One of HotWhopper's visitors, Greig, referred us to an article written back in 1995. The article was written by someone called Thomas Gale Moore, who was at the time writing as Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution. I googled Thomas Gale Moore and found that he was also associated with the pro-tobacco lobby. It seems he has a history of disinformation.
Greig was citing the article to support his claim that "there is plenty of scientific and practical reason to question the pessimism" (around global warming). So I thought it might be worth checking to see how Greig's chosen article fares nineteen years later.
Temperature prediction: Fail
One thing Thomas Gale Moore writes is that "Should the world warm -- and there is little evidence or theory to support such a prognostication ..."
Maybe Thomas hadn't seen any surface temperature charts back in 1995, though they were available back then (refer page 213 in Chapter 7 of the IPCC First Assessment Report). Anyway, this is what's happened to global surface temperatures:
 |
| Data Source: NASA |
In 1995 the global surface temperature was 0.33 above the 1951-1980 mean. Since then it's gone up around the same again - rising to 0.67 above the mean in 2010 and 2013 was 0.61C above the 1951-1980 mean. One "prediction" down.
Food price prediction: Fail
What else did Thomas get wrong? He mentioned food prices and cited a study by Kane et al (1991) (which I couldn't trace), which he said indicated "...a decline in commodity prices under moderate climate change conditions". Let's see what has happened to food prices with the climate change over the past nineteen years. Here is a chart of the Food Index from the FAO (click to enlarge).
Well, the food index in real terms is 50% higher than it was in 1995. Two "predictions" down.
Rainfall prediction: Fail
Another thing Thomas suggested was that in the USA, "the Southwest would likely become wetter and better for crops". Let's have a look at what's happening in the southwest portion of the USA according to the US Drought Monitor:
The southwestern USA is experiencing what could be the worst drought in 500 years. And the prognosis isn't crash hot, either.
That should be sufficient to demonstrate that Thomas Gale Moore, while he may be good at some things, has not got any skill in climate predictions.
Most of the rest of his article is yearning for the "good old days" when dinosaurs roamed the earth and other nostalgia in a similar vein. I can understand why Thomas feels comfortable with dinosaurs and other old fossils.
