tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post8915341001014695424..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Bob Tisdale's ENSO, global warming and the third possibility...Souhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-1664190065650826882014-02-17T10:42:21.953+11:002014-02-17T10:42:21.953+11:00BoM isn't making any definitive forecast for a...BoM isn't making any definitive forecast for an El Nino. Here is the latest and it's the first time it's even suggested the possibility IIRC:<br /><br />http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20140211.pdf<br /><br /><i>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral, with climate models suggesting neutral conditions will persist at least until the end of the austral autumn. However, some warming of the Pacific is likely in the coming months.<br /><br />Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the austral autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models indicate central Pacific Ocean temperatures may approach El Niño levels by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, hence long-range outlooks should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Niño states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.</i>Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-87009957949201526392014-02-17T09:28:25.193+11:002014-02-17T09:28:25.193+11:00Yes.
This time the El Nino forecast comes from I...Yes. <br /><br />This time the El Nino forecast comes from IRI, BOM, NOAA, and Wolter (MEI).<br /><br />And I still don't really believe it. I believe it in July.<br /><br />JCHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24205437581773899832014-02-17T08:58:24.749+11:002014-02-17T08:58:24.749+11:00Thanks, JCH. So once, eight years ago, in an early...Thanks, JCH. So once, eight years ago, in an early "not for release" draft, later amended turns into "forever" in the denier hive mind. Par for the course, isn't it.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-44431769283756156702014-02-17T08:30:10.812+11:002014-02-17T08:30:10.812+11:00Sou - This is possibly the Hansen "prediction...Sou - <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2009/02/pielke-jr-how-low-can-he-go/" rel="nofollow">This is possibly the Hansen "prediction" to which the guy was referring.</a><br /><br />JCHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20133141222078954042014-02-17T08:21:23.455+11:002014-02-17T08:21:23.455+11:00It would be a mistake to bank on an El Nino in 201...It would be a mistake to bank on an El Nino in 2014. To have an El Nino surface winds have to drop. They're normal now. <br /><br />JCHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9141933246251263962014-02-17T07:04:20.307+11:002014-02-17T07:04:20.307+11:00I'm detecting a bunker mentality in the denier...I'm detecting a bunker mentality in the denier camp, the way they're hunkered down swapping old stories for comfort.<br /><br />They've clearly been nervous about surface temperatures over the last year; perhaps they've realised that without a La Nina every year or two AGW is just eating them up. And the La Ninas (Las Ninas?) are getting warmer anyway. Having made everything about surface temperatures they find themselves in a vice. Tisdale is patching together a defence-line against El Nino but it's delusional. Which means good enough for existing cult-members but not going to sell to outsiders.<br /><br />Meanwhile they're having to fight on another vital front - concensus, or lack of same.<br /><br />Evidence is mounting for the Curse of the Downfall Parody.Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-45133919706747045732014-02-17T01:17:44.220+11:002014-02-17T01:17:44.220+11:00wrt markstovals comment, if scientist have so mani...wrt markstovals comment, if scientist have so manipulated temperature record, why have they allowed this whole pause / hiatus / lack of statistically significant warming thing to go on so long?<br /><br />Surely if mark was right, temps would still be rising metronomically (with a few wiggles for verisimilitude) to crush all debate. Scientists must be so dumb they can't even fake data to give the desired result. And yet they manage to sustain the greatest conpiricy in history....<br /><br />Increasingly, I find that denier arguments don't even need a scientific response. More and more seem to fail the most elementary tests of logic, which any reasonable(!) person can muster. That goes for most Lolwuts, but increasingly with the resident rejectionists at more sensible blogs too. <br /><br />FrankDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66480683924403853292014-02-16T13:58:29.353+11:002014-02-16T13:58:29.353+11:00Yep, the Law's of Thermodynamics don't exi...Yep, the Law's of Thermodynamics don't exist in the hard-core denier brain. That is why they will never get it. They will never understand the earth's energy budget. For them it's just wacky mumbo jumbo so that scientists can get money.That is why it is so wrong to call them 'sceptics'. How is someone skeptical of immutable natural laws. No, they are fake sceptics, or more properly, deniers.Davenoreply@blogger.com