I'm not kidding. His headline was: "Celebrate: We’ve Finally Hit a Climate “Tipping Point”". He was writing about another new paper in Nature, written by a team led by Joeri Rogelj. The scientists looked at the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) made by countries around the world, which set out the proposals to limit emissions. What they found is described in the opening paragraph of the press release:
Pledges made for the Paris agreement on climate change last winter would lead to global temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1°C by the end of the century, according to a new analysis published in the journal Nature. In fact, the entire carbon budget for limiting warming to below 2°C might have been emitted by 2030, according to the study.What I found hard to understand was how Eric Worrall could write this:
The one degree or so of warming we have experienced has not made a noticeable difference to people’s lives, other than a slightly longer growing season, and less severe winters. Even if another 0.5C – 1C warming occurs, which is far from certain, there is no reason to think that the kind of temperature change you experience moving a few hundred feet up or down a hillside will make a major difference to people’s lives.
Here are a few of the headlines from around the world just from the last month or so. An incredible amount of water has been poured onto land the world over:
- Several dead and missing from floods in Texas and Kansas - CBS News 30 May 2016
- Amid deadly floods, Texas' Brazos River crests at record 54 feet - CBS News 31 May 2016
- Four dead after severe floods hit southern Germany - The Guardian 30 May 2016
- Heavy rain brings floods to northern France - BBC 31 May 2016
- 15 Photos Of Devastating Floods Show What The Future Of Europe Could Look Like - Huffington Post 1 June 2016
- Europe floods: First evacuation warning in flood-hit Paris suburbs as waters rise over 20ft - The Telegraph, 3 June 2016
- The Deadly Floods Sweeping Europe - High waters have already killed 10 and caused havoc in France, Germany, and Austria—and the emergency isn’t over yet. - CityLab, 2 June 2016
- Historic Floods Wash Out Parts Of Texas As Residents Brace For More Rain - Three major rainfall events in the region over the past six months have left more than a dozen people dead. - Huffington Post, 3 June 2016
- Two people are dead and five injured as violent storms and floods lash the east coast of Australia - Daily Mail, 4 June 2016
- Louisiana, Mississippi areas under flood watch as Texas floods spread - Reuters, 4 June 2016
- Central Europe's floods in pictures - BBC, 3 June 2016
- Stormageddon: Flood evacuation order as wild weather pummels Sydney - SMH, 5 June 2016
- Texas floods: 9 soldiers killed in Fort Hood accident - CNN 5 June 2016
- French Floods to Cost Hundreds of Millions of Euros - WSJ 6 June 2016
- Tasmania floods: Latrobe woman's body recovered, two still missing as evacuations continue - ABC, 7 June 2016
- Tropical Storm Colin forms in Gulf, speeds toward Florida - Star Tribune 5 June 2016
- FLOODY HELL: Motorist tells of 'idiocy' as car is swamped with 5 FEET of water in seconds - Express (London, UK), 8 June 2016
- Lightning strikes and flash floods cause chaos - Daily Mail (UK), 8 June 2016
- Children rescued as flash floods hit parts of UK - BBC, 8 June 2016
- Switzerland battered by heavy rains and floods - SwissInfo, 9 June 2016
- Tasmania picks up the pieces: Residents of the state's north-west clean up after their homes were devastated by the worst floods in 87 years - which caused at least $100milllion worth of damage - Daily Mail, 9 June 2016
- Paris floods made almost twice as likely by climate change, say scientists - The Guardian, 10 June 2016
- Floods displace thousands in southwest China - PressTV 12 June 2016
- Two killed in floods as Kanyakumari receives heavy rain - ZeeNews, 12 June 2016
- London weather: fresh warning of floods and heavy thunderstorms - Evening Standard, 12 June 2016
- Birmingham floods: Third school closure announced - Birmingham Mail, 15 June 2016
- China braces for more floods as torrential rains lash central and southern areas - South China Morning Post, 14 June 2016
- 10 dead in Ghana floods - News24, 15 June 2016
- Heavy rains cause floods in northeastern B.C., damaging roads, bridges - Vancouver Sun, 16 June 2016
- Floods in Southern China Kill 25, Displace Over 33,000 - ABCNews, 18 June 2016
- Landslides, Floods Kill 35 on Indonesia's Java Island - ABCNews, 19 June 2016
- Heavy floods hit parts of Bangkok - Bangkok Post, 21 June 2016
- Japan landslides, floods death toll rises to six - 7News, 22 June 2016
- Severe weather floods houses in Auckland - Stuff NZ, 22 June 2016
- PHOTOS: Travel grinds to a halt in London after 1 month's worth of rain falls on EU referendum polling day - Accuweather, 24 June 2016
- Worst floods in a century strike West Virginia - SMH, 26 June 2016
- 23 killed in West Virginia floods that swept preschooler away from grandfather’s reach - Washington Post, 24 June 2016
- Flooding death toll climbs in West Virginia - CBS News, 26 June 2016
- Flash floods hit Khon Kaen, Kalasin - Bangkok Post, 27 June 2016
- West Virginia floods devastate 1,200 homes, many lives - CNN 28 June 2016
- 7,500 flee from floods in North Cotabato - Inquirer, 29 June 2016
And that's just the damage from all the extra water being moved through the air. I could also have written about the disastrous wildfires these past few weeks.
If the above had been spread out over a decade or so, that would have been bad enough. However the above all happened in the last five weeks.
The floods in northeastern BC are the same rains that allowed the Fort McMurray fire to be contained months ahead of schedule.
ReplyDeleteThe floods in northeastern BC are the same rains that allowed the Fort McMurray fire to be contained months ahead of schedule.
ReplyDeleteAh, so it's all good then.
I had sarcasm and /sarcasm tags in there, but they were stripped. Should have anticipated that :-/
DeleteOh, wait, let's try this:
Delete<sarcasm>Ah, so it's all good then.</sarcasm>
Yay! It worked. Just try to defeat someone who has been programming computers since 1974. We will find a way to pwn you every time. Well... eventually :-)
Delete\ How? \ Attempt 1
Delete<> How? <> Attempt 2
<sarcasm> How? </sarcasm> Attempt 3
Got it!
Just go read the FORTRAN manual. It has everything!
Delete(Although, through weird circumstances, I learned APL at the same time.)
For the lolz:
Delete[ampersand + lt + ;] = < while [ampersand + gt + ;] = >
Just leave out the square brackets, plus signs, and the spaces between those characters and you wind up with 'less than' and 'greater than' symbols respectively.
So Eric has reached Denial Stage 3: after 1) It's not happening and 2) It's happening but we're not doing it, to 3) It's happening and we're doing it, but it's not that bad.
ReplyDeleteEach stage, of course, requires selective denial of evidence. Stage 1 is a rejection of all evidence entirely. Stage 2 is an acceptance of (at least some) observations, but rejection of the evidence of casual links and the physics behind them. Stage 3 is a rejection of discomforting events, i.e., I'm only going to look at the effects I like, and pretend the others don't exist. What storms? What droughts? What sea level? etc.
The denial just changes focus, and remains denial, since the intent is to not do anything about it.
Aw shucks Sou :-)
ReplyDelete"... there is no reason to think that the kind of temperature change you experience moving a few hundred feet up or down a hillside will make a major difference to people’s lives..."
DeleteExcept that doesn't really rise to the level of analogy, being stuck at the level of asinine misdirection in complete ignorance of the scientific case.
Shucks, Eric. You really are well exposed out on your hillside. Does WUWT offer you an protection?
... there is no reason to think that the kind of temperature change you experience moving a few hundred feet up or down a hillside will make a major difference to people’s lives.
ReplyDeleteExcept when you run out of hill, as is expected to happen to numerous species in Australia. Unfortunately most species aren't as mobile as humans.
I wonder how many WUWTians live in areas with cold winters, and think climate change will be beneficial for them, and couldn't care less about the rest of the world where it will be disastrous.
When wine grape growers run out of hill they move elsewhere, like to Tasmania (which they have).
Deletehttp://www.smh.com.au/business/climate-drives-big-wine-deal-20100816-1272s.html
When Tasmania gets too hot, they'll have to wait a few thousand years before moving to Antarctica.
Well, there's Macquarie Island...
DeleteLol, Bill. Even if it was possible to set up a wine-grape industry there ... Deniers wouldn't object. They are almost all against any and all natural habitats. However the other 90% of the world would surely protest :(
Deletehttps://www.environment.gov.au/heritage/places/world/macquarie-island
Or from France to England,as some have. This one has political consequences, since it now means leaving the Euroean Union.
DeleteSo today Eric Worrall 'knows better' than the World Health Organisation. Its baffling how the man has managed to avoid picking up any prestigious scientific awards for his genius.
ReplyDeleteOT, but assuming Antony Green is correct - usually a reasonable assumption - please to see McGowan holding Mirabella off; great result for Indi! Not at all pleased to see Pauline Hanson, however...
ReplyDeleteBeing from the Indi electorate I'm relieved. It would have been horrible to have Sophie Mirabella back. Hopefully she's gone for good this time.
Delete