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Friday, December 20, 2013

Denier weirdness: Russian steam pipes are causing global warming, sez Anthony Watts @wattsupwiththat

Sou | 1:13 PM Go to the first of 30 comments. Add a comment

Shades of "Airport UHI Disease".

Today Anthony Watts muses whether one reason this November was the hottest in the instrumental record is because of Russian steam pipes!

Here's the global temperature anomaly according to NASA GISTemp:

Data source: NASA


Here's a chart of the global temperature anomaly for November 2013:

Source: NOAA

In an article protesting the record warm November, Anthony wrote (archived here):
Addendum: I have been wondering about that Russian red spot for 5 years. I’ve seen this red spot come and go in Russia, and I don’t know what the reason is.
I do know this: neither I nor NOAA has a good handle on the siting characteristics of Russian weather stations. I do know one thing though, the central heating schemes for many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from un-insulated steam pipes
...and he proceeded to post a lot of photos of steam pipes in Russian cities.

I guess the Russians only turn on their steam pipes in hot Novembers, not cooler Novembers like last year?

Source: NOAA Nov 2013 and Nov 2012

It looks as if they turn on the steam pipes in outback Australia when it's a cold November worldwide.  This year Alaska (and south west USA) turned on the steam pipes but last November they neglected to turn them on in Alaska.  They didn't turn them on in north east North America this year, either - I bet they were wishing they were in northern Russia last month, where they could warm themselves up with the steam pipes!



Here's more PROOF that the steam pipes are only turned on in hot Novembers:

Source: NOAA Nov 2011 and Nov 2010

Once again, when it's a colder November worldwide, they turn on the steam pipes in Australia - but in different parts of the country.  In northern Canada they are quite inconsistent about turning on the steam pipes.

Here's an animation with a map of world population distribution together with the global surface temperature anomaly for November this year.  Those Russians are dreadfully inefficient piping all the steam into unpopulated areas of the country, aren't they.

Sources: NOAA and Maps.com








Kenji, the scientific dog, is probably feeling rather embarrassed again.







Remember when Anthony decided that China was getting hotter because of UHI disease?  Trouble was that the warm anomalies were greatest in parts where almost no-one lived!



From the WUWT comments

Comments are archived here with the WUWT article.


Justin Hoffer thinks there shouldn't be any anomalous anomalies and decides it must be the Russian military equipment messing with the data says:
December 19, 2013 at 1:11 pm
I should clarify that I mean it could be caused by someone messing with the satellite data in some way, or Russian military equipment possible messing with the satellite data. As is, the very existence of an anomaly like that seems rather odd to me.

vukcevic says b..b..but it was cooler in central England this November:
December 19, 2013 at 3:24 pm
Most of ordinary people are concerned about and judge global warming by events in their area; in Central England both maximum and minimum daily temperatures this November were lower than in 2012

jmorpuss is an ordinary nutter and says:
December 19, 2013 at 3:55 pm
Google giant Tesla coils found in Russia . Once found you will ask what the ****? What are they used for? I don’t think their water slides lol.


mike g is a climate conspiracy nutter and says:
December 19, 2013 at 4:19 pm
If the conspicuous and suspicious temperature anomaly over Russia was a cold anomaly, mainstream science would have corrected it. There is enough information in this post and others on here over the years for any reasonable individual to see the data is suspect and has been for years. Yet, it is accepted without question by warmists.


Thursday, December 19, 2013

Bob Tisdale misses a hot November opportunity @wattsupwiththat

Sou | 1:07 AM Go to the first of 15 comments. Add a comment

Bob Tisdale has missed a hot opportunity.  He's put up another article at WUWT with lots of charts and lots of words about November global temperatures (archived here).

He missed the biggest news of all.  November was the hottest November on record!

Data source: NASA

Now I wonder why Perennially Puzzled Bob Tisdale refused to tell his readers that fact.

Not really.  It's probably the same reason he tells fibs like "surface temperatures never have agreed with climate models." No?

Data Sources: NASA and Climate Explorer 

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Anthony Watts @wattsupwiththat must thank his lucky stars that Brandon Shollenberger is a science denier

Sou | 10:36 PM Go to the first of 11 comments. Add a comment

Update: See below for typical denier double standards. Brandon Shollenberger says his own misquoting is merely "awkward" and "embarrassing" and "understandable" whereas he calls John Cook's "mind-boggling" and "fabricated".



I expect everyone who visits WUWT today, except the utter nutters, will be bemused by what they read.

Today at WUWT, Anthony Watts allows Brandon Shollenberger to post an obsessive pedantic and vitriolic venting of spleen at John Cook of skepticalscience.com - over nothing at all as it turns out - archived here.  I bet Anthony is thanking his lucky stars that Brandon is one of the bad guys like him and isn't an editor at HotWhopper:)


How Brandon Shollenberger gets a quote wrong while accusing John Cook of doing the same


The gist of Brandon's wailing and gnashing of teeth is that John Cook had these words in a small box in a diagram of one of his papers, attributing it to Western Fuels Association as guiding their $510,000 climate science obfuscation campaign:
"reposition fact as theory"
Which Brandon himself messes up and misquotes, writing:
“This quote is apparently a bastardization of an actual quote which suggested people "reposition global warming as theory (rather than fact).” ”
Would you believe it.  For all his ranting and raving about "mind-boggling" and "fabrication" and "bastardization" - Brandon himself has bastardised the actual quote, which in the actual source document, as presented by Naomi Oreskes, the words were:
1. Reposition global warming as theory (not fact). 

Here is what I understand to be the original document in context.

Source: Naomi Oreskes' Presentation



Here is the source of the above, which is on the left hand side of Naomi Oreskes' MS PowerPoint slide below. Click the image to enlarge it.

Source: Naomi Oreskes' PowerPoint Presentation

 Here's the diagram from John Cook's paper, which Brandon is mindlessly obsessing over:



Yes, you have to look hard to find the bit that so enraged Brandon Shollenberger.  Its on the left hand side second from the bottom just above the mention of the faked Oregon Petition and just below the mention of the deniers' false SEPP statement.  If it didn't have quotation marks, Brandon would have nothing to complain about.  What an obsessive Brandon must be.  Poring over every word ever written by John and some John didn't write himself.  Picking each phrase to pieces and cross-checking.

The diagram is Figure 2 in a three page paper entitled "Combating a two-decade campaign attacking the scientific consensus on climate change".

Brandon finds John Cook's misquote "mind-boggling".  I find Brandon's over-reaction mind-boggling.  Brandon has put his own spin on his own misquote.  He reckons what Western Fuels Association meant was:
And this isn’t a trivial matter like Cook claimed his last misquotation was. The difference between the quotes is enormous. Many people don’t believe global warming is a fact (by definition, it isn’t one). If they’re right, repositioning global warming as a theory rather than fact is a good thing because its true. Even if one doesn’t agree with those people, their behavior is still honest and well-intentioned.
John Cook’s quote requires the opposite. A person cannot seek to “reposition fact as theory” without seeking to intentionally mislead people. That means Cook accuses those people of being lying bastards by making **** up.

Well, as you can see, Western Fuels Association can chalk up at least one success from their disinformation campaign :) (Does Brandon really think it's possible that the world isn't warming?)

Brandon's entitled to his interpretation but neither his interpretation, nor his over-reaction make me think Brandon is "honest or well-intentioned".  The fact that Brandon himself misquoted the line doesn't give me any confidence either.

Naomi Oreskes interprets the line differently, based on her power point slide (see above), which puts it into some context. I'm with her when she interpreted it as intending that global warming be downplayed as "just a theory".  Take particular note of the word "reposition".  In other words, the campaign recognises it as fact but their PR strategy is to "reposition" it in the mind of the general public, to shift the perception away from "global warming is real and happening now" to that of being a "theory".  Most people don't understand that a scientific theory is as good as fact.  I find John's misquote a lot closer to that interpretation than Brandon's interpretation of Brandon's misquote. (I hope you're following all that.  I don't blame you if you're getting tangled in quotes, misquotes and meanings :D)


Added for clarification for people like Brandon Shollenberger, who thinks global warming is "just a theory". You can nitpick and say that RSS and UAH aren't completely global and aren't strictly comparable to GISTemp and HadCRUT, but you've got to admit, all the data series - all surface and lower tropospheric temperatures, they all show the globe is warming. [Sou: 8:02 am 19 Dec 2013 AEDST]

Data Sources: NASA, RSS, Hadley Centre, UAH



There's more misplaced vitriol from Brandon


What else is Brandon obsessing over?  Well, he's really got his knickers in a twist. So much so that some of his links are broken.  As far as I can tell, he's foaming at the mouth because John Cook, in a short article on a website, quoted John Howard.  John Cook wrote:
Last week, former Australian Prime Minister John Howard gave a speech on climate change for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a conservative think-tank opposed to policies that mitigate climate change. Howard characterised scientists who accept the evidence that humans are disrupting climate as “religious zealots”. Consequently, he is not so convinced of the scientific evidence. On what does he base his views? Howard states that “…I instinctively feel that some of the claims are exaggerated.”
Brandon wasn't happy.  He was most upset that John didn't link to the source of the last quote in the paragraph.   The bit where John Howard said: "...I instinctively feel that some of the claims are exaggerated".

Brandon went further than that.  He has accused John Cook of "of lying about evidence....and fabricating a quote".  This is after John Cook responded to a query from Brandon in the comments to that very same article, linking to the source of his quote in The Australian - which I've archived here.  Here is the quote in context:
"I've always been agnostic about it (climate change)," Mr Howard told reporters in London before his address.
"I don't completely dismiss the more dire warnings but I instinctively feel that some of the claims are exaggerated.
"I don't accept all of the alarmist conclusions."

But Brandon is like a denier with a bone to pick.  He doesn't care for explanations or rectification.  He insists that John Cook is making "fabrications".  He's not.

Sheesh.  John Cook may be human after all and not always dot all his i's and cross all his t's when he's blogging.  He might even miss verifying the exact words of a quote in a diagram someone else made for him. Nevertheless, he doesn't make a habit of making stuff up.  His quote was real.  John Cook didn't claim the quote was from the speech itself, he provided it as evidence of what Howard bases his view upon.  Something John Howard said immediately before making his silly speech to the silly disinformation lobby group, the GWPF.

The fact is that while he didn't put a link to the Australian in the blog article, or if he did it fell off when climasphere.org posted it, John Cook was quick to provide it when Brandon asked about it.  Was Brandon polite and appreciative? Not on your nelly. Brandon wrote about another quote that got him riled up:
To this day, that fabricated quote remains in the piece. John cook has made no indication he thinks it needs to be changed (though he has fixed the quote elsewhere). 
Brandon is telling fibs.  In fact, John Cook replied to Brandon explaining that he did change the quote where he was able to do so but that he isn't able to edit the climasphere blog article:
Finally, I have made one change to the version of the article hosted at skepticalscience.com (that I have the ability to edit, unlike this blog) 

John's polite reply is still there for all the world to see what sort of a drongo Brandon Shollenberger is.  In fact I've archived the blog and comments for posterity.  It shows remarkable restraint on the part of John Cook, plus the fact that while he didn't have access to the climasphere post, he did amend the skepticalscience.com version of his article in line with Brandon's nit-pickery - or the part that made sense at any rate.

But that's not good enough for Brandon Shollenberger.  Brandon has his own private vendetta against John Cook.  Vendetta is not quite the right word, because a vendetta implies that John Cook did something to Brandon and as far as I'm aware, John Cook has never done Brandon any harm.  That doesn't stop an obsessive denier who doesn't need any excuse to rant and rave at imagined wrong-doings.  Brandon ventures further into la la land than does your typical denier.


I know what you're thinking :)


Now I bet you are thinking along the lines I was, when I read Brandon's "mind-boggling" hyperbole and false accusations.

You'll be asking:
  • Why does Brandon Shollenberger focus on (mis)correcting that snippet in the diagram above, when there are much more glaring issues in the article that are worthy of comment.  Even in the diagram there are more glaring issues, like the fake Oregon Petition.  Why isn't Brandon Shollenberger foaming at the mouth in protest at someone "fabricating" a petition - deliberately setting out to deceive people that it came from the National Academy of Sciences.  Why isn't Brandon Shollenberger up in arms at all the disinformation in the NIPCC "report"
  • Why does Brandon Shollenberger go bananas because a quote in a blog article didn't have a link to the source, even though John Cook provided the link as soon as he was asked for it?  Why instead isn't he doing something as a result of what John Cook wrote about.  Why isn't Brandon Shollenberger urging everyone to write to ex-PM Howard telling him to read science?  Why isn't Brandon Shollenberger strongly criticising Tony Abbott and John Howard for misleading the Australian public about global warming?  Why isn't he irate at the government for absconding their responsibilities to Australians and the world at large, and steering Australia towards a four degree plus future?
  • Why does Brandon Shollenberger nitpick and misrepresent John Cook and not rant and rave at all the misleading articles, the pseudo-science and disinformation peddled at anti-science websites like WUWT?  

Well, I won't claim to understand disturbed minds.  I don't believe there is any rational explanation. However he could be encouraged by the reaction of some WUWT readers, although it's a tepid reaction overall to a WUWT rant. Especially for a rant directed at John Cook, who deniers love to hate.  I guess it'll heat up when North Americans wake up. (Archived here.)


gopal panicker says:
December 18, 2013 at 12:13 am
best way to deal with Cook is to ignore him…..very few people read his blog


Henry Galt. who is convinced that all the science is wrong and all the world is conspiring against him or some such nonsense and says:
December 18, 2013 at 2:45 am
Must agree with Brandon and most comments so far (esp CtM).
This very much needs to be done because the web is polluted beyond imagining by links to the SS idiots and their idiocy. Quoted by every activist, deluded dramagreen and vested interest as gospel. 
“It’s on SS … it must be true … those guys wouldn’t lie to us … would they?”
It appears they have and do. They will continue to do so for many non-scientific, psychological reasons.


PS Why the asterisks in the headline?


Does anyone know why Brandon wrote the headline as:
"Skeptical Science’s John Cook – Making **** Up" 
...which I took to mean "Skeptical Science’s John Cook – Making Stuff Up"? although it's missing an asterisk.  Brandon explains it as:
David, UK, I did that because I don’t feel comfortable cursing. When I use that phrase out loud, I censor the word as well. (December 18, 2013 at 12:28 am)

If he means "stuff" is a curse then he's really nuts.  Stuff is a perfectly acceptable word in that context.  It's a synonym for "things" or "matter" or "substance".

If he is hiding the F-word then it doesn't make sense.  It's got the right number of asterisks but the word usage is wrong.  At least it's not in any context I've ever heard it. I've heard of "F*** all", but not "making f*** up".  I'd have thought he would have had to write something like  "Skeptical Science’s John Cook – Making a **** Up", adding an "a".  Or maybe "Skeptical Science’s John Cook – ****s Up".

Am I missing something?  Maybe it's another swear word that I'm too ladylike to have ever heard?  It's possible I guess, but I doubt it.  Or maybe it's a common expression in some countries or social circles unfamiliar to me.


Update


1. Apparently **** means shit.  Well, no shit! Isn't Brandon quaint.

2. Brandon may have come here already.  He maintains that his misquote is merely "awkward" and "embarrassing" and "understandable", whereas John Cook's misquote is "mind-boggling" and "fabrication".  See the comments below that point out that when Anthony Watts misquotes it's called "acceptable paraphrasing" even though Anthony changed the meaning in his misquote. John Cook didn't.  Brandon Shollenberger invented his own unique and wrong meaning to his quote and his misquote and it's perfectly fine or merely awkward and embarassing.  Deniers are nothing if not inconsistent.  From Brandon:

Brandon Shollenberger says:
December 18, 2013 at 7:12 am
Welp, this is awkward. It turns out while criticizing Cook for getting the quotation wrong, I got it wrong too. The parenthetical should say “not fact” instead of “rather than fact.” A little time with Google shows this is a common mistake, and it’s even made in Al Gore’s, An Inconvenient Truth. I saw the phrasing I used on Wikipedia (which has had that phrasing for six years), used Google to search for it, found dozens of sources using it (including Al Gore’s), and copied and pasted.
This doesn’t change anything I said, and it is certainly understandable how I made the mistake. Still, it’s embarrassing.

3. At WUWT, Izen points out that to say global warming is a theory not a fact shows complete blindness to all the world's temperature records. Well, that's par for the course with some deniers.

4. Click here for the latest updated archive of the WUWT article and comments.

Sou 7:10 am Thursday 19 December 2013 (AEDST)


Update:

Almost six weeks have elapsed and misguided Brandon Shollengberger is still stewing over this.  Given his obsession over a couple of misplaced quotation marks (though the meaning was intact), how the hell he copes with all the mistakes in the daily newspaper or the zillions of misquotes and fabrications at WUWT and Bishop Hill and every other denier blog we may never know.  They don't seem to bother him in the slightest, which suggests, maybe, a pathology? Sou 30 January 2014.

Denier-Speak: There is no differentiating Anthony Watts "claims" @wattsupwiththat

Sou | 7:32 PM One comment so far. Add a comment

Yesterday Anthony Watts posted a stupid article by a couple of climate cranks, arguing that "it's the sun" and trying to dispute the fact that rising CO2 is causing earth to warm.

Claim at WUWT: An Ice Age Cometh!


The article predicts that "the temperature will decrease until 2100 to a value like the one of the last “little ice age” 1870."

Anthony's headline has the word "claim" at the front, which would usually be a signal to mock.  In this case it was to signify he doesn't know whether to believe it or not.  Here's the headline and a link to the archived article at WUWT:

Claim: Solar, AMO, & PDO cycles combined reproduce the global climate of the past

And Anthony's comment, showing that his readers have his permission to accept that an ice age cometh if they want to, because he dug up papers that he reckons means there is something to the silly nonsense. (AMO and PDO do oscillate as the names indicate, but there is no ice age cometh-ing!).  Anthony wrote:
Note: By publishing this, I offer it for discussion and consideration, I don’t explicitly endorse its methodology or conclusion as I have seen a number of curve fitting and cyclical exercises before that are able to extract cycles and then hindcast fit those cycles.  This may be one of those instances, so I urge caution in consideration of the claim. On the plus side, I did find this Nature SR article that shows a 208 year cycle (Seuss cycle) in Indian Monsoon data., and of course we know that there is a 65 year cycle in the AMO as outlined here. - Anthony

Not good enough, Anthony.  At best this shows he doesn't have a clue about science.  It also shows he is in the disinformation business and thinks he has to post a certain amount of pseudo-science in among his attempts to mock actual science, just to keep his denier fans amused.


Normal WUWT "Claims"


Just so you can see the sort of articles he usually reserves for the "Claim:" category, here are a few of his previous "claim" headlines, together with links to the archived article:

Claim: Climate change is 10x faster than ever before.  Anthony copies a press release about the Stanford study by Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Christopher B. Field that I've mentioned a few times.  Anthony doesn't want to believe the science and tells his readers to deride it, writing:
From Stanford University  comes this breathless missive that sounds just like every one we’ve heard before. No mention of “the pause”, but we do have a “baked into the system” goodness apparently.

Claim: LLNL scientists find precipitation, global warming link. Here Anthony copies a press release about a paper in PNAS which shows what is expected is what is observed. Anthony makes no comment of his own.  His "claim" headline is sufficient signal to his band of scientific illiterati to mock the science.


Claim: atmosphere heats the oceans, melts Antarctic ice shelf.  This article is a press release about a Science paper by TP Stanton et al, describing mechanisms of the rapid melting of Pine Island Glacier.  Again, Anthony doesn't bother to write any comment.  His "claim" in the headline is enough of a signal to his readers to scoff at science again.

And a whole heap more if you want them - and don't mind adding to the WUWT hit count.


Usually Anthony reserves his dogwhistle word, "claim", for actual science, not silly articles rejecting the greenhouse effect. He might be feeling a bit sensitive about his reputation as an ignorant know-nothing at best and as a climate disinformer by those who are more familiar with his antics at WUWT.  Not so sensitive that he'll stop posting pseudo-science to keep his band of scientific illiterati happy and feeling well fed.

List of scientists "respected in their field" - only @wattsupwiththat - take on the EPA

Sou | 10:06 AM Go to the first of 13 comments. Add a comment

This made me laugh.  Anthony Watts is all excited because a bunch of clowns have filed a brief supporting a whole mob of litigants to the US Supreme Court, who want to stop the EPA from regulating CO2 emissions.  This isn't the first time and probably won't be the last.

What caught my eye was this mob that Anthony Watts is promoting (archived here) are trying to pass themselves off as:
...highly regarded scientists and economists [who] have expertise in a wide array of fields implicated by this rulemaking, including climate research, weather modeling, physics, geology, statistical analysis, engineering, and economics. One or more of these scientists and economists has the relevant expertise to support every statement made in this brief. These scientists and economists all have publications in peer reviewed journals and are respected in their fields of expertise by their peers.

Look at the list, six of them have already graced the pages of HotWhopper, some several times.  I guess you could call that regarded, though not at all highly.  The list is below.  It reads like an excerpt from who's who of the extreme right wing of the denial machine.


EPA Endangerment Finding


What this motley lot are trying to argue in their writ is that greenhouse gases don't cause the greenhouse effect.  And they claim to be "respected"!  They take issue with the Endangerment Finding of the EPA and try to refute the lines of evidence described on page 66518 of the Rules and Regulations:
The attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic activities is based on multiple lines of evidence. The first line of evidence arises from our basic physical understanding of the effects of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, natural factors, and other human impacts on the climate system. The second line of evidence arises from indirect, historical estimates of past climate changes that suggest that the changes in global surface temperature over the last several decades are unusual. The third line of evidence arises from the use of computer-based climate models to simulate the likely patterns of response of the climate system to different forcing mechanisms (both natural and anthropogenic).

The tropospheric hotspot is a feature of warming from any forcing


First these fake sceptics go on and on about the tropospheric hot spot, which they wrongly characterise as evidence of greenhouse gas warming.  (It's not.  It's a feature of warming from any forcing, not just greenhouse gases, as explained at SkepticalScience and by Bart Verheggen).  Who knows why they pick on that and ignore the expanding oceans, the melting ice and all the other signs of global warming.  It's a strange point with which to lead off their argument.


Earth is heating up


Then they do make a switch to discussing surface temperature, arguing that because not everywhere on earth has heated up at the same rate it's not global warming.  Did I say they are nutters?  They get quite cheeky when they claim:
These data thus demonstrate that EPA’s second line of evidence—the claim that there has been unusual warming on a global, that is, worldwide, basis over the past several decades—is invalid.

Let's see about that:

Data sources: NASA GISTempNODC/NOAA Ocean HeatU Colorado sea levelPIOMAS Arctic Ice



Observations are not inconsistent with climate model projections


They also try to argue that the models are "wrong".  In their writ they include a very weird chart describing it as:
Figure 5 contrasts the forecasts through 2025 with the actual trend line of global average surface temperature (GAST) data from the Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (CRU) for 2000-2012 (identified as “HadCRUT4 Trend/Forecast” on the chart).:

Data source: the writ from the not respected


HadCRUT4 is observations not a forecast.  Maybe they meant with HadGEM or HadCM, in which case they couldn't argue that observations are out of kilter.  Either that or they are arguing that they've made observations of the future three years and this future they've already observed doesn't match their version of climate models.

Thing is, observations are within the range of modeled climate projections:

Source: IPCC AR5 WG1

Here is a chart of a CMIP3 model run, showing that periods of hiatus do show up in some runs - from realclimate.org.

Source: realclimate.org


CO2 is a waste by-product of burning fossil fuels


This mob surely can't be serious when they claim that CO2 isn't an "unwanted by-product" by arguing that it is indeed a waste by-product.  They make it sound as if they want to add CO2 to the atmosphere:
CO2 is not in any sense an unwanted by-product of the production of useful energy. Rather, the combustion of carbon based fuels to produce CO2, and the capture of the energy released by that process, is the whole idea....

And they can't do their case any good by arguing that 82% of energy production still emits CO2!
While a modest portion of energy production in the United States (and other countries in general) comes from non-carbon sources (nuclear, wind, solar, hydro), the proportion that comes from fossil fuels in the U.S. is approximately 82 percent (sic).

From the WUWT comments

Not too many fake sceptics at WUWT are as excited as Anthony Watts about this silly writ.  (Archived here.)

Bloke down the pub says:
December 17, 2013 at 9:49 am
They won’t be allowed to win that.


GoneWithTheWind says:
December 17, 2013 at 9:49 am
I wish them luck but I have no faith in the Supreme court as it is now staffed.

LT confusingly or confusedly calls for more regulation, not less:
December 17, 2013 at 9:55 am
That is good news, the EPA is a burden to society they need tighter regulations placed on them than even a BP refinery.

AleaJactaEst says:
December 17, 2013 at 10:02 am
pi**ing in the wind, snowball in Hell’s, US winning the World Cup, not a prayer, the Arctic will be ice free in our lifetime. You get the message about how much chance this has of succeeding.


NeedleFactory says:
December 17, 2013 at 10:03 am
SCOTUS accepts for hearing only about 5% of the requests for Writ of Certiorari.
Don’t get your hopes up.

pokerguy says:
December 17, 2013 at 10:35 am
“snowballs chance etc.”
Negative defeatists many of you. There are people out there fighting your battles. What are you guys doing, except whining?

Roger Sowell puts the writ in perspective and says:
December 17, 2013 at 1:05 pm
This is one of at least eight briefs filed in this case. This amicus brief is only advisory to the Court. The Court will consider the question or questions raised in the petitioners’ briefs.
More later, hopefully tonight 12-17-13.

4 degree limit on plants and how Anthony Watts is an ignoramus when it comes to CO2

Sou | 5:03 AM Go to the first of 17 comments. Add a comment

As readers of HotWhopper know by now, Anthony Watts peddles disinformation.  He's scatty about it. He'll put up contradictory articles without batting an eyelid.  There is no rhyme or reason to the various bits of pseudo-science he promotes.   It ranges from "OMG it's insects" to "a massive ice age cometh" by 2020.


Up to 33% of the extra CO2 will stay in the air for a thousand years...


Today Anthony Watts claims (archived here):
One has to wonder though, since CO2 residence time has been said to be anywhere from  five year to hundreds, or even thousands of years, with no solid agreement yet, how they can be so sure of themselves?
He's wrong (again), of course.  There is a reasonable understanding of how long CO2 stays in the air at least in human time frames.  It might not be all that precise because it can't be all that easy to predict how the plants and oceans will respond, given the rapidity of the changes we're subjecting them to.  There's no precedent.

Anthony is too lazy to read the science or else he's deliberately peddling lies.  Or maybe it's just another example of how he doesn't have a clue. On par with his confusion over temperature anomalies and baselines.

He's wrong on his numbers, most definitely.  There is no suggestion that CO2 only stays in the atmosphere for five years.  And his "thousands of years" could be "hundreds of thousands of years".  According to David Archer's 2005 research, a lot of CO2 would drop out in the first few decades if we stopped adding any at all.  After 300 years it would have flattened out with somewhere between 17% and 33% of what we've added staying in the air for a thousand years.  After 100,000 years there would still be about 7% of the added CO2 in the air.


Anthony Watts posts a ludicrous chart


Have a gander at this silly chart that Anthony put up.  Click to enlarge it as always.

Source: WUWT of course. Where else would you find such a dumb chart!

Notice the age of the papers in the chart?  The chart is all wrong even with the old papers.  I checked out the Keeling and Bacestow paper (which, interestingly, says a lot about CFCs and the destruction of ozone).  Needless to say, it doesn't say that CO2 can all drop out of the air in less than 10 years.  In fact, here are some quotes (my bold italics):
As discussed below, the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere is likely to vary considerably over the next several hundred years. This time is too short for the atmosphere and ocean to attain equilibrium either with respect to climate or chemical processes....
... The present discussion principally emphasizes that the world’s oceans cannot be expected to remove a major fraction of the industrial CO2 from the air for a long time in comparison with the lifetime of human institutions. Although other mechanisms of CO2 withdrawal may exist, it is probably prudent to expect the concentration of atmospheric CO2 to persist above twice the preindustrial level for at least several centuries.

And I also checked his "100 years" from IPCC AR4.  Anthony Watts is wrong again.  Here is a quote:
 While more than half of the CO2 emitted is currently removed from the atmosphere within a century, some fraction (about 20%) of emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere for many millennia. 

Do the sums


By my calculations by our actions we've added more than 900 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide to the air in only 150 years or so.

What Anthony Watts is claiming is that "someone said" that if we stopped adding CO2 to the air tomorrow, all that we've added could all be absorbed by the land and oceans in five years. All 900 billion tonnes of it.  That represents about 255 billion tonnes of carbon.  All being absorbed by plants and oceans in five years.

Think about that.  The total mass of biomass, minus bacteria, is estimated at 560 billion tonnes.  So far, plants have taken up about 25% of all the extra carbon we've dug up and thrown away.  That's about 141 billion tonnes. Another 30% or around 170 billion tonnes has been absorbed by the oceans.  It's unimaginable that plants could absorb, say, another 116 billion tonnes in only five years. Biology wouldn't allow it. Just as it's unimaginable that the waters of the world could absorb 140 billion tonnes of carbon in only five years.  Physics wouldn't allow it.

The net flux into the ocean in 2000 was estimated at around 2 billion tonnes of carbon a year.  For the  oceans to absorb 140 billion tonnes in five years, that would be 28 billion tonnes a year or a fourteen fold increase.  If we stopped adding CO2 to the air, each year the partial pressure of CO2 in the air would drop as CO2 was absorbed.  So each year a bit less would be absorbed by the ocean.  But even if the oceans could absorb at the same rate as in 2000, it would take 70 years to absorb 140 billion tonnes of carbon.

Leaving my basic calculations alone, scientists have done the sums and estimated how long it would take for carbon to be absorbed.  As I said above, according to David Archer (2005), after about 300 years much of the added CO2 would have dropped out of the air but "17– 33% of the fossil fuel carbon will still reside in the atmosphere 1 kyr from now, decreasing to 10– 15% at 10 kyr, and 7% at 100 kyr".

Below is a graphic prepared by Robert Rohde of Global Warming Art.

Image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art

There's fat chance of us stopping all CO2 emissions in the immediate future but a chance we can seriously cut them over the next two or three decades if we put our minds to it.  The sooner we start in earnest the better.

Four degrees could be the limit for plant absorption of CO2


The article that Anthony Watts scoffed at when he wrote his "five year" residence time lines were as an introduction to a press release of a new paper.  The paper by Friend et al in PNAS is about a study of plant uptake of CO2 (open access at the moment).  The researchers found that at 4 degrees of warming, the biosphere will become saturated with carbon and will lose its capacity to absorb CO2 because of the heat and drought associated with global warming.  Anthony as usual didn't provide a link to the paper or the press release, but the research is getting a bit of publicity.  From the Cambridge press release:
As the world continues to warm, consequent events such as Boreal forest fires and mid-latitude droughts will release increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere - pushing temperatures ever higher. 
Initially, higher atmospheric CO2 will encourage plant growth as more CO2 stimulates photosynthesis, say researchers. But the impact of a warmer world through drought will start to negate this natural balance until it reaches a saturation point.
The modelling shows that global warming of 4 degree will result in Earth’s vegetation becoming “dominated” by negative impacts - such as ‘moisture stress’, when plant cells have too little water - on a global scale.
Carbon-filled vegetation ‘sinks’ will likely become saturated at this point, they say, flat-lining further absorption of atmospheric CO2. Without such major natural CO2 drains, atmospheric carbon will start to increase more rapidly - driving further climate change.   

From the paper itself:
Vegetation carbon residence time not only is important because of its contribution to GVM [global vegetation model] uncertainty, but also represents a key stage in the cascade of carbon from the atmosphere, through various organic and inorganic surface pools, and back to the atmosphere. Changes in vegetation carbon residence times can cause major shifts in the distribution of carbon between pools, overall fluxes, and the time constants of terrestrial carbon transitions, with consequences for the land carbon balance and the associated state of ecosystems.

From the WUWT comments


Anthony Watts has the audience he deserves. There are a few silly people who talk about how the temperature in their area can vary a lot in a day or a year therefore they aren't scared of a piddly four degree increase in the average global surface temperature! They don't understand how averages are worked out or that there is a huge difference in terms of human comfort (or lack of) between a top of 43 degrees Celsius and a top of 53 degrees Celsius. (Comments are archived with the WUWT article here.)


talldave2 says:
December 16, 2013 at 1:04 pm
My area experiences a 100-degree annual temperature swing. The notion 4 degrees would have any noticeable effect on vegetation is laughable.

RHS says "those plants won't notice a thing!":
December 16, 2013 at 1:08 pm
I’m with talldave2, being in Denver, we’ve experience lows last week of minus 10 and an expected high today of 60. With a swing of 70 degrees in about 7 days, it is hard to imagine we’d notice a thing with a 4 degree difference.


nicholas tesdorf says "scientists don't know nuffin'":
December 16, 2013 at 1:08 pm
German and Austrian taxpayers who are funding this sort of alarmist nonsense from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria should feel savagely aggrieved. One glance at the chart of peer reviewed literature would tell one that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for less than 10 years, not 100 years. The IPCC might as well claim 1,000 years and make a real meal of it all.
Actually, nicholas, the IPCC "says" 20% of our CO2 pollution stays in the air for many thousands of years.


Richard111 says:
December 16, 2013 at 1:26 pm
A warmer world will create drought??? I stopped reading at that point.
Umm, the warmer world means that there is more drought and fires and plants will die and burn and give up CO2 making it warmer still.


Rob Potter is another one who commits the logical fallacy of personal incredulity and thinks that "scientists don't know nuffin'".  He says that he doesn't like the definition of residence time of carbon in vegetation.  He's not interested in that.  In fact he doesn't even believe that droughts will get worse as the world heats up. He thinks that all the moisture in the air will stop droughts from happening.  Silly Rob doesn't know that we will have more droughts and more floods, sometimes in the same place at the same time.  I suppose he thinks he knows all this because he thinks that scientists (who don't know nuffin') told him so.
December 16, 2013 at 1:29 pm
Wait a minute, all the discussion of residence time has referred to CO2 in the atmosphere, not plants. In the very first sentence they have re-defined this as “the length of time carbon remains in vegetation during the global carbon cycle – known as ‘residence time’ -”. This is a bait and switch as non-one is concerned with residence time in plants, only in the atmosphere.
And even more junk when they use 4 degrees as the end of the world scenario, but the effect on plants is the supposed widespread drought that this 4 degree rise creates. Really? Such a rise in temperature is going to remove water vapour from the atmosphere? Despite the fact that such an increase would release a great deal of frozen water from glaciers and get it into liquid form where it will evaporate easier? The simplistic idea that warmer equals drier is the complete opposite of the basic CAGW meme that CO2 effect in the atmosphere is amplified by the increased water vapour which it causes.
No, pile of junk from the first to the last. No basis in physical or biological fact (as the people who have pointed out how well plants grow at a wide range of temperatures have already pointed out).

RockyRoad says the Earth system has no limits.  All the world is infinite.
December 16, 2013 at 1:50 pm
There’s somehow a limit to how many trees grow, or how much grass the earth supports, or how many newspapers end up in landfills, or….
These guys are lying like a lot of other politicians I’m familiar with.

Richard M says it's not going to get any warmer:
December 16, 2013 at 2:31 pm
It isn’t going to warm anywhere near 4° which makes the entire paper a big s0-what. We will likely experience two cool PDOs this century and a solar minimum of some unknown degree. Chances are it won’t be any warmer in 2100 then it is right now, and it could be cooler.

james griffin keeps referring to "previous Holocenes".  He used to have six of them IIRC.  This time he's reduced it to five and says:
December 16, 2013 at 3:16 pm
At least one of the previous five Holocene’s had temperatures 5C higher than today….as soon as one sees the words “climate models” we know it is a waste of time

RicHard. says blithely, ignoring the references to boreal forest fires and mid-latitude droughts :
December 16, 2013 at 3:21 pm
4 degrees is meaningless in agriculture. Each country has its own indiginous plants that are well able to withstand this increase. It is when you plant non indiginous plants that there could be a problem.

bob prudhomme doesn't think that humans were able to breathe until well into the twentieth century at the earliest and says (excerpt):
December 16, 2013 at 3:41 pm
If co2 drops to 200 to 300 ppm then human beings quit breathing . 

Arno Arrak is a physics denier and says:
December 16, 2013 at 4:09 pm
Regarding the carbon residence time. It is actually irrelevant because carbon dioxide is not warming the world 


Archer, D. (2005), Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C09S05, doi:10.1029/2004JC002625

Andrew D. Friend, Wolfgang Lucht, Tim T. Rademacher, Rozenn Keribin, Richard Betts, Patricia Cadule, Philippe Ciais, Douglas B. Clark, Rutger Dankers, Pete D. Falloon, Akihiko Ito, Ron Kahana, Axel Kleidon, Mark R. Lomas, Kazuya Nishina, Sebastian Ostberg, Ryan Pavlick, Philippe Peylin, Sibyll Schaphoff, Nicolas Vuichard, Lila Warszawski, Andy Wiltshire, and F. Ian Woodward. Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2. PNAS, December 16, 2013 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222477110

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Anthony Watts @wattsupwiththat sees climate conspiracies everywhere...

Sou | 4:27 AM Go to the first of 2 comments. Add a comment

Anthony Watts has just come across the tale of the senior EPA official who pulled a giant scam.  Probably because he's now coming up for sentencing so it's in the news again.  The official pretended to work for the CIA and instead just took months off work.  He also made huge claims of travel expenses.

It's another example of the sort of thing that happens sometimes in government agencies and, more commonly, in the private sector (but most of those aren't made public for obvious reasons).  There was a case in Queensland a couple of years ago of a man who defrauded the government of millions while working at the health department.


It's 'the cause' wot done it! sez Anthony


What Anthony sees, though, is another climate conspiracy.  (Archived here.) It's not of course. It's a case of fraud and deception quite unrelated to climate science.  But anything to get his denialati riled up.  Anthony writes:
This is stunning, yet not surprising. We know people get caught up in “the cause”, and that there are massive egos involved in some of the more visible climate advocates that lead them to irrational excesses of word and deed, but this one takes the cake.

Anthony is trying to say that he committed the fraud because climate advocates have big egos!  That's a stretch.  But he goes further and twists the meaning of a quote from Patrick Sullivan, an Assistant Inspector General at EPA:
And of course, here’s the “anything for the cause” blindness that allowed it all to happen:
Sullivan said he doubted Beale’s fraud could occur at any federal agency other than the EPA. “There’s a certain culture here at the EPA where the mission is the most important thing,” he said. “They don’t think like criminal investigators. They tend to be very trusting and accepting.”
Translation: he’s doing good work for “the cause”, so there’s no need to look further.
Trust a conspiracy theorist to come up with a spin like that.  And there's more.  Anthony goes the whole hog into full blown conspiracy ideation, writing:
While this is a massive fraud of salary and benefits, one has to wonder what sort of fraud this man may have perpetrated in his role as a climate official. ...In this EPA document, they don’t seem to be looking into any of those things, only his travel abuse. I think they have “team blinders” on since I haven’t found anything where they look into the quality of his climate work.

Aha! Climate science is a hoax because a government employee defrauded the government of funds.  Anthony has handed his science deniers a new conspiracy theory.

Anthony doesn't let it rest even there.  He decides the entire government is rife with corruption and reckons he's living in a third world country now.
The culture of corruption in Washington will be the death of the republic if it isn’t reigned in soon. Already our government feels like that of a third world country.

America the brave is no more.  I wonder if Anthony Watts is thinking of moving to a developed nation?  And which one?  (Maybe one where the cost of a five day conference will be less than $415 and won't break his piggy bank.)


From the WUWT comments


No-one else seems to be buying Anthony's climate conspiracy.  There aren't too many comments yet, so I guess there's still time.  But this could be a case of WUWT deniers being jaded.  So many conspiracies to choose from and this one of Anthony's doesn't carry as much excitement or flair as the terribly secret (and outrageously public) Agenda 21 and New World Order and Lizard Men.

Bob Tisdale protests Years of Living Dangerously, with another crank letter @wattsupwiththat

Sou | 2:36 AM Go to the first of 2 comments. Add a comment

Bob Tisdale is one of the denialati who Anthony Watts tolerates at his anti-science blog WUWT.  This is despite his overly long, tedious articles which bore the pants off everyone. His articles are almost always copies and pastes of every other article he's written.  He might top and tail them differently for variation. But that's all.  Mostly they are about ENSO.  Here's a summary.

Of late, Bob's tried to liven things up with videos, but they didn't go down all that well, generating comments like this one from Snotrocket:
I gave up on the video because the voice-over was so amateur and of such a depressing tone [sigh].
He's also tried to get in the swing of things by writing open letters.  I don't know if he sends the letters anywhere, or how.  So far he's written open letters to the US Secretary of State, George Clooney and Lewis Black and now to a whole raft of Hollywood producers and actors.  He's even made carbon copies.  Yes, Bob's old school.  (Can you even buy carbon paper still?)

I can imagine him sitting over his Olivetti typewriter, grumbling at the fact that all the world bar him and some other somewhat deluded individuals in the world, who throng to places like WUWT, accepts climate science.

Years of Living Dangerously is a new documentary to be released next year.  It's telling stories about how climate change has affected people in different parts of the world.  It has some big names.  Poor old Bob Tisdale doesn't rate a mention.  But he can write crank letters in protest.  Here's a sample - addressed to all the Hollywood celebrities involved in the documentary (archived here):
December 15, 2013
Subject: Concerns about Upcoming Series Years of Living Dangerously
From: Bob Tisdale
To: James Cameron, Jerry Weintraub, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Daniel Abbasi, Joel Bach, David Gelber, Solly Granatstein, Maria Wilhelm
CC: Jessica Alba, Mark Bittman, Don Cheadle, Matt Damon, America Ferrera, Harrison Ford, Thomas Friedman, Michael C. Hall, Chris Hayes, Olivia Munn, M. Sanjayan, Ian Somerhalder, Lesley Stahl
Dear Executive Producers of Years of Living Dangerously:
I am writing to you as the executive producers of the upcoming ShowTime series Years of Living Dangerously to express a few concerns. I have also carbon copied the persons you currently list as starring in the shows.

Ha ha.  I'm not kidding.  Bob has really addressed his "open letter" to eight people and sent "carbon copies" to another thirteen.  I hope he got all their addresses correct.  It would be such a shame if his letter went astray - not!

From there on what passes for originality in Bob's world stops.  He reverts to form with his endless charts of goodness knows what and his references to science deniers of one flavour or another. Bob wrote:
When data do not support your thoughts, it’s time to change your thoughts. 
Yet Bob refuses to change his thoughts despite all the evidence of human-caused global warming.  Bob doesn't understand climate science.

At one stage in his long letter, he complains that the documentary has a segment on the Texas drought, writing:
It’s blatantly obvious that most of last year’s drought conditions in the Midwest are now gone and that the drought conditions in the Southwest have lessened.
I'm not sure why he thinks that's an important point to make.  Texas is still in drought and even if it wasn't, the one they've been having has been a doozy of a drought with towns running out of water.  And on top of all that, Governor Perry has swallowed his pride and has gone to President Obama seeking flood relief after the record-breaking Halloween floods.  That's the sort of thing that is expected as the world warms.  More intense rain, with flash floods hitting drought-stricken areas - like in Brazil.  In any case, most of Texas is still in drought and some parts are suffering exceptional drought.  Below is the latest chart dated 10 December 2013:
Source: United States Drought Monitor

Bob puts up a chart of the drought, which also shows the intense abnormal precipitation in the north east of the USA over this past year alongside the extreme drought in the west and southwest.  He seems to think it means that global warming isn't happening or some such nonsense.

Bob goes on to write a few paragraphs about someone called Daniel Abbasi.  He's not listed in the credits on the main website, but earlier press releases listed him as an executive producer. Bob wrote:
Now, I’ve been studying global warming and climate change for a couple of decades—first as a true-blue believer in human-induced global warming, then as a skeptic. Many of the persons you’ve listed as science advisors to Years of Living Dangerously at your website are easily recognized eco-celebrities: Robert Corell, Heidi Cullen, Charles H. Greene, James Hansen, Katherine [sic] Hayhoe, Radley Horton, Michael Mann, Michael Oppenheimer, and Joseph Romm. But, sorry to say, Daniel Abbasi was not familiar to me as a “climate-change expert”.
Bob wants to put himself forward as being more expert than the real climate experts.  He says he's been studying global warming and climate change for a couple of decades.  Yet Bob's name would not be familiar to anyone in the field as a "climate-change expert".  I imagine there are rather a lot of climate change experts that Bob isn't familiar with.  After all, he inhabits anti-science blogs, not the world of science.  Also, he's not very good at research.  For example, he only got as far as Daniel Abbasi's current role, writing:
“Climate expert Daniel Abbasi” is actually “venture capitalist Daniel Abbasi”. That will obviously be exploited by those who have different opinions than you about climate change.
He didn't get as far as finding out that before he went into the private sector, Daniel Abbasi was an academic at Yale and associate Dean in the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. Bob could probably learn a thing or two from Daniel's book on climate change if he wanted to.

Bob writes even longer sentences than I do, and I have a tendency to the garrulous.  Take this one:
Then again, if you as individuals or as a group are not profiting from Years of Living Dangerously, many persons will view it simply as a small group of very fortunate people attempting to influence politics by exploiting the pain and suffering of people here in the U.S. and around the globe, without the basic consideration that your proposals, for example, will likely cause millions of people less fortunate than you to be driven into fuel poverty—with no justifiable reason for doing so, since data do not support your assumptions
Ah, the old denier alarmism rearing its ugly head.  Bob reckons that shifting to clean energy is going to hurt the poor.  He'd rather have the poor hurt by climate change than by changing to a cleaner world that won't heat up as quickly.

I suppose that's a bit unfair of me.  Bob really doesn't believe that the world is heating up because of all the CO2 we've been throwing away.  He doesn't accept that carbon dioxide and water vapour are greenhouse gases.  He puts in a phrase now and then to pretend he accepts it a little bit, so he can still use WUWT for advertising his dreadful "books".  (Anthony doesn't accept "slayers" ie greenhouse effect deniers, except for Tim Ball. Anthony favours grubby little Tim Ball for some unknown reason.) But if you can wade through the dross you will soon see Bob Tisdale doesn't accept one of the most fundamental aspects of climate science.  Even in this article he writes:
Whether or not we curtail greenhouse gas emissions (assuming they significantly affect climate at all) ...

Bob got near the end and decided his letter wasn't long enough.  So he copied and pasted huge slabs of text from one of his other open letters.  That one was to George Clooney and Lewis Black.  Bob's been a bit star struck lately.

"Great", he says to himself.  "Just over 4,000 words.  Now that should shake up Hollywood to its very foundations."

I reckon this 1,300 or so words is enough space to waste on Bob Tisdale, denier resident at WUWT, and writer of crank letters to the rich and famous.

PS Catmando of Ingenious Pursuits has another take on tedious Tisdale's latest tome.

From the WUWT Comments


After posting this article I read some of the comments.  Here are a few that show how little climate science deniers know about each other - my bold italics. (Archived here.)

Dr Colin Walsh says (excerpt):
December 16, 2013 at 5:13 am
Global warming is as well established as any other physical science. ...

Henry Galt. says (excerpt):
December 16, 2013 at 6:50 am
Dr Colin Walsh says: December 16, 2013 at 5:13 am
Please stick to fixing broken limbs and coughs and colds Doc.
Your utter ignorance of climate science is not becoming of an MD....

Nylo says (excerpt):
December 16, 2013 at 6:57 am
Thanks Dr Colin Walsh, but FYI nearly nobody here negates the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that having more of it is probably contributing in some ammount to the warming that we experienced during the XX century.   ...

Bob Tisdale says (excerpt):
December 16, 2013 at 7:20 am
Dr Colin Walsh says: “Global warming is as well established as any other physical science.”
In reality, it’s not. Human-induced global warming is government-sponsored eco-marketing masquerading as science.

And some fake sceptics feel the same as me about Bob's verbosity:

Greg Goodman says (excerpt):
December 16, 2013 at 4:53 am
Bob, who is your target audience for this opus?...
...Seriously, even I got bored by about 1/4 of the way through and I’m interested in the subject....