Next surfing hotspot - the Arctic Ocean, plus record drought in California

A couple of items to whet your appetite for the end of week fare.

Big waves in the Arctic

Off to surf the Arctic

There have been record high waves in the Arctic, which will probably make the ice disappear more quickly in coming years. Back in September 2012, scientists measured waves of five metres or 16 feet. Maybe that's not quite enough to attract surfers from Bell's Beach, yet it's a lot more wave action than there used to be.


With the ice retreating further and further from the shores, the waves are able to grow bigger and bigger. It's suggested that these bigger waves will churn up ice and hasten its demise. Less ice means more waves - a feedback loop. While bigger waves might be great news for surfers, it will make it harder for shipping and will also exacerbate shoreline erosion. From ScienceDaily.com:

Arctic ice used to retreat less than 100 miles from the shore. In 2012, it retreated more than 1,000 miles. Wind blowing across an expanse of water for a long time creates whitecaps, then small waves, which then slowly consolidate into big swells that carry huge amounts of energy in a single punch.

The size of the waves increases with the fetch, or travel distance over open water. So more open water means bigger waves. As waves grow bigger they also catch more wind, driving them faster and with more energy.

Shipping and oil companies have been eyeing the opportunity of an ice-free season in the Arctic Ocean. The emergence of big waves in the Arctic could be bad news for operating in newly ice-free Northern waters.

"Almost all of the casualties and losses at sea are because of stormy conditions, and breaking waves are often the culprit," Thomson said.

It also could be a new feedback loop leading to more open water as bigger waves break up the remaining summer ice floes.

"The melting has been going on for decades. What we're talking about with the waves is potentially a new process, a mechanical process, in which the waves can push and pull and crash to break up the ice," Thomson said.

Waves breaking on the shore could also affect the coastlines, where melting permafrost is already making shores more vulnerable to erosion.

The observations were made as part of a bigger project by a sensor anchored to the seafloor and sitting 50 meters (more than 150 feet) below the surface in the middle of the Beaufort Sea, about 350 miles off Alaska's north slope and at the middle of the ice-free summer water. It measured wave height from mid-August until late October 2012.

Jim Thomson and Erick Rogers have written a paper about this (open access). You can read it here, or read about it at ScienceDaily.com.

Extreme drought in California

The other bit of news this week was that while drought conditions are improving in some parts of the USA, they are getting much worse in California. 58.4% of California is now in extreme drought.

Source: The National Drought Mitigation Centre

Funnily enough Anthony Watts, who hails from California, hasn't written about it on his blog. In fact for all his moaning about manners, he is scorning the suffering that the drought is bringing to farmers and others in his home state. He tweeted "and that's nothing that the state has not experienced before".

By some measures the state may not have experienced a drought like this one before, at least not as part of the USA. The megadroughts happened well before there ever was a US state of California. It only formally became part of the United States in 1850.

Back in Australia, Queensland isn't faring too well at the moment, either. This is the latest map I could find, from May this year:

Source: The Long Paddock, Qld Government

Meanwhile south of the Queensland border, fires have been busting out early in NSW.

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Jim Thomson, W. Erick Rogers. "Swell and sea in the emerging Arctic Ocean". Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; 41 (9): 3136 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059983

More on Tropical Cyclone Ita

Australia's attention is focused on Far North Queensland and Tropical Cyclone Ita. (More here.)

Source: BoM

The Cooktown shelter has gone into lockdown and power has gone out in the town.  I've just heard that people may be locked in the shelter for 48 hours. The storm will probably bring down powerlines so there'll be all sorts of dangers even after the storm passes. There's a warning that it could be a month before power is restored. (Supply in Far North Queensland was described as one long extension cord stretching north of Cairns.)

Been hearing that the cyclone shelter in Hope Vale is meant for a Cat 3 cyclone, so the people there are concerned, given Ita is a Cat 5.

The other thing is that the system is slow.  I've heard it could mean 300 mm of rain every six hours for days.  That means floods and more damage to areas already devastated by massive winds.

The locals seem to be very organised and have prepared very well. Cairns is a fair way south of landfall but is in the expected path as the system moves down the coast. (see here)

I've been collecting a few tweets about Tropical Cyclone Ita.

Warning in cairns that ATMs will stop working. #TCIta pic.twitter.com/GQHVrjI6g6
— Matt Wordsworth (@MattWordsworth) April 11, 2014

The main cyclone shelter in #Cooktown is now locked down as Ita approaches. Follow our blog for live updates #TCIta http://t.co/I3ESryk2Ig
— ABC News (@abcnews) April 11, 2014

Just got a text from Cooktown: "no power in Cooktown whole town out". It's going to be a long night in #FNQ. #TCIta
— Sam Drummond (@samdrummond) April 11, 2014

Cooktown power has just gone out, according to the town's Sovereign Hotel owner, Brendan Cullern. #TCIta
— Tropical Cyclone ITA (@Cyclone_Ita) April 11, 2014

We have set up a hotline for relatives of residents at #Bupa Mt Sheridan. For urgent inquiries regarding #TCIta please call 1300 352 638
— Bupa aged care Aust (@BupaAgedCareAus) April 11, 2014

Thinking of my family and friends in #fnq Especially all the hard working banana farmers. Stay safe. #TCIta
— Lucy Stocker (@miningmummy) April 11, 2014

@hairbyjulia1 If you haven't been through a big one before the noise of the wind and rain will shock you. #TCIta
— Pete (@PeteDotAscian) April 11, 2014

You can see some more info about Ita here.
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Battening down in Far North Queensland for Tropical Cyclone Ita

Tropical Cyclone Ita is a dangerous Category 5 heading for Far North Queensland.  It's likely to hit the coast just north of Cooktown, which is north of Cairns.

The cyclone is regarded as the worst since Yasi in 2011. At least 23 people were killed when the storm hit the Solomon Islands, and up to 10,000 people were affected in what is reported as being "a natural disaster on a scale never before witnessed in the Solomon Islands".  And that was when Ita was just a tropical low.

Here is the latest chart from the Bureau of Meteorology. (As always, click any image to enlarge it.)

Note: I've updated the chart below as an animation. Note how the track after landfall has moved closer to the more populated coastal settlements of Cape Tribulation, Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail and Townsville. Sou. (1:08 pm Friday 11 April 2014 AEST)

Source: BoM

If you are interested in how communities prepare, this page from Cairns Post has a good overview.  It includes emptying hospitals of everyone who can reasonably be sent home, shutting up shops, opening emergency shelters, sandbagging and more.

I've taken a snapshot of some satellite images too. This first one is via BoM:

Source: BoM

Update: Below is an animation showing how the cyclone is slowly moving toward the coast (Sat 11 April 2:00 pm).

Source: BoM

The rest are from the Space Science & Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison. In the longwave photo below you can clearly see the eye of the cyclone and how far the tail spreads.

Source: SSEC, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Here is the water vapour image.

Source: SSEC, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Below is the latest visible - which is a few hours old because it's night time here:

Source: SSEC, University of Wisconsin-Madison

From the Bureau of Meteorology

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 5, poses a significant threat to communities along the far north Queensland coast. At this stage it is expected to move to the southwest and make landfall between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation later on Friday as a SEVERE CATEGORY 5 TROPICAL CYCLONE with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS near the core and GALES extending some distance from the landfall location.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may develop between Cape Melville and Cooktown from as early as sunrise Friday morning before extending inland to Laura and further south to Cape Tribulation and possibly Port Douglas later in the day.  GALES may develop between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation during Friday morning before extending further south to Innisfail and inland to Kalinga, Palmerville, and Laura, and Chillagoe later in the day as the system moves closer to the coast and over land.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation including Cooktown are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast later on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland.


In an ABC report, something was written that made me think of Roger Pielke Jr.  It was that "Cooktown residents are being warned that properties built before 1985 may not be able to withstand Ita's impact."


It will be a difficult few hours and days ahead for far north Queenslanders. Stay safe.

El Niño on its way

While we're on the subject of weather, most of you will probably have heard by now that the likelihood of El Niño was upgraded the other day.  Now there is a greater than 70% chance of an El Niño this winter (southern hemisphere winter, that is 1 June to 31 August).

Source: BoM