tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post8966187345730065487..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: How WUWT tries to hide the incline in the sea level at Marshall IslandsSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger106125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-30054990960140142302013-08-15T06:49:51.794+10:002013-08-15T06:49:51.794+10:00Rattus: "Also the quote says "Red Grouse...Rattus: "Also the quote says "Red Grouse and ptarmigans" not Red Grouse alone."<br /><br />The quote: "By August/September when the family moves around and some young begin to disperse, the proportion of grouse drops to 30%; but during winter, when migrations is over and so many species have left the uplands, grouse may form up to 80% of the diet" (Ratcliffe, p.140, no editing).<br /><br />It doesn't say grouse and ptarmigan--why do you keep on lying? Are that certain that none of your buddies will check on you?<br /><br />Did I claim that this is the general case? No, I already said for one thing that the peres go for the easiest prey: pigeons in and near the cities. Grouse may well be the last thing on their menu for a number of reasons: 1) grouse numbers are in decline over much of their range, probably due in some areas to pere recovery; 2) grouse are among the most difficult prey worth chasing; 3) the falcons are creatures of learning and habit: their parents or trainers must teach them how to hunt, and not all learn to catch grouse, especially near cities, or where grouse are scarce. <br /><br />Falconers have a hard time preventing peres from giving up on grouse; sometimes they cross peres with gyres to get a faster bird--something that can more easily get grouse. All this over the question, how fast is the superbird? 242mph or about as fast as a grouse? --AGFAGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36738927299181672972013-08-14T13:47:47.206+10:002013-08-14T13:47:47.206+10:00@BBD +1
@AGF JR +1 to your first sentence, assumi...@BBD +1<br /><br />@AGF JR +1 to your first sentence, assuming your "these remarks" refers to your subsequent comments.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32291791699695832622013-08-14T13:05:18.979+10:002013-08-14T13:05:18.979+10:00One last thing. Your claiming that because a spec...One last thing. Your claiming that because a special case holds true, the it must be true in the general case. This is like saying that because Mollie's Pack is known for taking bison that wolves normally take bison (there are a few packs in Canada that are known to do this). Wolves normally take deer and elk, although they have been documented as taking a wide variety of prey.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-48597405191843243652013-08-14T12:42:03.906+10:002013-08-14T12:42:03.906+10:00AGF, that link doesn't say what you think it d...AGF, that link doesn't say what you think it does. I actually read (although not in detail) the Redpath paper. You link leads to a page in a book which appears to discuss diseases in peregrines. I looked at "page 140" in another google books link which came up when I searched for the title of the paper. No love there either. Come on, give me the cite.<br /><br />Ah, I found it now. Looks like that work was done (long?) before the Redpath study which, well, actually went out and got some data. Also the quote says "Red Grouse and ptarmigans" not Red Grouse alone. Cornell cites ptarmigans as a prey item. <br /><br />Look, generalist predators will make use of whatever they find. Here in my state wolves are often accused of taking huge numbers of cattle, but FWP is only able to document about 50/year. Ranchers claim 1400/year. In Yellowstone wolves do not normally prey on bison, but one pack, Mollie's Pack, does take them. Do wolves normally take cattle? If you go by documented numbers, no. However, they do take them from time to time.<br /><br />The fact that there is no numerical response of peregrine populations to changes in grouse populations should tell you something. Thing about it.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61836648965435773892013-08-14T11:15:10.547+10:002013-08-14T11:15:10.547+10:00Generally speaking, the stupidity of these remarks...<i>Generally speaking, the stupidity of these remarks knows no bounds. </i><br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-61447759776231295292013-08-14T06:44:05.702+10:002013-08-14T06:44:05.702+10:00Generally speaking, the stupidity of these remarks...Generally speaking, the stupidity of these remarks knows no bounds. Of course people will be able to adapt to SLR--it is the slowest and most predictable of coastal processes. Dust accumulates faster. Coral grows 10 times as fast. Coastal land rises and falls a hundred times as fast due to fluid depletion (and intentional repletion). Storm surges and tsunamis raise the seas ten thousand times as much as annual SLR, up to a hundred times as much as a century's worth. SLR is something only fools worry about, at least when it prevents them from concern over 100 year storms or 100 year tsunamis. <br /><br />Any populated atolls will have no trouble mounting a stand against SLR. They could very well have trouble withstanding a typhoon. This will remain true whether SLR reverses or accelerates. Even in the most unlikely worst-case scenarios, it will take centuries to flood out our cities, and the economic threat presented will be next to negligible: the population of Florida will continue to skyrocket in spite of all your nonsensical predictions. NOBODY believes you, even though they'll tell you they do. Even on the "sinking" Pacific islands they continue to build runways for tourists, and the value of beach property continues to climb. NOBODY is paying any attention to you because deep inside they all know you are idiots. Christie says he believes in GW, but he's going to rebuild along the coast, just like before. Maybe a little stronger this time, but he obviously doesn't believe in it very much. People have short memories; they'll keep building in the same stupid places. <br /><br />And like I keep saying, warming is a whole lot better than cooling. Few warming scenarios could compete with another LIA for economic disadvantage or human misery. And superstorms have been flooding the Atlantic since mammoths roamed, and then some. --AGFAGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38864601713421846152013-08-14T06:25:18.927+10:002013-08-14T06:25:18.927+10:00Rattus Norvegicus August 13, 2013 at 1:20 AM:
&qu...Rattus Norvegicus August 13, 2013 at 1:20 AM:<br /><br />"Except that Falco pereginus doesn't feed on grouse they are known for taking birds on the wing. It's called evolution and in this case what is going on is often referred to as an evolutionary arms race."<br /><br />Rattus Norvegicus August 13, 2013 at 3:11 AM:<br /><br />"AGF, they are trained to do that. Notice that the falconer flushed the grouse and that the falcon then attacked them. In the wild grouse are not something they normally attack. I've watched a lot of peregrines hunting and seen them take plenty of pigeons and doves, but never a grouse or other gallinule." <br /><br />Rattus Norvegicus August 13, 2013 at 10:16 AM"<br /><br />"I think I said they don't normally take them. Your claim that Redpath paper shows they have grouse as 80% of their prey base is patently false. 40% as a max by biomass is more like it."<br />=======================================================<br />I see I repeated the same link at 8/13 547, leaving the page 140 reference from Ratcliffe's book dangling. Here it is:<br /><br /> http://books.google.com/books?id=X6rG_1uDwQQC&pg=PA359&lpg=PA359&dq=scotland+peregrines+grouse+decline&source=bl&ots=rJhHw0h-lM&sig=iODuvSAglWqbbIaf537BC-dEMg0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=BDkJUtagAcK2yAHaioGADQ&ved=0CD8Q6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=scotland%20peregrines%20grouse%20decline&f=false<br /><br />Page 140: "...during winter...grouse may form up to 80% of the diet."<br /><br />--which claim you called “patently false.” As usual you don't know what you're talking about, like everyone else around here. Peres certainly do chase grouse, especially on flat ground. On mountain slopes the grouse can usually outfly them (downhill, of course), and near cities pigeons make for much easier prey, so that's what they go after. The point being, grouse are fast enough to usually escape the “superbird.”<br /><br />And more to the point, this cocky ignorance is what qualifies you (and BBD) as a “believer.” --AGF AGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90172176653106450302013-08-13T21:13:03.640+10:002013-08-13T21:13:03.640+10:00BBD for some of them I think they just "belie...BBD for some of them I think they just "believe" that future generations will be able to take care of themselves. Or if not that, that by the time the seas rise in a big way, they'll be dead and gone and won't have to worry about the future. All care no responsibility. They don't have any conception of time and space or of planning horizons and infrastructure linking people around the world today. <br /><br />I've read people who say things that suggest they think that moving all the coastal cities will be a breeze. That cities are just tar and cement and that any land that isn't currently used for housing, manufacturing, transport and other uses (eg parkland, farmland, forestry, hydrology and other uses) will just make way for the billions of people to shuffle into. Or maybe that people will just build upwards on top of existing towns and cities further inland.<br /><br />Fortunately infrastructure planners are not so short sighted. Planning for ports, for example will be quite a challenge in many parts but the planners are at least thinking about it. Smaller ports and jetties - well there is much more talk of "floating" jetties these days. <br /><br />Places like New York - what they'll do with all the underground power and transport infrastructure is anyone's guess right now. I wouldn't want to have that job. Siting of things like desal plants and nuclear power stations that need to be close to water but not under it - I wouldn't want to be making those decisions either.<br /><br />If the deniers and disinformers just kept out of everyone's way and muttered and grumbled among themselves it wouldn't be a problem. But they infiltrate the decision-makers and that's where the potential for real problems lies.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38131988518221740492013-08-13T20:28:01.421+10:002013-08-13T20:28:01.421+10:00Thanks for the links, Sou. O'Leary et al. is p...Thanks for the links, Sou. O'Leary et al. is particularly interesting given the denialist dismissal of a non-linear response driven by ice-sheet dynamics, specifically a collapse of the WAIS. <br /><br />I've long ago lost count of the times that I've pointed out that the WAIS is a marine ice sheet on a retrograde grounding slope, which makes it inherently unstable, that paleoclimate evidence shows that it has collapsed *many* times before, and that global average temperature during the Eemian was only 1 - 2C above the Holocene but MSL was *at least* 5m higher. <br /><br />Much of the problem with deniers is that they know nothing about paleoclimate behaviour. They deny without context because it's easier that way. Actually understanding what happens - what *has happened* - during only slightly warmer climates makes denial impossible. So they don't understand it. They block it out. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66060515387593279572013-08-13T12:07:52.407+10:002013-08-13T12:07:52.407+10:00A couple of articles relevant to the comments. AG...A couple of articles relevant to the comments. AGF JR might find them especially illuminating:<br /><br /><a href="http://theconversation.com/the-inevitability-of-sea-level-rise-16871" rel="nofollow">The inevitability of sea level rise</a> from Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute at The Conversation about <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/07/10/1219414110.abstract" rel="nofollow">this new paper</a> in PNAS.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/13/science/timing-a-rise-in-sea-level.html?ref=justingillis" rel="nofollow">Timing a Rise in Sea Level</a> by Justin Gillis of the NY Times about <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1890.html" rel="nofollow">this new paper</a> in Nature GeoScience.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86189558666607261342013-08-13T11:10:49.952+10:002013-08-13T11:10:49.952+10:00It's a pathology, Rattus.It's a pathology, Rattus.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-10637867539812415852013-08-13T10:16:10.774+10:002013-08-13T10:16:10.774+10:00I think I said they don't normally take them. ...I think I said they don't normally take them. Your claim that Redpath paper shows they have grouse as 80% of their prey base is patently false. 40% as a max by biomass is more like it. If you use pellet count as a guide it looks more like 25% max at a couple of sites. At the third site it was quite a bit less, more like 10%. You might look at table 3 for harriers, table 6 provides similar, although not directly comparable data for peregrines. The fact that there is no numerical response of either predator population to populations of grouse should tell you something about what is happening...<br /><br />And you are arguing about how much of their prey base is grouse at 3 sites which are managed for grouse, which means that they are more or less abundant. All of the references I found on the net for peregrine prey preferences reinforced what I had learned about those preferences 35 years ago. Quit quibbling, I never made a categorical statement, admitting that they do not normally take them. I stand by that statement.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60469288159537668302013-08-13T09:49:40.656+10:002013-08-13T09:49:40.656+10:00And again you ignore ice sheet dynamics and the fa...And again you ignore ice sheet dynamics and the fact that <b>warm water</b> destabilises the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). SLR from Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt will amplify the process.<br /><br />You have not read around this topic. <br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-55107202305411705602013-08-13T09:32:00.521+10:002013-08-13T09:32:00.521+10:00Well like I noted way back, steric SLR soaks up tw...Well like I noted way back, steric SLR soaks up two orders of magnitude more energy than eustatic, so as long as this supposed process keeps up we don't have to worry about acceleration. At the same time this gross inequality between SLR components renders R&V's T/SLR correlation rather too neat. --AGFAGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-26264561226868109472013-08-13T09:12:20.693+10:002013-08-13T09:12:20.693+10:00Yes, obviously.
It appears that an increase in w...Yes, obviously. <br /><br />It appears that an increase in wind-driven ocean circulation since the turn of the millennium accelerated the major subtropical gyres and increased rate of vertical transport of warm surface waters to depth (Ekman pumping at the centres of gyres and eddies).BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-6415249174868079812013-08-13T09:10:06.634+10:002013-08-13T09:10:06.634+10:00You're absolutely right. I have no idea what ...You're absolutely right. I have no idea what you're talking about. I tend not to blame my comprehension skill but your communication skills:<br /><br />You: "Yes, and I just did. Look at the comparison between thermosteric SLR 0 - 700m and 0 - 2000m. Note the increase at depth."<br /><br />So what are you trying to say? Heat is moving down?AGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38390519149758499312013-08-13T08:12:14.280+10:002013-08-13T08:12:14.280+10:00A novel theory: a quantum shift in climate respons...<i>A novel theory: a quantum shift in climate response. Does this mean we don't have to worry about surface warming any more?</i><br /><br />First, this is not a "quantum shift in climate response" and second, no.<br /><br /><i>Quite possibly, but have you? Show me what I'm missing.</i><br /><br />Yes, and I just did. Look at the comparison between thermosteric SLR 0 - 700m and 0 - 2000m. Note the increase at depth.<br /><br />Your response is odd. I don't get the sense you understand this very well. <br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-81274631597579738702013-08-13T08:05:37.660+10:002013-08-13T08:05:37.660+10:00Rattus Norvegicus August 13, 2013 at 6:44 AM
From...Rattus Norvegicus August 13, 2013 at 6:44 AM<br /><br />From my first link, in the abstract:<br /><br />"The proportion of adult grouse taken by peregrines appeared to be inversely density dependent, such that an increasing proportion of grouse was taken at grouse densities below 20/km^2."<br /><br />--showing peregrine predation of grouse, which you denied occurred in the wild. Cut the BS please--when you're wrong, you're wrong. <br />=================================================<br />BBD: "It appears that an increase in wind-driven ocean circulation since the turn of the millennium accelerated the major subtropical gyres and increased rate of vertical transport of warm surface waters to depth (Ekman pumping at the centres of gyres and eddies)."<br /><br />A novel theory: a quantum shift in climate response. Does this mean we don't have to worry about surface warming any more?<br /><br />Me: "This recent ocean warming must entail a change in rate of thermal expansion--an acceleration, that is, a non-linear response to CO2. So how can you talk about linear projections from a trend that's only as old as our missing heat?"<br /><br />BBD: "Thermosteric component of SLR 0 - 700m and 0 - 2000m<br /><br />"You were the one pointing to conservative linear extrapolations."<br /><br />You lost me there.<br /><br />Me: "As CO2 goes up we get rising T or heating seas (with steric SLR). One or the other, not both."<br /><br />BBD: "You haven't thought this through." <br /><br />Quite possibly, but have you? Show me what I'm missing.<br />--AGF<br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /> --AGFAGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-69258670797427923262013-08-13T07:01:51.060+10:002013-08-13T07:01:51.060+10:00As CO2 goes up we get rising T or heating seas (wi...<i>As CO2 goes up we get rising T or heating seas (with steric SLR). One or the other, not both. </i><br /><br />You haven't thought this through. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-39560505993625728412013-08-13T07:00:19.854+10:002013-08-13T07:00:19.854+10:00But haven't you heard about the "missing ...<i>But haven't you heard about the "missing energy"? The explanation for why T has gone level for a dozen years? For some unknown reason the earth is supposed to have changed its response to CO2 forcing from warming the surface to warming the ocean.</i><br /><br />It appears that an increase in wind-driven ocean circulation since the turn of the millennium accelerated the major subtropical gyres and increased rate of vertical transport of warm surface waters to depth (Ekman pumping at the centres of gyres and eddies).<br /><br /><i>This recent ocean warming must entail a change in rate of thermal expansion--an acceleration, that is, a non-linear response to CO2. So how can you talk about linear projections from a trend that's only as old as our missing heat?</i><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/sl_therm_700_2000m.png" rel="nofollow">Thermosteric component of SLR 0 - 700m and 0 - 2000m</a><br /><br />You were the one pointing to conservative linear extrapolations. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60323077050985849062013-08-13T06:44:42.491+10:002013-08-13T06:44:42.491+10:00A hen harrier is not a peregrine. In fact it is n...A hen harrier is not a peregrine. In fact it is not even a falcon. You might also consult point 2 of that abstract: peregrines were found at highest densities where there were a lot of pigeons. Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-84257534145282845482013-08-13T06:35:50.559+10:002013-08-13T06:35:50.559+10:00This comment has been removed by the author.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29291377344254214252013-08-13T06:22:16.000+10:002013-08-13T06:22:16.000+10:00BBD August 13, 2013 at 2:25 AM
"The *linar* ...BBD August 13, 2013 at 2:25 AM<br /><br />"The *linar* projections are driven by thermosteric SLR."<br /><br />But haven't you heard about the "missing energy"? The explanation for why T has gone level for a dozen years? For some unknown reason the earth is supposed to have changed its response to CO2 forcing from warming the surface to warming the ocean. This recent ocean warming must entail a change in rate of thermal expansion--an acceleration, that is, a non-linear response to CO2. So how can you talk about linear projections from a trend that's only as old as our missing heat?<br /><br />Moreover, how can we have correlation between T and SLR when the explanation for the missing heat assumes the inverse? As CO2 goes up we get rising T or heating seas (with steric SLR). One or the other, not both. --AGF<br /><br /><br /><br />AGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-25877261014286318312013-08-13T06:08:46.327+10:002013-08-13T06:08:46.327+10:00Can it be? A straw-falcon?
Makes a change from sq...Can it be? A <b>straw-falcon</b>?<br /><br />Makes a change from squirrels, I suppose. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3166783646213931432013-08-13T05:47:30.917+10:002013-08-13T05:47:30.917+10:00Rattus, e.g., here:
http://www.gwct.org.uk/docum...Rattus, e.g., here: <br /><br />http://www.gwct.org.uk/documents/1999redpathsmjanecolab.pdf<br /><br />we have examples of wild peres taking adult grouse and chick<br /><br />and here:<br /><br />http://www.gwct.org.uk/documents/1999redpathsmjanecolab.pdf<br /><br />page 140 tells how red grouse make up to 80% of pere diet in the Scottish moors. Grousers hate them and persecute them (now illegally). Wherever grouse are in decline peres are suspected, especially if the peres are at a population up tic. --AGF<br />AGFJRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04174040607216472442noreply@blogger.com