tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post7889431614782830487..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: How Anthony Watts turned three weeks into "almost a year" at wattsupwiththat!Souhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12303413524061568422014-03-28T10:51:44.372+11:002014-03-28T10:51:44.372+11:00When I picture the amount of inappropriate develop...When I picture the amount of inappropriate development there'll have been in Central America since '98 I cringe.Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51270806565425179112014-03-28T10:48:58.283+11:002014-03-28T10:48:58.283+11:00If the mythical Pause is defined as the period ove...If the mythical Pause is defined as the period over which there has been no statistically significant increase in lower tropospheric temperatures (RSS or UAH, whichever's lower at the time), an El Nino will shorten it considerably. It's an odd sort of Pause which gets shorter over time, isn't it?<br /><br />An equally mythical short-term Surge might become available, which would really mess with AGW denier heads. They've painted themselves into a corner with the Pause - which is, of course, all they've got bar squirrels and never-ending whining.<br />Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-7736341988548227552014-03-28T08:19:26.659+11:002014-03-28T08:19:26.659+11:00Bingo, Millicent. All we should ever need to show ...Bingo, Millicent. All we should ever need to show the 'pausists' is this:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47" rel="nofollow">The Escalator</a><br /><br />If a large El Niño does develop in late 2014/early 2015, it will make 1998 look like a walk in the park.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12473453109576686782014-03-28T06:57:18.311+11:002014-03-28T06:57:18.311+11:00He should have said 'El Nino conditions' r...He should have said 'El Nino conditions' rather than "El NIno', the latter requiring several months of the former. <br /><br />I have been watching the models which had been forecasting near El Nino sea temps, while near La Nina temps have persisted into March, as you can see for yourself at the above link. Temps have finally come around to near zero anomaly and, if the trend continues, the seas will certainly boil, not to say it will.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13417472781206830456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46784659546922780392014-03-28T01:19:00.279+11:002014-03-28T01:19:00.279+11:00I can tell you with confidence what they will say ...I can tell you with confidence what they will say because I can remember what they said in 1998.<br /><br />They will say you shouldn't worry about the record temperatures because they are due to an El Nino. They will tell you that you shouldn't assess long term trends using this year because El Ninos are temporary phenomena. This involves a certain degree of amnesia on their part because every time they tell us 'no warming in XX years' they have been using an El Nino to assess temperature trends.<br /><br />In the short term they will argue that yes GW is happening but its on the low side of CO2 sensitivity so we can ignore it. You can see them already shifting to that position.<br /><br />Then, after a few more years, they will start parroting 'no more warming in XX years' where XX is whatever number gets you back to the El Nino in 2014/15. Again, this will require a certain amount of amnesia of their part but there we go.<br /><br />Perhaps we should hold a sweepstake for the first denialist website to argue the world has cooled since the 2014/2015 El Nino.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-72239381903406562492014-03-28T01:03:45.157+11:002014-03-28T01:03:45.157+11:00If an El Nino does kick in and temperatures rise w...If an El Nino does kick in and temperatures rise what will be the deniers defence?Prince Mishkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00598981079816801276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-80610455251133519592014-03-28T00:16:56.820+11:002014-03-28T00:16:56.820+11:00To be fair, Watts was not saying that the official...To be fair, Watts was not saying that the official forecast from NOAA for almost a year had been for an El Nino to develop. He was saying that NOAA's seasonal prediction model - the CFSv2 - had been forecasting an El Nino to develop for almost a year. Big difference - the NOAA folks at CPC use many sources of information - one of which is the CFSv2 forecast - in issuing their El Nino outlooks. In any case, Watt's claim about CFSv2 is also completely false. One can easily verify by looking at the CFSv2 forecasts from previous months at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-29192320929052559052014-03-27T23:37:00.781+11:002014-03-27T23:37:00.781+11:00Watts is showing his nerves. By pretending that pr...Watts is showing his nerves. By pretending that predictions have been failing "for almost a year" (which will presumably now be received wisdom in the AGW denier camp) he can more easily dismiss what's actually being said, to the great comfort of his audience. They're whistling as they pass the graveyard ...<br /><br />Best not get ahead of things on an El Nino; there's still a good chance it won't happen this year. As and when it does it'll be time to put the boot in.Cugelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-42065779060179016692014-03-27T19:01:38.332+11:002014-03-27T19:01:38.332+11:00Thanks, idunno. That blog hadn't hit the HW r...Thanks, idunno. That blog hadn't hit the HW radar. I'll enjoy exploring it.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31897167142074952012014-03-27T18:52:16.851+11:002014-03-27T18:52:16.851+11:00Hi Sou,
The following is the best blog article I&...Hi Sou,<br /><br />The following is the best blog article I've seen on El Nino 2014...<br /><br />http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/25/monster-el-nino-emerging-from-the-depths-nose-of-massive-kelvin-wave-breaks-surface-in-eastern-pacific/<br /><br />Surprised to find RS ain't on your blogroll...idunnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-55469878781976873912014-03-27T17:50:50.091+11:002014-03-27T17:50:50.091+11:00Anthony really should always check with Kenji befo...Anthony really should always <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/05/kenji-scientific-dog-revisited.html" rel="nofollow">check with Kenji</a> before he clicks that final "submit" button to his articles.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-55094112558275697672014-03-27T17:42:03.324+11:002014-03-27T17:42:03.324+11:00Dave.
Don't forget that Watts doesn't und...Dave.<br /><br />Don't forget that Watts doesn't understand anomalies either. <i>Any</i>thing requiring more than fingers and toes is magickery to him...Bernard J.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77806311809745193672014-03-27T16:52:28.693+11:002014-03-27T16:52:28.693+11:00Well Watt's has already shown that he doesn...Well Watt's has already shown that he doesn't understand pH and logarithimic math, is it any surprise that he also doesn't understand the calendar and dates as well.Davenoreply@blogger.com