tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post8716364600600614805..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Bob Tisdale is in a tizz over record hot seasSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51450584947898824402014-12-16T20:00:03.656+11:002014-12-16T20:00:03.656+11:00Bob is such a sad fake, but he gets no sympathy be...Bob is such a sad fake, but he gets no sympathy because his tone is constantly humorlessly pseudo-authoritative. It's a grating performance.<br /><br />He must be very disappointed with the La Nina dominated decade undermining him :)Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09537772941984056434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3404731895897968392014-12-16T19:12:35.259+11:002014-12-16T19:12:35.259+11:00Epistemic closure, I like that. I've found th...Epistemic closure, I like that. I've found the best reason to bring up the concept of the planet dissipating more energy during positive ENSO phases than negative in contrarian fora is as fodder for their own raucous amusement.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-11953359710192802642014-12-16T19:07:11.896+11:002014-12-16T19:07:11.896+11:00Call it Bob's perpetual motion climate machine...Call it Bob's perpetual motion climate machine.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-8010682107124332692014-12-16T17:55:52.269+11:002014-12-16T17:55:52.269+11:00Maybe we can educate him by the back door then? If...Maybe we can educate him by the back door then? If we keep posting links to science and all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68254664921495264882014-12-16T16:09:07.314+11:002014-12-16T16:09:07.314+11:00Thanks, Robert.Thanks, Robert.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57148128010369177552014-12-16T16:08:01.775+11:002014-12-16T16:08:01.775+11:00Yes, Bob is a avid reader of HW (though often the ...Yes, Bob is a avid reader of HW (though often the HW articles go over his head). <br /><br />I see that he's now decided to align his SST curves to a baseline period, too. I wonder how long that will last?Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-36699648237494928352014-12-16T15:39:02.831+11:002014-12-16T15:39:02.831+11:00Well guess what?
Bobby or another WTFUWT? is lurk...Well guess what?<br /><br />Bobby or another WTFUWT? is lurking over this thread.<br /><br />How do I know this?<br /><br />WTFUWT? has a new (~2 hour old) thread (by BT) on the above paper mentioned here, like more than 12 hours ago.<br /><br />And the 1st Google reference is?<br /><br />Oct 14, 2014, like two whole months ago, way to go BT, getting his science from HW!Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9196316901731795072014-12-16T05:49:40.715+11:002014-12-16T05:49:40.715+11:00Ha! Of course, you break a system into two parts. ...Ha! Of course, you break a system into two parts. Those two parts have friction and now you have your source of energy!Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31319803887668611362014-12-16T05:44:02.042+11:002014-12-16T05:44:02.042+11:00No problems, just that this was a rare chance for ...No problems, just that this was a rare chance for me to add some behind the scenes comments. <br /><br />The bulk of sst analysis hasn't changed fundamentally for a couple of decades, so you don't need to be too concerned about the age of the papers. Some details have, such as the physical retrievals (only used in the last about 10 years), and the increased interest in diurnal layers in the last ~5-10 years.<br /><br />If (when) you have questions, feel free to send me email, or a twitter dm. <br />Robert Grumbinehttp://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43092915882293352302014-12-16T05:31:56.560+11:002014-12-16T05:31:56.560+11:00Thanks Robert. I wasn't able to work out who u...Thanks Robert. I wasn't able to work out who used the data so you've filled in some gaps. I didn't mean to sound disparaging of the work, either - only of Bob Tisdale's misuse of it. I found the paper I referenced extremely informative, too, even though it's a few years old now.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43322055713999242082014-12-16T05:17:16.443+11:002014-12-16T05:17:16.443+11:00Has anybody read the exchange with Nate in https:/...Has anybody read the exchange with Nate in https://archive.today/4wwIC#selection-1191.54-1191.288 ? Too funny. Here's some of my favorite quotes:<br />"<b>The higher sea surface temperatures in 2014 are easily explained by the upward shifts in the sea surface temperatures,</b> of the South Atlantic, Indian, and West Pacific Oceans, in response to the 1997/98 El Nino and the 2009/10 El Nino…."<br />(emphasis mine because that text kept me laughing and wanted to share the fun)<br />Later Nate asks:<br />"discussion about the upward steps after El Ninos/La Ninas. Would expect downward steps or gradual downward decays as well, but don’t see these. How do you understand this? AGW?"<br /><br />Bob replies:<br />"Nate, there are gradual decays in the sea surface temperatures, but the next strong El Nino came before the decay was complete."<br />then<br />"Downward steps? We only have 33 years of satellite-enhanced SST data. If and when we see one, I’ll be the first to report on it. "<br /><br />Bob is so close, yet so far.Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-42966604714757807962014-12-16T03:01:16.532+11:002014-12-16T03:01:16.532+11:00A few general bits as I know Dick Reynolds profess...A few general bits as I know Dick Reynolds professionally. (Aside: He has finally finished retiring.)<br /><br />One is, the 1 degree weekly OI is not his latest/greatest analysis system. It is a legacy system, run only for the use of the CPC (climate prediction center).<br /><br />For a decade or more, he (and collaborators, now Viva Banzon and collaborators) have done a 0.25 degree, daily analysis (still using OI methods), with retrospective run back to September, 1981 -- when the AVHRR was first launched. See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sst/ for data.<br /><br />The satellite versus buoy problems/issues do exist, as to buoy vs. ship, and argo, and ... well, observing is a messy problem. But the quote makes it sound worse than it is. We _can_ have diurnal layers form -- very warm, very thin layers of water. But to do this requires that it be sunny (never happens at night, or morning), clear, and calm (winds less than 6 m/s required, less than 2 m/s to get a strong layer). Most of the day, and almost all of the globe, these conditions don't exist. <br /><br />The satellite observations are indeed, strictly speaking, of the skin temperatures. But they are referenced (not exactly adjusted) to buoy temperatures. This part is actually, because of the scarcity and infrequency of diurnal layers, not too much of a problem. The part that is more problematic is using statistical regressions between the satellite observations (energies observed in different infrared bands) and sea surface temperature in the first place.<br /><br />A different approach, which avoids that regression problem (but not the skin vs. buoy temperature issue) is to do what's called a physical retrieval. Take your knowledge of radiative transfer and the current state of the atmosphere (by way of a global weather analysis) and trace the satellite's band observations back to what surface temperature would cause them. The results are generally pretty close to the statistical regressions (which is why some people still use them), but tend to be markedly better in very humid or very dry conditions (tropics and poles, for instance). One such source for current (as opposed to climate) SST analysis is http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_sst_high/<br /><br />(if you recognize a name, rest assured that all comments here are mine alone and do not represent my employer.)<br />Robert Grumbinehttp://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-74985766271122476122014-12-16T00:57:32.416+11:002014-12-16T00:57:32.416+11:00where he said that the observed trend was only 0.8...<i>where he said that the observed trend was only 0.87 a decade</i><br /><br />Bob's hiding the incline again? Tsk tsk.FrankDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24324476377645099332014-12-15T23:01:29.317+11:002014-12-15T23:01:29.317+11:00The coupled system mechanism is obviously friction...The coupled system mechanism is obviously friction.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-23786273377528125172014-12-15T22:33:26.755+11:002014-12-15T22:33:26.755+11:00It may be amusing to snark at Dr Bob, but the issu...It may be amusing to snark at Dr Bob, but the issue is one of epistemic closure rather than a Dunning-Kruger effect.<br /><br />Some time ago at WUWT when Bob was explaining how the 'so called AGW' warming trend was really just the ENSO cycle acting as a ratchet, with warming during El Nino dominated periods and stasis during La Nina periods, I complimented him on his accurate description of the instrumental data.<br /><br />But pointed out that this staircase pattern of warming he had described was not present in the last 1000 years of ENSO data, that showed a sawtooth pattern around a steady average.<br />As it was generally agreed that during El Nino periods the Earth lost energy because of a positive energy imbalance, and gained energy during La Nina periods the fluctuation around a mean was expected.<br />What required an explanation was the recent change in description of ENSO temperatures that showed no cooling after El Nino periods.<br />I suggested that the small changes in the way energy was lost from the Earth might result in less energy lost and more gained in each part of the cycle, so that the sawtooth of past ENSO cycles is converted to the ratchet/staircase of the present.<br />And perhaps the findings about the physics of radiative transfer of CO2 would help provide part of the missing explanation for the reason for the change in ENSO behaviour.<br /><br />This was met with more blank incomprehension than hostility. What was obvious was that for Bob, the description was sufficient. It answered all questions about what was happening, and any further analysis was viewed as partisan quibbling. The necessity for any further explanation of events was dismissed. His accurate description closed the matter definitively.<br /><br />I did point out that this made the situation even more alarming than the AGW theory. After all if ENSO now works as a ratchet on global temperatures, then when will it stop? before or after the Oceans boil dry ?!<br />(Grin)<br /><br />izen<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60835431685253772292014-12-15T22:16:06.968+11:002014-12-15T22:16:06.968+11:00Or, using Tisdale logic, the oceans cover the wet ...Or, using Tisdale logic, the oceans cover the wet bits.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24577337160944527112014-12-15T22:14:40.684+11:002014-12-15T22:14:40.684+11:00Have a good day.Have a good day.PGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10807913317731807617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13807781017902605502014-12-15T22:10:16.381+11:002014-12-15T22:10:16.381+11:00"Bob"'s been caught shifting trend l..."Bob"'s been caught shifting trend lines upwards before:<br /><br />http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/favorite-denier-tricks-or-how-to-hide-the-incline/<br /><br />He hasn't got a clue. Not a statistical bone in his body. He's good at writing lots of nonsense that tops the 5000 word mark though. I think most LOL, WHUT!ers make it through the first para or so and then chime in with a "Great job, 'Bob'!", then move on to consume the next bit of nonsense over there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70089554309228977962014-12-15T22:07:38.140+11:002014-12-15T22:07:38.140+11:00A general plea. Would everybody please stop wasti... A general plea. Would everybody please stop wasting Bob Tisdale's time. PGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10807913317731807617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-58250007801718780622014-12-15T22:05:28.510+11:002014-12-15T22:05:28.510+11:00"Persistent weather event" is a euphemis..."Persistent weather event" is a euphemism for "climate". Bob is really a closet warmist. You heard it here first.Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-82625134402593090912014-12-15T21:57:13.287+11:002014-12-15T21:57:13.287+11:00This paper is going to not help then ...
http://j...This paper is going to not help then ...<br /><br /><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1" rel="nofollow">http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1</a>. <br /><br />Shows that in the new ERSSTv4 the warming in most recent decades is enhanced. Two things the buoy correction and the infilling technique change things in last 20 years. <br /><br />Part 2 is also somewhere in the AOP queue there and adds uncertainties. No, I don't want my mental imagery to go there ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9837736229189283482014-12-15T21:54:59.168+11:002014-12-15T21:54:59.168+11:00The Dunning-Keyboard effect?The Dunning-Keyboard effect?PGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10807913317731807617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66412581620226350032014-12-15T21:46:59.856+11:002014-12-15T21:46:59.856+11:00I know you're reading Bob Tisdale. I challenge...I know you're reading Bob Tisdale. I challenge you to explain--using fewer than 250 of your own words--how your <a href="https://archive.today/o/RtKlq/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/05/did-enso-and-the-monster-kelvin-wave-contribute-to-the-record-high-global-sea-surface-temperatures-in-2014/%23comment-1806554" rel="nofollow">"persistent weather event"</a> creates higher sea surface temperatures.rubiginosahttp://www.twitter.com/rubiginosanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12556863878464732862014-12-15T15:52:08.760+11:002014-12-15T15:52:08.760+11:00Winding Bob up is fun, isn't it?Winding Bob up is fun, isn't it?David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-26386304121259143302014-12-15T15:26:33.227+11:002014-12-15T15:26:33.227+11:00... which is my long-winded way of saying thanks f...... which is my long-winded way of saying thanks for taking the time to do a bang up job of rebutting his nonsense. :)Brandon R. Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17031044715994785956noreply@blogger.com