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Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Denier weirdness: It hasn't warmed since 2017!

Sou | 6:51 AM Go to the first of 26 comments. Add a comment
Remember how Bob Tisdale thought that Mark Boslough's bet was foolish? Well he finally twigged what the bet was about, and was even more aghast that anyone would be expected to bet. He realised just how laughable it would be to bet that the world would cool, which is an unusual attitude for a hard-core science denier like Bob Tisdale. His chart showed just how much it's been warming, which is a most unusual thing for anyone at WUWT to do.

Bob Tisdale knows it's been getting mighty hot. Source: WUWT


Perhaps in part because Bob showed just how hot it's been getting, some of the WUWT deniers seem to accept it. They aren't giving up though. The new denier chant of "it hasn't warmed since 2017" has already begun at WUWT, two years early. The following comments were seen under another article by Bob Tisdale (in which he shoved the latest global temperatures down to the level of those in 1997/98 to compare ENSO events):


richard verney  January 4, 2016 at 5:37 pm
...If there is no long lasting step change in temperatures coincident with the current strong El Nino what is likely to happen is that over the next 4 months, there will be a short lived spike, and then the following La Nina in late 2016/early 2017 will bring temperatures down again, and following that La Nina temperatures may well stabilize around the 2001 to 2003 level going forward into 2018/19.


Joel O'Bryan  January 4, 2016 at 7:31 pm
...The 2016-17 La Nina (a reasonable assumption) will occur during the wind down of SC24 to its minimum in late-2018 or 2019. The step change may be down, not up with La Nina 2017.

At least Joel isn't buying Bob Tisdale's "global warming is caused by El Nino's" crap.
ENSO has of course been running for many millennia. If there were only step-up temp shifts, the oceans would be boiling by now. Climate system feedbacks and the random interplay between solar cycle mins/maxes and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate cycles ultimately ensures reversion to mean and a stable temperature.

Allan MacRae  January 5, 2016 at 4:56 am
...I think we will see a downward (cooling) trend, starting as early as 2H2017. 
...Care to estimate when global cooling will be apparent in the satellite Lower Troposphere (LT) temperature data?

My best guess based on conversations with my knowledgeable friends, is some time in 2017.

That will, of course, require some time thereafter to confirm it is not just a downward blip – but I am guessing that 2017 will be the inflection year that clearly exhibits, in the satellite LT data, the start of a multi-decadal global cooling cycle. 

Here's a mock-up of Richard Verney's prediction for the record, in case anyone wants to check back in 2018.


26 comments:

Rattus Norvegicus said...

And glaciers will advance to cover the earth! Be afraid, be very afraid!

John Russell (@JohnRussell40) said...

Maybe we should start our own snappy climate meme? How about, "it hasn't cooled for 45 years?"

Sou said...

Or "there hasn't been a coldest year on record for more than a hundred years".

JCH said...

At Open Mind a commenter named Gerg says it was January 1861... before all the Confederates seceded.

Bill H said...

My word, Bob T.'s seriously off-message here isn't he? I thought the only temperature series with peer-review backing that anyone could trust nowadays was RSS. I reckon a lifetime ban is in order

John Russell (@JohnRussell40) said...

The times they are a changing. The Daily Mail prints a George Monbiot flooding article, David Rose compliments him on it and no one dare crawl out from under a stone and say that the current floods in the UK are not the result of climate change.

Bernard J. said...

There's a denialist ratchet occurring here... Any upward movement in the temperature record is a temporary bit of noise, but every (on average) smaller tick downward is the "cooling"/"not warming /"pause" signal manifesting. Do they not see the absurdity of their stance*?

Though after a fashion the Denialati are correct - there is a cooling trend: it just happens to be a negative cooling trend...

[* Rhetorical question...]

bill said...

Bernard, you might want to pop over to ATTP's and have a word with AZC, who's doing a Pinker and maintaining that there haven't really been any continental extinctions because Australia = an island!

George Montgomery said...

"Tell 'em they're dreamin'!" (apologies to 'Darryl Kerrigan')

Bert from Eltham said...

You can say that again!

Magma said...

July 2022, as the Earth swelters through yet another mysteriously warm year of unknown cause, a rogue interstellar Earth-size planet enters the solar system in the plane of the ecliptic and scores a perfect bulls-eye retrograde crash into Venus at a relative velocity of 25 km/s. As a vast cloud of dust to continent-size debris spreads out through the plane of what used to be Venus's orbit and inwards towards Mercury, solar radiation reaching the Earth drops 1%, 2%, 5%... and ultimately 10%. Cold and snow and ice blanket the planet outside the tropics. A new ice age begins.

"Told you so," says a smug Tony Watts, sitting in front of a warm coal fire.

Brandon R. Gates said...

Not this thread, but written today ...

------------

Smokey throws trump: Fine, you just post a verifiable measurement quantifying the fraction of AGW out of total natural warming.

I decide to take the pedantic route this time: Can’t be done since a “fraction” of something is a calcuation based on at least two input values.

Smokey says quite possibly the funniest thing I have ever read: We already have the existing input value: the Null Hypothesis.

Brandon R. Gates said...

Better lucky and right than unlucky and wrong. Which reminds me, I swear I remember Bob Tisdale writing recently, "I don't make predictions." Let me seeeeeee ... ah:

https://archive.is/yy8k3#selection-1331.0-1377.7

Duty called, apparently.

PG said...

That's not an Island. THIS is an island

metzomagic said...

A rare (or... maybe not) insight into DB Stealey's right-wing authoritarian follower mindset. Because he is working backwards from the assumption that almost all of the recent warming is 'natural' (or else his entire world-view falls apart), he can't even get his basic maths straight: there is total warming, some fraction of which is natural, and the rest, which is due to mankind.

As we know, mankind is in fact responsible for more than 100% of the warming since the 1950's. But the warming is offset somewhat by the negative forcing of aerosols, caused by activities like burning half of Indonesia to make way for palm oil plantations.

Harry Twinotter said...

Bill.

Yes, AZC is doing a good job distracting people from the original ATTP post with his concern trolling and nit-picking.

Harry Twinotter said...

Magma.

Nibiru? :-)

Harry Twinotter said...

Brandon.

Ha ha ha. Could start up the whole "null hypothesis" debate again aka much ado about null-thing :-)

Tadaaa said...

interestingly reading the comments on the WUWT blog (referenced above) at least one person (Adam from Kansas) is beginning to admit that if the temps/trend continue to rise then, well maybe there is something in this AGW "malarkey" after all

"I was as excited as any other skeptic when the pause kept going with the prospect of temperatures turning downward, but eventually it may come to the point where we have to face facts"

you will never change the minds of the hard-core deniers, after all anything can be made to sound plausible you just have to be gullible to believe it

Anonymous said...

I cannot see the comment (Adam, Kansas) you refer to. Am I looking at the correct blog?

"Evolutions of Global Surface and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies in Responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El NiƱos"

Or has Adam been modded away?

Anonymous said...

Wrong blog ...

Tadaaa said...

the one referenced in the "finally twigged" link at the beginning of this article

Tadaaa said...

"A Foolish Bet about 2016 Global Surface Temperatures – It’s Nothing More than a Silly Publicity Stunt"

Mark Ryan said...

A trend in 46th birthdays started this year for me. The evidence suggests I will be 46 for quite a few years before a new trend begins.

citizenschallenge said...

Wait, you mean this is all some Union States plot?

Jgnfld said...

You see the same "reasoning" with arctic ice. "Recovery" happens all the time but continuing decline somehow just never does.