Today he's promoting David "funny sunny" Archibald again, with his ice age comething predictions (archived here). He found a spot somewhere in the world where it's been a bit cold lately, and wrote an article with the headline: "A Prediction Coming True?"
David's prediction, you may recall is that an ice age is comething. Here's what he has said will happen by 2020 - a drop of 1.5 degrees from 2005:
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| Data sources: GISTemp and Archibald (2006) |
The chart above also shows what has happened since David's 2006 "prediction" - published in that august journal E&E - ha!. David's prediction is in yellow, the actual is in white. The year before his prediction was the hottest year on record at the time. In the eight years since his "prediction", 2010 then 2014 were the hottest years on record. Is he nuts to claim his prediction is "coming true"? What word would you use to describe his fantasy?
WUWT - a choice of warming or cooling
WUWT gives you lots of choices. If there's one thing that differentiates deniers from normal people, it's their lack of consistency. (There are lots of other things, too. Such as their lack of precision, lack of error bars, lack of data and code, lack of reality - Oh, you could go on and on...)
Who to believe? WUWT or WUWT? You can choose between David Archibald at WUWT or Fred Singer at WUWT. Here is Fred's Little Ice Age bounce prediction - that the bounce might go on for one or two hundred years:
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| Data sources: GISTemp and WUWT |
Or maybe you'll believe Fred Singer. So many choices at WUWT:
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| Data sources: GISTemp and WUWT |
It was cold in Maine last winter
Apparently Maine has been a bit cool these past four months. David found someone somewhere that reported this fact. He put up a chart of temperature from a town in the next door state to show what he meant:
Yep, his chart shows just how much hotter it's been getting in Hanover, New Hampshire!
That's not what David was saying though. He added a data point that he said was from Maine. No-one complained that David added his reported temperature in Maine to that of a chart of Hanover, New Hampshire. One person did complain that he based his prediction on four months, but I didn't see anyone specifically complain that he put up what he said was the temperature for winter months in one place, to a chart of annual average temperatures in another place. And no-one observed the distinct rise in temperature in Hanover, New Hampshire either. Blind and dumb, the lot of them.
Lickety-split - an ice age cometh!
Further down David wrote:
...The North Atlantic (60-0W, 30-65N) has been cooling for the last decade. The rate of cooling is just as fast as the rate of rise of the late 20th century. At that rate we will be back to Little Ice Age conditons lickety-split.Lickety-split? Here's a chart showing David's "cooling" area in the context of last year, the hottest year on record:
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| Source: NOAA - annotated by HotWhopper |
From the WUWT comments
lsvalgaard set the ball rolling with this droll comment:
May 4, 2015 at 2:07 pm
This article could be called Twilight of Reason.
carbon-based life form doesn't "get it" - oh dear!
May 4, 2015 at 3:33 pm
Leif, I know you don’t respect David’s opinions, but are you saying there is misinformation in this piece?
lsvalgaard attempts an explanation:
May 4, 2015 at 6:37 pm
You should read some of his earlier posts. It is all about New Hampshire. He throws in the North Atlantic as an afterthought, but it is not his main argument.
My comment does not further elaboration.
MarkW objects to Leif injecting a dose of reality into his utter nutter paradise:
May 4, 2015 at 4:14 pm
I have the same reaction every time I see you attack someone for daring to disagree with you.
Most of the comments are from Anthony Watts' conspiracy theorists, who think that all the scientists in the world have been faking global warming, and melting ice sheets, and acidifying oceans and droughts and heat waves and floods. And the media is also in on the hoax, as are farmers and polar bears ... in fact everyone is in on the hoax except for Anthony's conspiracy theorists who have sussed out the fake warming from the comfort of their WUWT-engaged keyboard. Scott, for example, after Nick Stokes has pointed WUWT-ers to all the raw data, asks:
May 4, 2015 at 6:25 pm
Can anyone comment if NOAA’s deception has a chance of being exposed by the GWPF study that will come out sometime in the (hopefully) near future?
Does anyone seriously take WUWT seriously? Apart from the weird and wacky, that is.
Related HotWhopper Articles
- David Archibald's Funny Sunny Prediction
- Will WUWT's David Archibald be right and severe cold hit Central England?
- David Archibald in a momentus denial of gravity at WUWT
- Applauding gratuitous violence as entertainment for the "justly righteous" at WUWT
- The World Domination Conspiracy Theory at WUWT
- Sack Australia's biggest laughing stock, Maurice Newman! His denier wackiness is resurrected at WUWT
Jesus Christ!
ReplyDeleteSo what did the little numpty say is causing this ice age - Climate Elves?
ReplyDeleteDavid claims "it's the sun"! Hence his nickname "funny sunny".
DeleteIt's worth mentioning that a Rahmstorf et al. paper recently pointed to that very same North Atlantic cool spot as evidence for the long-anticipated slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) consequent to AGW. Archibald couldn't possibly not know about the paper, yet there's no mention of it. None of the commenters picked up on it either.
ReplyDeleteSo the cool spot is due to the proximity of a melting block of ice called Greenland? An 'ice age' prediction due to melting ice - maybe Archibald should move into satire for a career.
DeleteArchibald could easily not know about Rahmstorf et al: he is an utter crackpot from a parallel reality. He is either bone lazy, or thinks his laughable 'papers' really do offer adequate support for his findings. Either option does not give one much hope for his sanity.
DeleteJaw dropping. The fact that wuwters are prepared to defend such nonsense says pretty much everything.
ReplyDeleteAs bafflingly clueless as are Archibald and his WUWTian friends, one has to remember that the Australian government is peopled by folk of this same extreme level of ignorance, delusion, and bias. And/or psychopathy.
ReplyDeleteWe can laugh at the WUWT fiasco until we realise that the same sort of clowns are at the helm of our country, and are responsible for much of the current delay manifesting across the planet.
There are not enough facepalms.
The Archibald post is a joke, but for some amusement, follow the first link and check out the post it's based on, by Mike Brakey at No Tricks Zone.
ReplyDeleteHe calculates the change in temperature as a percentage of its fahrenheit value -- for example, if the temperature was 40 F and it decreases by 4 F, it's a 10% drop.
If he'd been smart, he would have listed all his numbers in celsius; the percentages would be bigger.
No word on what percentage Brakey would calculate if the temperature started out at 0 and increased or decreased by a degree.
What I'm wondering, though, is how NOAA knew in 2013 what the mean annual temperature would be in 2014 (see Brakey's Figure 1). That sure seems like ironclad proof that NOAA is faking their data... :-)
Oh boy! That's both funny and sad.
DeleteUsing the Brakey method, if the temperature started out at -2 F, and then rose to 0 F, it actually cooled by 100%.
DeleteNote, please, that Mike Brakey is described as "engineering physicist and energy expert".
Pierre Gosselin who owns notrickzone, made a prediction back in 2008. He predicted that global surface temperature anomaly would drop to minus 2.5C by 2020. That's a degree colder than David "funny sunny" Archibald's prediction. (Bob Tisdale, who complains endlessly because climate models aren't weather forecasts, predicted that the world was in for "50 to 60 years" of cooling, "counteracting most if not all of the warming over the last 60 years" - to 2008.)
DeleteMaybe it's time I did another review of denier's failed predictions.
Well I'd love to see that. Let me thank you again for all your efforts, Sou. They're very much appreciated.
DeleteI second the interest in another review of denier failed predictions
DeleteMay I make a request for denier predictions that proved true? If there are any,,,
Delete" Is he nuts to claim his prediction is "coming true"? What word would you use to describe his fantasy?"
ReplyDeleteMalice.
There is no innocence in climate revisionism.
Hi Sou
ReplyDeleteTyped a long comment on the portents for a significant El Nino - but lost it. Oh well. Here is the abbreviated version.
The SST's are warming up - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sst_weekly.gif
The subsurface is dramatically warm - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif
A strong westerly wind burst is going to drive the anomaly further west and to the surface - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.png
Model are forecasting serious warming - http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=plumes
If (and it is always an IF with long range El Nino forecasts) this comes to fruition I wouldn't want to be on the cooling side of the climate “discussion”.
George
Probably this will just give the "cooling side" a new starting point for their "not warming in x years!"
ReplyDeleteSou
ReplyDeleteI'd expect the BoM will come out next Tuesday with a very definitive statement. Interesting story from "The Coversation" perhaps supports this ..
https://theconversation.com/will-last-years-predicted-el-nino-happen-this-year-40839
Thanks, George. The charts you posted earlier are suggestive, aren't they. It will be interesting to see whether it will be a full blown event or another fizzer.
DeleteHi Sou
DeleteI'm unsure of the provenance of some of the observations in the article below - and it would be wise not to infer any direct link between these occurrences and general climate change impacts - but I'm constantly surprised how interlinked and complex the interaction is between climate and flora/fauna in our natural environment.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/04/30/1380954/-Super-El-Nino-Likely-as-Huge-Warm-Water-Wave-Hits-West-Coast-Extreme-Marine-Die-Off-Developing
Thanks, George. Many people around here have been talking about the lack of rain. My mother said that they'd just had the driest stretch on record where she lives (and no, I didn't bring up the subject). So that is suggestive of an El Nino - though where I live in the next valley, we've had our share these past few weeks.
DeleteSo I won't be surprised if there's a big El Nino event. Nor will I be surprised if there's not - the Pacific seems to have a mind of its own these days - so hard to tell what will happen. Predictions aren't easy even with knowledge of the past. With unprecedented climate change - and with it happening so fast (geologically speaking) - they seem to be getting harder.