeping his ideology-driven denier mates happy.

(It's interesting that he's not saying that people are to blame for living on the Somerset Levels. It would be supremely ironic if fake sceptics got so incensed with guvmints that they started blaming them for adverse weather events.)

This tweet from Anthony Watts:

and this headline (as archived here and as I discussed here)

The real reason for flooding in Somerset Levels? Not global warming – the pump was turned off!

has become this (archived here):

The real reason for flooding in Somerset Levels? Not global warming – river management
...The real issue has to do with the lack of flow capacity in the Kings Sedgemoor Drain, (gravity drain, not pumped) due to silting and vegetation encroachment, as well as similar issues in the River Parrett where a campaign was launched in 2013 to get it dredged, to no avail. ...

Anthony Watts refuses to acknowledge that the real reason for the flooding in Somerset Levels is unrelenting record rain and storms.  

Anthony Watts couldn't accept that rain can cause floods. I don't know why he won't accept that.  It's probably the same disability that stops him from accepting that as the ice melts, sea levels will rise.

Dredging won't prevent floods like this, say the experts

As for dredging, the experts say that's not the answer.  From the BBC:

Dredging is a "cruel offer of false hope" to those living in flood-prone communities according to a new report.

The document is the work of an independent body of experts from the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM).

It says that solely relying on dredging could make some areas more vulnerable to rising waters.

The CIWEM says working with nature to slow down the rate that landscapes drain water is a more practical option.

From New Scientist:

The trouble is, the recent deluge has been so sustained that nothing could have prevented all the flooding, says Cloke. "I've just been down to the Thames, and it's really full. It would be unrealistic to think you can control these enormous floods with any measures."

"The solution for residents and communities is to adapt to living with it," Cloke says. "They shouldn't expect the government or the Environment Agency to protect them from a flood that's impossible to protect against."

From the Guardian:

The Somerset Levels sit near sea level, such that the river-to-sea gradient is very shallow. This means that even if they are dredged, rivers will only drain during low tide. And widening the channels will actually allow more of the high tide to enter.

Land and waterways can be managed to reduce the damage caused by heavy rains and flooding and undoubtedly these latest floods will result in changes.  However, it won't stop rain or storms or floods from ever happening again.

Eventually, as sea levels rise and if the recent trend to flooding continues, the UK might have to adopt similar strategies to the Netherlands for low-lying areas like the Levels.

Oh, he of little brain...pumping floodwaters

Update: Anthony finally decided he'd made a blunder and has shuffled over to another blunder! (Mon Feb 17, 2014, Australian time)

I saw this on Twitter today:

Really?  Really and truly? The only pump? Was turned off? (Anthony Watts' article is archived here.)

By the way, the pump in question was said to have pumped 3 thousand million litres a year. If running 24 hours a day to do that, it would have been pumping 8,000 tonnes a day. That'd be about 0.5% of the 1.5 million tonnes a day being pumped last month.  Now there's an additional 7.5 million tonnes a day being pumped with the massive pumps on loan from the Netherlands. (See below).


Here is a picture of the just part of the flooding in Somerset.  Could one lone pump have stopped all this?

Credit: DAVID HEDGES/SWNS

Here's a map from 11 January:

I'll risk making this article overly long, because this is relevant to the UK more generally.  From the BBC:

Groundwater levels are so high in some parts of the country that flooding is likely to persist for weeks or even months, experts say.

Scientists at the British Geological Survey (BGS) say levels are likely to keep rising even if there is no more rain, as so much water is soaking through the soil.

Pumping away: 62 pumps 24 hours a day plus 13 mega-pumps from the Netherlands = 8.8 million tonnes of water a day

Back to Somerset. Thing is, if you're pumping flood waters you've got to have somewhere to pump it.  When there's water, water everywhere you've got to take a lot of care.

It can be done, though. This is from the BBC:

From the Environment Agency on 27 January:

On the Somerset Levels Environment Agency teams continue to operate up to 62 pumps, 24-hours a day, to drain an estimated 1.5 million tonnes of water (equivalent to 600 Olympic-sized swimming pools) off an area of the Levels spanning 65 square kilometres – the biggest pumping operation ever undertaken in the county.

From the Western Gazette on 12 February:

The Environment Agency has been working with other agencies on some short term, emergency options to maximise the amount of floodwater that can be pumped away from the Somerset Levels and Moors.

This includes pumping to the Taunton and Bridgwater Canal and increasing the volume of floodwater that goes down the Sowy in the River Parrett Alleviation Channel.

Pumping at Beer Wall and Dunball to increase the floodwater going into the Sowy is due to start this week.

A statement from Avon and Somerset Police said all “risks and benefits” across the Somerset Levels and Moors have been considered in making this decision.

From the BBC on 13 February:

Two pumps from the Netherlands are being used to try to reduce water levels at the flooded Somerset Levels.

The area began flooding more than six weeks ago and the continuing heavy rain has since flooded dozens of homes.

In all 13 Dutch pumps were brought in by the Environment Agency and will be used to divert water to try and cut levels on the River Tone. ...When they all are up and running they will move 7.3 million tonnes of water each day from the Somerset Levels

Where did the water come from?

From the sky.  Here is a chart from the BBC:

Source: BBC

From the UK Met blog:

As the unsettled UK weather continues this week, the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre have looked at statistics for this winter so far (from 1 December to 10 February).

These add to previous facts and figures we put out earlier this week, and show a picture of continuing exceptional rainfall across many areas.

Looking at regions around the UK, these provisional figures suggest the region of SE and Central S England has already exceeded its record winter rainfall in the series back to 1910. It is currently at 439.2mm*, less than 2mm above the previous record set in 1915 with 437.1mm of rain.

For the UK as a whole, and also for Wales, both are fairly close to their respective record wettest winter levels in the national series dating back to 1910. Average rainfall for the rest of the month would likely see those records broken.

All countries across the UK have already exceeded their typical average rainfall for the whole winter (according to the 1981-2010 long-term averages). Normally at this stage of the season, you’d expect to have seen only around 80% of that whole season average.

All areas are also on target for a significantly wetter than average winter, with typically around 130-160% of normal rainfall if we get average rainfall for the rest of February.

All countries and areas are also on target for a warmer than average winter.

The Met Office blog listed the current wettest winters with this winter to date:

Country	Year	Rainfall	Winter 2014 to date
UK	1995	485.1mm	429.2mm
ENGLAND	1915	392.7mm	328.0mm
WALES	1995	684.1mm	618.7mm
SCOTLAND	1995	649.5mm	558.5mm
NORTHERN IRELAND	1994	489.7mm	360.0mm

Despite what you read at WUWT, the 1929-30 winter isn't listed as the wettest winter.  All countries except England had their wettest winter in the 1990s and in England, the wettest winter was in 1915.

Another Daily Fail: Mat Collins does NOT disagree with Julia Slingo

Oh, and in case you read somewhere that Mat Collins disagreed with Dame Julia Slingo, Chief Scientist at the UK Met Office, who said:

Climate change is likely to be a factor in the extreme weather that has hit much of the UK in recent months, the Met Office's chief scientist has said.

Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms. 

"But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.

"There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events.".

He didn't!

@Rick__L I said that the models don't tell us much about how the jet stream is affected by climate change. I don't disagree with Julia
— Mat Collins (@mat_collins) February 16, 2014

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