tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post8125567387762447080..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Confirmed - 2014 was the hottest year on recordSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-889035934515173532015-04-16T14:13:40.829+10:002015-04-16T14:13:40.829+10:00Heh, after all these years I just twigged that I m...Heh, after all these years I just twigged that I meant 0.70 ± 0.<b>01</b> degree celcius.<br /><br />That's the sort of typo that crashes a lander several metres into the surface of Mars...Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16899295343894879282015-01-21T13:29:18.629+11:002015-01-21T13:29:18.629+11:00A few years ago I made this prediction:
"The...A few years ago I made this prediction:<br /><br />"<i>The annual GISS January-December land-and-sea mean global temperature anomaly <b>for the next WMO-defined El Niño</b> year will be:<br /><br />0.70 ± 0.10 degree celcius.</i>"<br /><br />(<a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/prediction-new-surface-temperature-record-2013.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.skepticalscience.com/prediction-new-surface-temperature-record-2013.html</a>)<br /><br />Given that 2014 was a fizzer of an El Niño year:<br /><br /><a href="https://archive.today/XpuaC" rel="nofollow">https://archive.today/XpuaC</a><br /><br />I'm calling bullseye.Bernard J.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38239353365212845552015-01-21T02:27:15.209+11:002015-01-21T02:27:15.209+11:00It is important to declare 2014 as the warmest yea...It is important to declare 2014 as the warmest year on record because there is this strange group of self-appointed fake experts who go around declaring there has been no warming for 18 years and 8 months - they do not seem too concerned about error bars and statistical certainty.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-66958094720660455542015-01-20T02:04:46.441+11:002015-01-20T02:04:46.441+11:00I think Judith Curry has gone nutter-butters. She ...I think Judith Curry has gone nutter-butters. She obvious does not care too much about her reputation in the climate science community if she makes comments like this:<br /><br />"Capitol Weather Gang has reactions from 20 scientists [link], including a few sensible ones (such as moi).:Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77224241319976568282015-01-20T01:56:21.700+11:002015-01-20T01:56:21.700+11:00Cherry-orchard :-) Judith Curry even dragged out a...Cherry-orchard :-) Judith Curry even dragged out and cherry-picked a couple of comments from BEST - I have not heard from them in a while.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11552461190113661645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-373550812486879412015-01-18T15:16:14.377+11:002015-01-18T15:16:14.377+11:00This is the one you're referring to I think, P...This is the one you're referring to I think, PL.<br /><br />http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/01/heat-addled-brains-and-competition.html<br /><br />I do think that 2014 being a record hot year is an important finding. It brings it home to the general public that there is no ice age about to happen and the world continues to heat up. <br /><br />I agree that in isolation it wouldn't be very important - but only if temperatures had been pretty well flat for the past century. If that were the case then neither would a record cold year have a lot of meaning in isolation.<br /><br />It's important because as time goes by the only global records being set are hot ones, not cold ones. As David Karoly pointed out:<br /><br /><i>As the saying goes, one record hot year doesn’t make a global warming trend. However, the repeated setting of new record high temperatures in 2014, 2010, 2005, 1998 and 1997 is clear indication of ongoing global warming. Using NOAA data, a new record cold year globally has not been set since 1911!</i><br /><br />http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/16/scientists-react-to-warmest-year-2014-underscores-undeniable-fact-of-human-caused-climate-change/Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5779046081191209692015-01-18T14:59:14.153+11:002015-01-18T14:59:14.153+11:00Marke makes a point that David Appell has already ...Marke makes a point that David Appell has already made. The issue is not that a record has been set, but that the three statistically-equal record holders are all in the last 10 years. The most important "AGW" plot in global surface temperatures is of the decadal averages, one of Sou's other posts.PLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-40085298020129719982015-01-18T13:30:38.807+11:002015-01-18T13:30:38.807+11:00a. and b. Building a strawman is a sign of deniali...a. and b. Building a strawman is a sign of denialism. Or is it an appeal to extremes? Either way marke makes a logical fallacy.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-206109271763713812015-01-18T11:12:40.711+11:002015-01-18T11:12:40.711+11:00
Is the poster marke:
a. A Pedant.
b. A Dramatist...<br />Is the poster marke:<br /><br />a. A Pedant.<br />b. A Dramatist.<br />c. A Scientist. <br />d. A Statistician.<br />e. None of the above.<br /><br /><br /><br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-91939787007739419312015-01-18T11:05:25.176+11:002015-01-18T11:05:25.176+11:00Well, I am perhaps being a pedant here, but the ...Well, I am perhaps being a pedant here, but the only alternative approach is probably that of a dramatist. <br /><br />, "The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for 2014 was the highest among all years since record keeping began in 1880." <br />"... . surpassing the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F (0.04°C)... "<br /><br />0.04°C, over records averaging the entire globe, derived from many different organizations and systems. <br /><br />Surely the normal scientific approach is to say: "It's dang warm alright, and may even be amongst the warmest we have recorded, but given the nature of the data and the error bars, we cannot say that with any statistical certainty". <br /><br />If the answer is, "Well, this is a world wide emergency, so we have to push the issue", surely that pre-supposes any conclusions the data may lead to? <br />markehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387629308058823374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-20309680888666235052015-01-18T07:29:21.043+11:002015-01-18T07:29:21.043+11:00Curry's gone #FullRetard...is it resentment, j...Curry's gone #FullRetard...is it resentment, jealousy and spitefulness gone too far? Is it greed? Is it fame, sense of importance and the love of deniers? Has she simply gone nuts? Some combination of the above? Who the F cares...Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-60419557693357873502015-01-18T04:11:41.534+11:002015-01-18T04:11:41.534+11:00funny enough, while the grand solar minimum was su...funny enough, while the grand solar minimum was supposed to cause global cooling, I've actually seen deniers saying that 2014's record shouldn't be a surprise because it occurred during solar max<br /><br />the contradictory nature of denier comments is truly a sight to behold<br /><br />cabcAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-52910222359591830172015-01-18T02:53:56.918+11:002015-01-18T02:53:56.918+11:00Sou,
Curry put the Slayer threads back after I qu...Sou,<br /><br />Curry put the Slayer threads back after I questioned her stirring defence of free speech in light of the deletion of whole threads in the face of some empty threats about legal action.Michaelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-65410030196823819552015-01-17T19:19:42.480+11:002015-01-17T19:19:42.480+11:00sure you can! just like you can embrace the surfa...sure you can! just like you can embrace the surface temperature dataset when it shows a "pause", but reject it as tampered and corrupt when a new heat record is broken.<br />lignenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24949479064925961682015-01-17T17:44:08.476+11:002015-01-17T17:44:08.476+11:00Bill, the appalling cartoon is still there - sever...Bill, the appalling cartoon is still there - several days later. Her behaviour when it comes to Michael Mann is quite disgusting. Her idiocy with climate science is inexplicable.<br /><br />Adelady is correct about it starting a long time ago - before Lisbon (it's why she was invited and probably the reason she went). I don't know why she is so jealous of Michael Mann, but it's a long-standing grudge that she holds. <br /><br />IIRC Judith once said something about having an epiphany with the publicity she got from her hurricane paper - and I think that was the highlight of an otherwise uneventful life. She used to do science - now she's doing an about face and chasing fame the only way she knows how. By differentiating herself from her scientific colleagues, disparaging their work, and touting silly denier memes. That way she at least gets David Rose of the Daily Mail to occasionally fit her into some column inches (maybe with Benny Peiser or another denier) - between the latest Royals scandal and a boy scout leader or equivalent. (She ought to take note of what's happened to Richard Lindzen and Roger Pielke Sr.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43379844076916558202015-01-17T15:18:57.313+11:002015-01-17T15:18:57.313+11:00Cugel, Interesting that you suggest there may have...Cugel, Interesting that you suggest there may have been a lack of creativity in Judith's career. She's certainly demonstrating that now in her construction of a justification for Senator Cruz.<br /><br />Wow, do people still remember this Lisbon Meeting? I thought it was just people like me who were actually there. No the introduction to denier-land was via Watts and Eschenbach soon after the CRU email theft. She then went on to plugging Montford's book as an authority on paleoclimatology, then came Lisbon, during which she sniped at Mann, Schmidt and Trenberth. Despite this, she was seen by the organisers as quite a catch and as someone who could restore the public trust that they asserted had been forfeited by those "implicated in climategate". As you can judge the organisers weren't themselves the greatest of bridge builders.<br /><br />Bill Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68123871969059412462015-01-17T14:58:57.081+11:002015-01-17T14:58:57.081+11:00RSS idolatry seems to have become fairly general; ...RSS idolatry seems to have become fairly general; it's the only way to keep the mythical Pause thing alive until they can hit on some new idea. Meanwhile, to avoid dead air, repeats of golden oldies will be played - models are rubbish, SlimeItGate, hockey sticks, Al Gore, I'm being oppressed, an Ice Age cometh ...Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70115993145132246462015-01-17T14:48:56.647+11:002015-01-17T14:48:56.647+11:00Curry's had a successful career, but her invol...Curry's had a successful career, but her involvement in research seems pretty pedestrian. Professorship can often be more about teaching and administration than creativity.<br /><br />Interesting to hear Curry already held such animus for Mann at the Lisbon conference. I'd got the impression that Lisbon was her introduction to the denier scene as a 'bridge-builder' and assumed she'd slid down the slippery slope from there. Maybe there's more to the story than Steve McIntyre's oily charm :)Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31063161521696663772015-01-17T14:45:21.118+11:002015-01-17T14:45:21.118+11:00Probably it is by now.
I'm going entirely f...Probably it is by now. <br /><br />I'm going entirely from memory of a discussion elsewhere around the time that Judith started her blog. Unfortunately the computer I used then went to electronic heaven and I couldn't save most of what was on it. I've not been able to find it again since and I can't for the life of me recall who it was that related the details. But I clearly remember is my "so that's it!" response. adeladyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02019930864931919369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43561561696642844452015-01-17T13:52:43.406+11:002015-01-17T13:52:43.406+11:00Adelady
Hmm, this all sounds like conjecture to m...Adelady<br /><br />Hmm, this all sounds like conjecture to me. I agree that she has a massive chip on her shoulder against a variety of prominent scientists: Mann, Schmidt and Trenberth for definite, and if those three then it would seem highly likely that there are others. <br /><br />Her reasoning is that these three are "implicated by climategate", to use her scientifically precise statement of their misdemeanours. I think she has calibrated sagainst the oft-validated Montford-Bishop-Hill turpitude scale in arriving at this conclusion .<br /><br />Joking apart, though, she's had a pretty successful career: professorship at a prestigious Univeristy: Georgia Tech is very highly regarded. I find the personal vendettas hard to comprehendBill Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73446289392175343832015-01-17T13:32:55.855+11:002015-01-17T13:32:55.855+11:00No, I don't think she's bonkers.
Her ap...No, I don't think she's bonkers. <br /><br />Her apple cart was well and truly kicked over when Mann got the IPCC gig way back last century before anyone even knew much about him. At that stage he was just a young clever clogs who'd worked with Ray Bradley and Malcolm Hughes and come up with some fancy computer statistical gee-whizzery to get some interesting results. <br /><br />I've never heard that she and he were in any sort of overt, direct competition for the job, though it's likely there were a lot of names as possibles to choose from in which she would very likely have been included along with dozens of others. But she seems to have taken it personally. If not a temper tantrum at the time, then resentment (or something) has certainly intensified as time has gone on. <br /><br />She's now got to the point where she has to keep building and strengthening the ten foot wall she's constructed out of her dislike of him. And if that means excluding, dismissing, ignoring the greater majority of the scientific community then she's willing to go that way. She's allowed a personal dislike, however flimsily based, to overwhelm her whole way of dealing with science and scientists to the extent that she'd rather spend her time and her energies with anti-scientific nongs. adeladyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02019930864931919369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-92108714755932056982015-01-17T13:27:14.368+11:002015-01-17T13:27:14.368+11:00It was a cartoon of a a dog with his paws up. For ...It was a cartoon of a a dog with his paws up. For all I know, the cartoon dog could have been playing dead.JCHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-39881257417580365202015-01-17T13:21:44.847+11:002015-01-17T13:21:44.847+11:00Sou, Did she deliberately allow the cartoon of a n...Sou, Did she deliberately allow the cartoon of a naked Mike Mann with money stuffed into his anus to remain on her blog? I thought she had just been slow to delete it?Bill Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54707673052540562582015-01-17T13:16:28.325+11:002015-01-17T13:16:28.325+11:00Wolverine,
You might be right. She did after all ...Wolverine,<br /><br />You might be right. She did after all get selected for the Koch Brothers - funded Berkeley Earth project after acquiring a (largely self-promoted) reputation as a "climate heretic", though the two events may be purely coincidental.<br /><br />Having met her at a rather strange conference in Lisbon a few years ago, she really doesn't strike me as that much of a schemer. Mind you she did seem to have an incredibly large chip on her shoulder against the likes of Mann, Schmidt and Trenberth, so maybe she, like Churchill, would ally herself with the devil if it would allow her to defeat these perceived enemies.Bill Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71715314727920127442015-01-17T12:59:11.442+11:002015-01-17T12:59:11.442+11:00So Judith's back to censoring critical comment...So Judith's back to censoring critical comments now. That didn't take long, did it. Yet she didn't censor a disgusting, vulgar caricature of a climate scientist, pretty well alleging he committed fraud.<br /><br />Do you think she's gone over the edge. I mean really nuts, bonkers. Not just set up house in deniersville - but joined the Lizard Men equivalent? (She did put back the Slayers' threads just the other day, which would be consistent with that hypothesis.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.com