Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Hottest November in Australia - during a La Niña!

 What can I say? This is climate change.

November mean temperature Australia
Figure 1 | November mean temperature anomaly Australia. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

We're in the midst of a La Niña so it's not meant to be hot like this, let alone the hottest November in the record. 

Okay, for the purists and deniers instead of saying this *is* climate change let me say this is *expected* with climate change. No, it's really not expected. It's just what's happening. 

How about this is *consistent with* climate change. Is it really? Is this really expected this year, in 2020, when emissions are lower because of the COVID-19 pandemic, when there's a La Niña? 

I must ask you, what the heck will be "consistent with" or "expected" for the rest of this decade?


  1. Two extracts from the BOM Blog.

    What La Niña means for Australia's severe weather season
    22 October 2020

    This summer, rain and increased humidity thanks to La Niña means we may face fewer extreme heat days across the country compared to recent years. However in some parts of southern Australia, while heatwaves may not reach the extreme temperatures of the past few years, they are likely to last longer and be more humid. Both of these increase heat stress, particularly for those most vulnerable, such as the elderly.
    what is a La Niña?
    Every La Niña is different, but typically we see:
    • increased rainfall across much of Australia
    • lower average daytime temperatures (south of the tropics)
    • higher average overnight temperatures (in the north)
    • a shift in temperature extremes
    • decreased frost risk
    • more tropical cyclones
    • earlier onset of the monsoon at Darwin.

    Now as can be seen in the second extract from the BOM Blog site daytime temp below the tropics is supposed to be cooler.

    With forecast temperature in Qld south of the Tropic of Capricorn to be 8 to 10 C above average, this part of the situation is abnormal I feel.
    Question what is going to be the daytime temp in NSW VIC and SA in Jan to Jeb?

    1. Thanks John. It might pay me to see what happened to Australian average temperatures during past ENSO events. I usually focus on global averages.

      I'm further south than you are and it's usually cooler and wetter here when there's a La Nina. (Which you'd know, of course, but readers from elsewhere might not.)

  2. EDIT.
    The temp forecast for this week south of the T of C.

    Feb not Jeb.

  3. It's great to see you again!

    What we can expect from climate change is unexpected extremes. When a system destabilizes, we can expect instability. We can confidently predict unpredictability.

    What is consistent with climate change is dramatic weather events and seasonal variation inconsistent with an unchanging climate.

    1. Thanks DC- I'll be slowly easing my way back over the coming weeks & months. This blog and blogger could be unpredictable too, until things settle down a bit :)

  4. Hi DC I expect a cyclone to hit my area and it will be bad as most of the old homes were built with nails and nothing to prevent them flying apart.

    We are overtime to cop a cyclone and I am afraid not a Cat3 but a Cat5 there is a huge difference.

    But that is ok I will expect the idiots who are elected to say this is just normal.
    Like the 8c to 10 c above normal temperature in some areas of south west qld is it??

  5. "Is this really expected this year, in 2020, when emissions are lower because of the COVID-19 pandemic, when there's a La Niña?"

    I thought I learned for sure that "If the carbon dioxide levels were to suddenly remain constant, the atmosphere would continue to warm" [1], so I'm amazed to find such a question here at Hotwhopper!

    But I'm a newbie at climate topics (and at reading in english too), so maybe I got something wrong.


    1: https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2018/06/04/co2warming/

    1. Hi Renato, it's all a matter of degree (and timing) :(

      As for warming if/when we stop adding CO2 to the air, that's a topic for another day (maybe). (There are differing notions about how that would pan out.)

  6. Just looked at GISTemp last night to see what the D-N temp was. +1.04, tied for hottest on record.


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