Even if we stopped adding CO2 today*, we'd have to prepare for more hot!

In Nature's open access journal Scientific Reports there's a paper just out by Chris Huntingford and Lina M. Mercado about how much more warming to expect. Scientists report that even if we didn't add any more CO2 to the air *kept CO2 at current levels in the atmosphere (around 400 ppm), temperatures over a lot of land regions would eventually increase by more than 1.5°C. (*See comment by ATTP below.) There are two main reasons for this:

1. until we reach equilibrium, with as much radiation leaving the planet as comes in from the sun, the earth will continue to warm;
2. the land surface warm is a lot more quickly than the ocean surface and will continue to do so until the new equilibrium higher temperatures are reached.

Bombshell: Anthony Watts embraces Professor Phil Jones of UEA - but fails Anomaly 101

Total about face by Anthony Watts

Anthony Watts is finally heeding what one of the world's leading climate scientists, Professor Phil Jones from the University of East Anglia, says.  After years of libellous taunts and multiple ad homs, Anthony Watts finally concedes that Professor Jones and, presumably, other climate scientists were right all along.

Professor Jones' work documenting weather records from all over the world plus other research over the past few decades has contributed enormously to our understanding of just how much we are messing with the climate.  That is why he was maliciously targeted by disinformers like Anthony Watts and other propagandists.  They weren't able to find fault with his painstaking work so they formed a right wing lynch mob and attacked him personally instead.  It didn't work.  He and other climate scientists are still doing quality research.


While Anthony might want to kiss and make up, if I were Professor Jones I wouldn't give him the time of day.

Increased temperature variability in some NH high population areas but not at the global level

Today on his anti-scientist ad hom blog, WUWT, Watts posts about a study in Nature: No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns authored by Chris Huntingford, Philip D. Jones, Valerie N. Livina, Timothy M. Lenton & Peter M. Cox.

I can't read the study (budget doesn't stretch that far at the moment), but can copy the press release about it (my bold italics):

In recent decades there has been increased variability in yearly temperature records for large parts of Europe and North America, according to a study published online today (24th July 2013) in Nature.

The study was carried out by scientists from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, the University of East Anglia and the University of Exeter.

Lead author Dr Chris Huntingford from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology said, “Fluctuations in annual average temperatures have shown very substantial geographical alteration in recent decades. However, to our surprise, when considered across the globe, total variability has been relatively stable.”

Co-author Professor Phil Jones, from the University of East Anglia said, “We used globally-complete surface temperature data that has been constructed by merging observations and weather forecasts, and verified our findings against station temperature records”

The study concluded that regions of high variability have moved markedly over the last five decades, including to areas of high population in Europe and North America. Dr Huntingford added, “The movement of raised temperature variability to regions of high population may have contributed to the general perception that climate is becoming more volatile.”

The study also examined future projections by 17 climate model simulations.  Almost all predict that overall temperature fluctuations will actually decrease towards the end of this century, as greenhouse gas concentrations increase.

Co-author Professor Peter Cox, from the University of Exeter said, “We provide evidence that decreasing global temperature variability will be a consequence of major sea-ice loss in a warmer world.”  

Dr Huntingford added, “Our findings contradict the sometimes stated view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation.”

Technical note – The analysis looked at year-to-year variability in temperature at different geographical locations. This variability is occurring around general global warming trends. These trends were subtracted from the actual temperature measurements, and the remaining “anomalies” analyzed for changes over time and space.

What an about face.  Anthony Watts has effectively made the following declarations to his readers:

• he now accepts climate science from Professor Jones and his colleagues, 
• he has complete faith in surface station temperature records
• he agrees that many centres of high population in Europe and North America have experience greatly increased variability in temperature of late.

Next Anthony Watts will be writing that the hockey stick was never broken after all.

Watt's an anomaly?

Anthony fails Anomaly and Variability 101

More seriously though, Anthony can't tell the difference between an anomaly from a baseline temperature and temperature variability over all the world.  He stupidly writes:

Another blow to the “heat waves and extreme weather are on the increase” alarm meme:

No, Anthony.  While I applaud you for finally giving credence to Professor Jones and his colleagues, you are just being silly trying to say that this research means heat waves and extreme weather  aren't on the increase.  Heat waves are getting hotter, downpours are getting heavier - that is, they are both getting more extreme than they used to be.