The little WUWT-ers have been getting quite worked up lately. I think it's got something to do with the fact that reports from GISS and NOAA and the Hadley Centre and others point to the fact that 2014 was the hottest year on record.
Today Bob Tisdale, who seems to be Anthony Watts' proxy while he's on holidays or whatever he's been doing this past few weeks, has written a very short article about a new paper in Nature Climate Change. Very short for Bob Tisdale, that is. It must be almost another record. And he's broken still another record. There's not a single drawing, diagram or chart of anything, let alone sea surface temperatures.
What Bob did write? Well you can read it for yourself here if you want to. The paper is more interesting than Bob's article. Wenju Cai et al have written in Nature Climate Change about some work they've been doing on modeling ENSO.
What they figure seems to be that ENSO events could get more extreme as global warming continues. In particular, they found that extreme La Niña's may become more common, occurring on average once every 13 years instead of once every 23 years. This is related to extreme El Niños. Here is the abstract (my paras):
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture.
The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific.
Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming, but how La Niña will change remains unclear.
Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.
If they are correct, then Australia had better prepare. We had to fork out for a flood levy to bail out Queensland back in 2011. Queensland can't afford flood insurance any more. That season there were huge floods all over the country. We had to pay for our own floods in our own regions, plus the recovery from the floods in Queensland. And given the current Australian government is doing precious little to slow greenhouse warming, we'd better start saving our pennies - because we could have to pay up much more often in coming years.
If you don't remember the event, here is a chart of sea level. The floods were so massive they caused the oceans to empty!
|Data source: U Colorado|
This particular study was another international collaboration involving scientists from Australia, China, the USA, the UK, France and Peru. ScienceDaily has a press release, which states in part:
Co-author Professor Collins, from Exeter's College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences explained: "Our previous research showed a doubling in frequency of extreme El Niño events, and this new study shows a similar fate for the cold phase of the cycle. It shows again how we are just beginning to understand the consequences of global warming."
The new research was led by scientist Dr Wenju Cai, from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and featured scientists from Australia, China, the US, France and Peru.
Dr Cai indicated the potential impact of this change in climate. He said: "An increased frequency in extreme La Niña events, most of which occur in the year after an extreme El Niño, would mean an increase in the occurrence of devastating weather events with profound socio-economic consequences."
Bob Tisdale of course doesn't believe it. It's science and Bob doesn't "believe" science. He wandered off talking about climate models that he doesn't believe in either. And misrepresenting Kevin Trenberth as usual. Bob's one weird bod. He doesn't understand the first thing about climate models but likes to make out that he does.
From the WUWT comments.
Apart from it looking to be an interesting paper, the other reason I'm writing this is because of the general hysteria that is evident at WUWT. I do think that some deniers are losing what little grip on reality they might have once had. Here's a sample:
AnonyMoose is confused. He or she seems to think that there cannot be La Nina's while the world is warming.
January 28, 2015 at 8:13 am
Aren’t La Ninas associated with cooling?
SMC is under a similar delusion from the look of it:
January 28, 2015 at 8:24 am
The CAWG faithful are just trying to cover all the bases. Not matter what happens, it’s all man’s fault by emitting the evil CO2 greenhouse gas pollution.
Alan Poirier rounds off that exchange by summing up what has happened to the intellect of deniers at WUWT:
January 28, 2015 at 11:31 am
CO2 is the most powerful molecule in the universe. It causes everything: More El Ninos, more La Ninas, more cold, more heat, droughts, floods. Truly amazing. It’s most pernicious effect, however, is on IQs.
As is normal for deniers, most of the WUWT-ers didn't bother reading the abstract or press release. And Bob Tisdale didn't describe the paper. So there were lots of dumb comments like this one from Robert Wykoff, who wrote:
January 28, 2015 at 8:29 am
So, if we suddenly go into an “extreme” El Nino regime, will that be caused by global warming too?
There was one normal person, trafamadore:
January 28, 2015 at 8:39 am
While the science world seriously tries to understand ENSO, WUWT decides that “Once again, the models simulate little if anything correctly. The same arguments apply to the newer paper Cai et al (2015), so there’s no need to repeat them”
You guys are pretty entertaining.Trafamadore hit a nerve with more than one person, including dbstealey (aka Smokey the sock-puppeting mod), who made his usual inane comment:
January 28, 2015 at 10:13 am
It’s really entertaining seeing that folks like trafamadope actually believe that warming causes cooling. Entertaining… and scary, because they can vote.
This was followed by some of the silly one-liners that are so typical of WUWT, with some verging on hysteria and others invoking deep, dark conspiracies.
January 28, 2015 at 8:39 am
oh noooooo…more warm cold
January 28, 2015 at 8:40 am
So… everything is caused by global warming, even ice ages (I expect them to say that soon).
January 28, 2015 at 8:41 am
Why don’t these bozos make it easy on themselves (and us) by telling us what global warming will NOT be responsible for causing?
January 28, 2015 at 9:53 am
The underlying cause of Climate Science going off the rails and into the ditch is a multi-factorial ensemble of dishonesty, rent-seeking, and ego-reputation saving. Everything else is the effect.
January 28, 2015 at 10:56 am
Joe, the problem is that they are helping the taking away of our democratic rights and wasting billions that could be better used.
January 28, 2015 at 8:56 am
January 28, 2015 at 9:18 am
The biggest scam and fraud in the history of the world.
You get the picture, I'm sure. I wouldn't mind betting that for a lot of these old guys (and I bet most of them are) - they only post a comment to see their name in print. They could never have got letters to the editor published in days gone by. However the Internet has given them their five minutes of fame that they'd never have dreamed of getting before they discovered computers and modems, a couple of years ago :D
Wenju Cai, Guojian Wang, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, Lixin Wu, Fei-Fei Jin, Axel Timmermann, Mat Collins, Gabriel Vecchi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Matthew H. England, Dietmar Dommenget, Ken Takahashi, Eric Guilyardi. "Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming." Nature Climate Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2492