.
Showing posts with label Wunderground. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wunderground. Show all posts

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Too much water and not enough - a tale of two Americas

Sou | 1:55 AM Feel free to comment!

Too much rain in Florida


In the past couple of days Jeff Masters of Wunderground.com has had a couple of blog posts that couldn't be in more stark contrast.  Today he wrote about the risk of a dike failure on Lake Okeechobee in Florida.  He writes:

After the wettest July ever recorded in Florida, the Army Corps of Engineers is battling to draw down the level of Lake Okeechobee before the September peak of the rainy season. The huge lake represents an important source of fresh water to South Florida, but also poses a grave danger. The 25 - 30'-tall, 143-mile long Herbert Hoover Dike surrounding the lake was built in the 1930s out of gravel, rock, limestone, sand, and shell using old engineering methods. The dike is tall enough that it cannot be overtopped by a storm surge from anything but an extreme hurricane, but the dike is vulnerable to leaking and failure when heavy rains bring high water levels to the lake. ...
..."There is limited potential for a dike failure with lake levels as low as 18.5 feet. The likelihood of a failure increases at higher lake levels. At a lake level of 21 feet--a 1-in-100 year flood event--a dike failure would be likely at one or more locations. In the event of a dike failure, waters from Lake Okeechobee would pass through the breach--uncontrollably--and flood adjacent land. Flooding would be severe and warning time would be limited. And with 40,000 people living in the communities protected by the Herbert Hoover Dike, the potential for human suffering and loss of life is significant. ...
Read the full article here.

The Colorado River is running out of water


This situation facing the people in the south west of the USA is the opposite.  Not enough water.  Only a few days ago, Jeff Masters wrote:
For the first time in history, the U.S. government has ordered that flow of Colorado River water from the 50-year-old Glen Canyon Dam be slashed, due to a water crisis brought about by the region's historic 14-year drought. On Friday, the Federal Bureau of Reclamation--a division of the Department of Interior that manages water and electric power in the West--announced that it would cut water released from Lake Powell's Glen Canyon Dam by 750,000 acre-feet in 2014. An acre-foot is the amount of water that will cover an acre of land one foot deep; 750,000 acre-feet is enough water to supply at least 750,000 homes for one year. The flow reduction will leave the Colorado River 9% below the 8.23 million acre feet that is supposed to be supplied downstream to Lake Mead for use in California, Nevada, Arizona and Mexico under the Colorado River Compact of 1922 and later agreements. 
"This is the worst 14-year drought period in the last hundred years," said Upper Colorado Regional Director Larry Walkoviak in a Bureau of Reclamation press release. 

Read the full article here.


Climate migration in the USA?


Jeff put up this chart from Schwalm et al in his Glen Canyon Dam article (click chart to enlarge it):


With the south west of the USA facing increasing dryness, where will all the people go?  Or where will all the water come from?

With Miami facing sea level rise sooner rather than later - where will all the people go?


Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Selective memories of climate science deniers

Sou | 8:37 PM Go to the first of 3 comments. Add a comment

In a guest post on WUWT, a science denier called Alan Caruba writes an article titled: "Short Meteorological Memories".  He draws together a couple of denier memes.

How can one remember something that hasn't ever happened in living memory?


Caruba writes:
What I always find interesting is the way much of the population seems to have absolutely no memory of any previous heat wave or, for that matter, a major blizzard. Either way the news media goes bananas, usually seeing it an apocalyptic scenario. No, it’s just a perfectly normal heat wave or blizzard.
That may be true or not in any one instance.  Caruba does mention the record heat Australia had last January where the average for the entire continent hit 40.3 degrees Celsius (104.6 degrees Fahrenheit).  That's not a hot temperature in one location, which, while extra hot, would no longer be unremarkable in many parts of Australia these days.  What it is is the average maximum across the entire continent of Australia.

Just think how hot it must have got over such a vast area to record a continent-wide average of 40.3 degrees Celsius.  Not only that, but there have only been 21 days in 102 years where the average maximum temperature for the whole of Australia has exceeded 39°C; eight of these days happened last summer.

I doubt there'd be anyone living today who would have a prior memory of anything like that because it hadn't happened before in the entire instrumental record.  You can see just how hot the continent was in this animated gif chart. (Click to enlarge.)



Global warming causes climate change


Caruba goes on about terminology, claiming that "climate change" has replaced "global warming".  Not so.  The terms are not identical.  Global warming signifies the earth heating up.  Climate change is what happens as a result. Here are some references to the two terms going back some time:

It's happened before, but not like this


Caruba then cites two extreme events (for the time) that happened thirty years apart.  One in the UK and one in the north-east USA.  Most reasonable people would come back with ten or more events that have happened in the past ten years.  Consider just these events, listed on Jeff Master's blog on Wunderground:

Earth's Deadliest Weather-Related Disasters Since 2000
  1. Cyclone Nargis, Mayanmar, 2008: 138,366
  2. Heat wave, Europe, 2003: 71,310
  3. Heat wave, Russia, 2010: 55,736
  4. Flood, India, 2013: 5,748
  5. Cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh, 2007: 4234
  6. Heat wave, Europe, 2006: 3418
  7. Hurricane Jeanne, Haiti: 2004, 2754
  8. Flood, Haiti, May 2004: 2665
  9. Flood, Pakistan, 2010: 1985
  10. Typhoon Bopha, Philippines: 2012, 1901
  11. Hurricane Katrina, U.S., 2005: 1833
  12. Landslide, China, 2010: 1765

I reckon it's Alan Caruba who has a very selective memory, deliberately ignoring what is happening around the world weatherwise these days.  I'll amend the last sentence of Caruba's fluff denial of reality:

By the end of the week, deniers on WUWT are sure to issue another boring claim that the latest weather disaster is "nothing new to see, climate is always changing, CO2 levels were higher 3 billion years ago". Ignore them.