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Saturday, December 21, 2019

Fires - follow your plan but expect the unexpected

Sou | 1:50 AM Go to the first of 13 comments. Add a comment
From Mount Beauty Dec 2006
The fires across Australia this year are horrific. Because the smoke is inundating the biggest capital city (not good), people are taking notice (which is good). The fires this season are probably vying for the worst ever experienced in this country. There will be worse to come with more global warming, so it's important to be prepared.

I expect there are a lot of people who've never had an up close and personal experience with fires or smoke, so I figured I'd put some thoughts down from my own experience. I'm not a fire expert but I've been through a few huge fires in my time, including three big ones this century. (If you've got better or different advice, based on your knowledge and experience, don't hesitate to say in the comments below.)

Unlike the current fires, the big ones that threatened our town were large and slow burning in the main, with some exceptions. Like most of the current fires, two were started by lightning. More on that in a bit.

Smoke hazard: One thing with fires in the bush that seem to go on forever (weeks not days), is the smoke. This causes problems for communities - you can't see flames if you can't see, which adds to anxiety. Visibility can get to a few metres some days. You can't breathe properly, your lungs hurt and your eyes suffer. Community meetings can be frustrating when you're told - well we can't see the fire front so we can't say how far it is from anywhere.

Smoke from a local fire.
Smoke also causes problems for firefighters. Planes and helicopters have trouble with visibility and might not be able to be used. Everyone, especially firefighters, suffer smoke inhalation. Firefighters might not know where to best target their efforts.

Smoke cloud - Mount Beauty 2006
I'd advise wearing a P2 mask, which filters out the worst smoke contaminants. Don't worry about looking uncool - you might even set a trend and make mask-wearing the latest and greatest fashion. It beats damaging your lungs and worse.

Embers: Especially when it's windy, embers can be carried kilometers from the fire. On a (relatively) clear day, you can see the spot fires starting up ahead of the main fire. If you're trying to protect your home and there's an ember storm, it will be almost impossible to keep up.

Dropping fire retardant on a fire
on a hill behind our house.
Water: It can be tempting to stay to protect your home. You've got hoses out and bins and buckets filled with water, and lots of towels or hessian bags or blankets. You've filled every bath and basin. You've blocked and filled all the gutters with water. You think you'll be fine if you stay. The problem comes if you're relying on town water coming out of the tap, and everyone else in town does the same. Then, because everyone's pouring out gallons of water at the same time, the town's water pressure drops or dries up altogether.

Or maybe you're in a region where there's drought (much of Australia), and there's little to no water available. Helicopters and planes use water from local dams, but in a drought the dams might all be empty. Or maybe you're relying on water in a tank - except it's so hot the tank has melted. Or it could be you're using a pump to get water, but the pump stops working.

After the fire passes, the town water supply might be contaminated, especially after the next rain that washes everything that burnt into the water supply. Be prepared to get bottled water or, if you're lucky and there's still tap water, to boil it for the next few weeks.

Heat: I'm not talking about hot weather. Yes, indeed, hot weather can be deadly. Some places here are seeing maximum temperatures approaching 50C (122F). What I'm talking about is heat from the fire. If you've ever been near a bonfire you'll understand what I mean.

Whatever you do, make sure you wear protective clothing. (Look at what the firies wear even in unbelievable heat.) Don't wear thongs (flip flops), or shorts and singlet. Don't wear clothes made of flammable material. Go for wool or some other fire-resistant material with some insulating property. Wear long sleeves, long pants, gloves, boots and socks, and a mask. You'll get hot but you'll be less likely to get radiation burns. (If you've got a working hose then, as a last resort, spray the water to form a barrier between you and the flames.)

Wind: There is the normal wind that comes from changes in air pressure. A shift in that wind will change the direction of fire. It could change a fire front from being 200 m wide and heading east (fanned by a westerly wind) to a fire front 5 km wide and heading north (fanned by a strong southerly change).

There is also the wind created by the fire itself. When the fire is vigorous or fast moving, it can create its own weather. This makes an already unpredictable fire extremely unpredictable and dangerous.

Roads: You've finally decided enough is enough and it's too dangerous to remain, so you jump in the car or sturdy ute and head for anywhere but the fire. Problems you might encounter are that you can't see where you're going because of the smoke; or worse, you can't get through the road because of fallen trees. This is a huge problem if there are only one or two roads, which is the case in many areas.

The moral is, don't wait. Leave early.

Communications & electricity: We're used to picking up the phone, getting on the internet, watching television or tuning into the radio. In a big fire, communications towers can be destroyed and there can be power outages. You've been warned.

Edit - take cash: I should have added, make sure you've enough cash for food and petrol (gas). If you're trapped and the power is out, the ATMs and EFTPOS and credit card machines probably won't work. You might not be able to buy petrol or food but you'll give yourself a better chance of doing so. [Sou - 2 Jan 2020]



Firefighters: In much of Australia, fires on properties outside of the major cities are fought by organised volunteers, except for government land, where they are fought by government workers. Volunteer firefighters, like Victoria's CFA and NSW RFS are mostly men and women who live and work in country towns and on farms. It used to be they'd go out and put out a haystack fire, or a grass fire that might burn for a day or so. Now they can be giving up their work and income for weeks on end, fighting fires in their own district or traveling far from home and helping protect private property from megafires elsewhere. Not only are they giving up income, their employers (if they aren't fighting fires) are having to do without staff. Families have to make do on less income and with less support.

Some of our local fire fighters looking after us while there's a fire up the hill. Thank you.
Then there's a problem that probably occurs too often. The local fire crew is off fighting a fire in the next valley (or another one 500 km away), and a fire breaks out in their home district, but there aren't enough people or equipment to fight it because they're all off fighting a fire elsewhere.

You rarely hear firefighters complain. Firefighting and emergency services are what they volunteer to do, and they are committed to it. In my view the system will need to change long term, and we should be compensating them. Until then (and after then), just bear in mind that firefighters (whether volunteers or government) will probably be tackling the fires with the following priorities: save lives first, then save property, then save bushland and, occasionally, wildlife.

Most people are aware and responsible when it comes to bushfires. Sometimes people can be unthinking, however. People who put themselves in harm's way, resulting in firefighters coming to their rescue, might be not just risking their own lives, they might be preventing the firefighters from saving lives elsewhere.

On that note, don't go gawking. You'll not just be risking your own life, you'll be cluttering up the road and endangering emergency responders as well as people who may be fleeing for their lives.

Managing emotions: Unless you've got no emotional capacity, you'll most likely be affected in one way or another if you've been through a fire or know people who are. Long drawn out fires take their toll. You're woken in the night by the loud cracking of exploding trees, or you can't get a decent night's sleep for weeks on end because you never know if the fire is far enough away or if it's working it's way down the hill behind you. You'll probably also find yourself becoming addicted to the radio. (You'll have dug out that old transistor radio and picked up some spare batteries, to tune into the emergency broadcast service on the local ABC.)

While long drawn out fires can heighten anxiety, immediate fire danger can elicit panic, or maybe a deceiving calm. You might think you're behaving rationally and with a clear head. Unless you're trained and have experience with disasters (and maybe even then), despite feeling calm and rational you risk making poor decisions.

If you've already got a plan (and you know you should) then follow it. Don't change things at the last minute.

Weeks, months, even years after living through a disaster, people can be affected. It might be post-traumatic stress or it might be a shadow of PTSD (not full blown). (Be prepared the following autumn to get a rush of adrenalin when you see leaves fall from trees, before you realise they are just autumn leaves not embers.)

Eerie colours - 2006 fires.


Implement your fire plan: If you're advised to get the hell out, do so. Grab your pre-packed bag that has water, masks, survival gear, protective clothing. Round up your family and put all your pets in their cages and into the car. Check you've got your wallet and phone and car keys. Jump in the car (which you've kept charged or full of fuel), do a final head count, and head for the nearest safe place. (You have looked up the designated safe places, haven't you. You know where they are.)

Whatever you do, don't go back home until the all clear has been given. That could kill you (and has killed people).

Before finishing, a word about deniers. They are dangerous (as well as all their other flaws). I've seen deniers claim "this is nothing new". That's wrong. Fires today are worsened by climate change. Each decade brings worse fires. The fires this season could well be the worst in Australia's history. The more prepared we are, the better the chance that while they might be the worst by many measures, they won't be the deadliest.

Another thing I've seen is deniers still trying to argue there's some sort of scientific conspiracy and that Australia isn't really that hot, or the records have been altered to make out it's got hotter than it really has - which is as ridiculous a notion as it sounds.

Then there are people claiming the fires were lit by people. Maybe some were, but the biggest and worst fires were caused by lightning. In any case, in catastrophic fire conditions it doesn't matter where the spark comes from. When weather conditions are not conducive to fires, whether they are started by lightning, a train, a power line, an angle grinder or an arsonist, they cause a lot less harm.

Final word: Lives are worth a lot more than houses, or art works, or photographs, or jazz collections, or whatever might cause you to delay or hesitate to leave. Too many people have lost their lives by remaining. Few people lose their lives by leaving early when a fire threatens.

Final final word: I hesitated a bit before writing this up. I'm not an expert on fire or disaster management. However, I've been through some major fires in recent years and I've not seen anything much like this on the web, despite the fires raging. It might be food for thought to someone.




13 comments:

  1. Why is it that as you go north and the climate warms, or go inland and the climate is drier, the risk of destructive bushfires reduces ?
    So the cold southern Victoria and Tasmania are dangerous fire zones whereas the hot northern region has comparatively low risk of death and property destruction.
    You need a unique and unusual combination of factors to get a dangerous bushfire zone, that is comparatively uncommon in the world.
    If the climate changes you are just as likely to see a reduction in the dangerous fire zones.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "If the climate changes you are just as likely to see a reduction in the dangerous fire zones."

      The problem may be that the assemblage of flora is now in a climate that is outside the climatic range that it has evolved to cope with. So there's a mismatch everywhere between species present and species (if any) that are appropriate to the now current climate zone.

      Delete
  2. Good question, George. The short answer is the difference in fires in different parts of the country is mainly down to vegetation, topography and humidity (and population density).

    On population - people notice fires more when there are more people affected. Smoke in Sydney and Melbourne sells papers. So does fire in outer suburbs (e.g. Adelaide Hills, Sydney, Melbourne outer regions). Otherwise, fires in rural areas don't get much mention as a general rule, no matter how big and bad and long-lasting they are.)

    In Victoria and Tasmania the dry season is summer, and Victoria is usually much hotter than (coastal) Queensland at that time. Tassie can get very hot these days in summer, too. (Melbourne gets hotter summer days than Sydney mostly. Brisbane and further north has even less variation in temperature over the seasons.)

    Southern summer is the wet season (usually) in the northern part of the country (monsoons). This year the wet season was late, which is one reason for the monstrous fires in Queensland and northern NSW.

    Inland there are lots of fires, it's just that there aren't as many people so you don't hear about them (and in many cases, they just run till they burn out). The vegetation inland is very different to that in Victoria and Tasmania. It's grassland and low shrubs in the pastoral zone, and not much of that in the desert areas, so fires there are more grass fires than forest fires, and have different characteristics. When fires get into mountain country (the Great Dividing Range runs down from Queensland to Victoria), it's very difficult to control.

    I dug out an image of the fires across Australia in January 2013 (our "angry summer"). Here's one of the fires across Australia right now.

    We're seeing worse fires and more instances of catastrophic fire conditions this century than in the last one and I don't see much hope for any reduction in dangerous fire zones.

    ReplyDelete
  3. If only we built more wind turbines, we could have brought the rain back...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The golden rule is that if you don't have anything worth saying then just stick to hello.

      Delete
    2. Completely ignoring the factor of increased temperature on fire effect. How do you sleep at night? Only by believing a lot of fantasies I suspect.

      Delete
  4. @ George GDecember 21, 2019 at 10:27 AM

    You need a unique and unusual combination of factors to get a dangerous bushfire zone, that is comparatively uncommon in the world. If the climate changes you are just as likely to see a reduction in the dangerous fire zones.

    Not necessarily unique and I am not sure about uncommon. Over the last few years parts of Canada[1, 2] and Russia[3, 4] have had nasty wildfires. The climates and vegetation are drastically different from eastern Australia or California which are burning this year. The main components seem to be drought and a lot of “stuff” to burn in all cases.

    If climate change brings more droughts and flooding it may be, not so much a reduction in dangerous fire zones, just a change in where they are.

    1. Fort McMurray wildfire

    2. Quebec 2005

    3. 2019 Siberian wildfires

    4. 2015 Russian wildfires

    ReplyDelete
  5. The better masks to get are the full-face type that completely cover your mouth and nose, with removable filters. The N95, N99 type face masks "work", but frankly, they're not good enough, and still allow in plenty of particulates. You also have to discard them fairly quickly.

    I've had plenty of experience with fires, living in the Western US, near and in big fires, and working in fire camps. You want a rubberized mask like a 3M model, the same as painters use. Much more comfortable to wear for long periods of time. Make sure you check the fitment, they come in small, medium and large sizes for different size faces. I've got sets for my entire family and have had to use them and wear them for weeks at a time.

    There are also varies house fire treatments that can be sprayed onto a house, barn, fence, etc., that will repel fire. I don't know if these are available in your country, but they can be bought online. Expensive, but they can make the difference on saving a house or losing it. Application is straightforward, spray it on with a water hose. These materials have a good track record of working and saving structures.

    Along with the other advice given, ensure your vehicles are gassed up and ready to go. You will need food and water and toilet paper to take with you, you might be stuck in a vehicle for many hours. You might also have to sleep in your car, so take either sleeping bags or blankets. ~Survival Acres~

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a good point, Survival Acres. The flimsier masks are fine if it's only for a day or two, but if the smoke goes on and on and on, like is happening now in Australia, then the sturdier masks are the way to go.

      I've also added a note to the article about having cash with you. When the power goes out you probably won't be able to buy food or petrol using credit cards, or get any cash from ATMs. In our cashless society that's quite an important thing to note. (I rarely carry or use cash, but after reading about the difficulties faced by people trapped in the current fires, I will keep some notes on hand from now on.)

      Delete
  6. Here's a quick update on the local situation.

    Last night our local shire was one of several declared a "State of Disaster" area, which will apply for the next seven days.

    This morning I woke up to more smoke hiding the hills. We're fine here, but visitors are wise to leave in case roads get blocked today or tomorrow and they can't get home. I met someone yesterday who's heading out this morning for that reason.

    The car's packed (well, almost) and ready to go in case things change suddenly, though I don't expect this to happen. This is a first. (So organised!) I didn't even do that when the town was surrounded by fires back in 2003 and 2006 and 2009 (the fires are not anywhere near our town at the moment); but after what's been happening it's best to be prepared for anything. The way things are, there could be other dangerous days ahead. It's still only early summer.

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  7. Replies
    1. Thanks Jammy. There was an alert after all, so a lot of people in town (including me) have left home for a day or so till things settle down a bit.

      Delete
    2. Oh, boy. That is starting to get close. Take good care of yourself.

      Delete

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