Sunday, July 7, 2013

How the American Midwest has been relocated to Central England

Sou | 1:27 AM Go to the first of 4 comments. Add a comment

Today on WUWT, David "funny sunny" Archibald seems to have relocated the Midwest (USA) to central England.

He's put up a chart of monthly temperatures - comparing monthly temperatures for the year 1740 with the monthly averages for the period 1736 to 1739.  I've done the same but have added the monthly averages for the past ten years - 2003 to 2012 inclusive.  Here it is:

Data source: HadCET

The reason I say that David relocated the Midwest is because this is what he writes in reference to his version of the above (as above but minus the last ten years):
This graph shows the average of the monthly temperatures for the years 1736 to 1739 plotted with the monthly temperatures of the year 1740:...
... With respect to growing conditions, the 1740 season was a month later than the average of the previous five years and the peak months of the season were 2.5°C cooler. To get a perspective on how a repeat of 1740 might affect growing conditions in the Corn Belt, Bill Fordham, advising the grain industry in the Midwest, has kindly provided an update on the current season:

Do you think David Archibald is:
  1. claiming that Central England was the entire world from 1736 to 1740, or
  2. claiming that the Midwest has been relocated to central England.

There are no tangible prizes for the answer.  Just the honour and glory of peeking into the strange mind of David "funny sunny" Archibald.  The rest of us will wonder why Anthony Watts post articles like this on his blog.

As for comparing temperatures in central England of the mid-eighteenth century to that of the last ten years, it appears that summer is lasting longer than it did back then.  However the range of temperature is not all that different.  If you look at the long term annual average temperatures it tells a more complete story. (Click chart to enlarge it.)

Data source: HadCET

Just like most of the rest of the world, central England is getting hotter.  You'll notice that 2010, the hottest year on record globally, was a very cold year in central England.  That would have dragged down the average of the last ten years in the top chart.


  1. "The rest of us will wonder why Anthony Watts post articles like this on his blog"

    My take is that there are three elements at play:

    1) A need to post tabloid-style articles trashing climate change.

    2) Weak review/fact-checking of articles before publication (limited to Watt's own intelligence)

    3) A system in place to ignore errors and ban commenters that repeatedly point out errors.

    These three elements together produce a perverse form of Darwinism at WUWT that selects for incompetence.

    Take #1, those incompetent enough at analysis to reach wild conclusions are more successful at being published at WUWT as guest posters than those who are competent enough to spot the errors and never submit in the first place. Hence the rise of Archibald, Easterbrook, D'Aleo, Corbyn, Monckton, Bastardi, etc.

    For example if Easterbrook was competent enough to realize GISP2 isn't global temperature in the first place he wouldn't have had a string of guest posts at WUWT.

    #2 allows the incompetence in.

    #3 keeps the incompetence in.

    The irony is that WUWT is based on attacking the competency of others and demanding high standards...

    1. "2) Weak review/fact-checking of articles before publication (limited to Watt's own intelligence)"

      That would be "limited to Watt's own intelligence, knowledge and honesty". In other words, nearly non-existent.

    2. Watts claims his site is peer review by Internet. On that basis, he should welcome corrections, insist that the posts incorporate those changes in order to present the best case possible. Actually his site is like the National Enquirer, always chasing sensation and novelty.

  2. They do say people become like their own Downfall parody. Or they might some day. This does seem to be Watts's fate.

    When days are difficult for deniers (which is to say, every boreal summer now) they take refuge in the past or on distant planets, anything but the here and now. I doubt they'll check in again until the record recovery rate of Arctic sea-ice come December. If ...

    That drought in the Mid-West drags on, while there are floods and wildfires in almost every news-cycle. Meanwhile ... climate elves.


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