Just when you think that Anthony Watts couldn't make a bigger fool of himself, you find out that he can. This is more properly an update to the previous article, but given the crazy reaction to the hottest year on record, it's worth a separate article. In that article I groaned at Anthony saying it couldn't be the hottest year ever globally because in the USA it was "only" the third hottest year ever.
I should know by now that with Anthony Watts you have to check every little thing. Thanks to Mark in the comments, I've discovered that Anthony "surface station" Watts can't even read a temperature anomaly chart. Harbouring all sorts of paranoid conspiracy theories, he wrote:
When you look at temperature that isn’t biased by continuous adjustments, such as NOAA’s highly questionable fiddling with sea surface temperature data this year, you find that 2015 was not the hottest record at all according to the U.S> Climate Reference Network data, which is a state of the art system designed to need no “corrections” of any kind. 2015 comes in third for the USA:Let's not dwell on Anthony not wanting sea surface temperatures to contaminate the US land surface data (come again? Are there ships and buoys on land now?). Let's look at his evidence...
This is the chart he showed to prove it was the third hottest year on record. If you click on it to make it bigger you can see he even put a dab of yellow on that last data point on the right:
- Yes, it was, as he said, the Climate Reference Network.
- Yes, the dot on the far right is the third highest dot.
- Hang on....
Not year - month!
Woops, its a monthly chart. It's not that last year was the third hottest year on record, it was the last month was the third hottest MONTH on record. It wasn't the third hottest December either, it was the third hottest month of any month since the record began - a whole ten years ago! (It wasn't the third hottest month since 1895.)
It was the second hottest year on record, Anthony you goose
You can check for yourself. On both the annual records that go to 2015, last year was the second hottest year on record:
It was a very hot December - the hottest since records began in the USA
Now if Anthony hadn't been in such a flap, itching to get his article on line to prove he was cleverer than all those scientists at NOAA, then maybe he would have read the chart properly. Or maybe he would have plotted an annual chart. And if he'd kept up with the weather news and learnt about the hot December, then maybe he'd have twigged that what he thought was a rather warm 2015 was in fact just a very hot December. The hottest in the record for the USA. The very hottest December. Here's the chart for the month of December only, going all the way back to 1895. In all that time there's never been a hotter December in the USA:
- For any data, pick the data set(s) you want from the choices on the left, and the time period you want from the drop down lists, and the type of data (eg temperature anomaly).
- For a single month e.g. December only, from the choices up top, select the time scale of 1 month and pick the month
- For annual data, choose "annual"
- For monthly data for a full year, choose "previous 12 months"
- Play around with the choices, there are more than I've listed above.
More gems - why would you trust Anthony Watts?
While that USCRN data only spans a little more than a decade, it is instructive for comparison to claims made. NOAA doesn’t seem to like referencing this state of the art USCRN system in their public reports, preferring instead to rely on their old, messy, error prone, and highly adjusted COOP/USHCN network which has been shown to have significant biases. They claim in their SOTC report from Jan 2016 that it was the 2nd hottest year on record for the CONUS:
In 2015, the contiguous United States (CONUS) average temperature was 54.4°F, 2.4°F above the 20th century average. This was the second warmest year in the 121-year period of record for the CONUS.Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201513
As I’ve said before, NOAA can’t seem to keep historical temperatures static, and thus the claims made referencing them, accurate. They change from month to month, and when there is no firmament to the history they present, why trust them?
Anthony Watts is playing the clown. Just imagine if NOAA took him at his word and started saying that this year or this month was the hottest in the record, using the ten years of USCRN as the record. You can hear the howls of protest from WUWT already. It's not a long enough time - they'd shriek. And they'd be right. In any case, where they overlap, the long term record is virtually indistinguishable from the pristine USCRN, which speaks to its reliability.
National USHCN monthly temperature updates have been discontinued. The official CONUS temperature record is now based upon nClimDiv. USHCN data for January 1895 to August 2014 will remain available for historical comparison.
|Bad hair day!|
Maybe it's just that Anthony Watts has been having a bad hair day, or a bad hair week, or a bad hair year, or ....
From the HotWhopper archives
- Desperate Deniers Part 1: Stephen Hodgart from University of Surrey and HadCRUT4 - January 2016
- Desperate Deniers Part 2: David Middleton fakes a satellite data "Just for grins"- January 2016
- Desperate Deniers Part 3: Rud Istvan mixes up GISTemp data versions - January 2016
- Desperate Deniers Part 4: Anthony Watts is shame-proof despite all his bloopers about NOAA - January 2016
- 2015 is the hottest year on record by a massive 0.13°C - January 2016
- An economist should know better, maybe ...but what about Anthony Watts? - May 2013