BoM maintains an El Niño alert

Today the Australian Bureau of Meteorology released its fortnightly ENSO wrap up. It is still calling an "alert" but not a declared El Niño. You can read the details below, and on the HW sidebar and here at BoM (with the pdf for the record).

The Bureau has also made a YouTube video for the general public. Here it is - it's tailored for Australia:

Here is the latest ENSO overview from BoM:

Tropical Pacific Ocean close to El Niño thresholds
Issued on 16 December 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds, with a number of countries around the Pacific Ocean basin and further afield showing some El Niño-like impacts in recent months.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains warm, with surface temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Typically, after the ocean has exceeded thresholds for an extended period, an El Niño is considered to be underway. However some atmospheric indicators, such as the trade winds, cloudiness and tropical rainfall, have not shown sustained and widespread patterns consistent with El Niño. The Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained negative for several months, has recently eased back from El Niño thresholds; this is likely to be a weather related short-term fluctuation in the index.

The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months. Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer is likely for many.

All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate little change is likely in the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks and months, with ocean temperatures forecast to either remain close to, or just above, El Niño thresholds. If the atmosphere does start to reinforce the ocean, models suggest the resulting El Niño would most likely be weak or moderate at most.

Here's the sub-sea temperature comparing past months to the most recent:

Source: BoM