tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post7869407343669784019..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Anthony Watts attacks Christy, Spencer and MoncktonSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-83197872031086562322013-06-23T09:27:39.987+10:002013-06-23T09:27:39.987+10:00Welcome anonymous.
I enjoy tussles. Do come ba...Welcome anonymous. <br /><br />I enjoy tussles. Do come back and say what it is about rgbatduke's "comment" that you find compelling. Since you seem to be interested in the topic, you may get <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/06/a-battle-of-dukes-climate-science.html" rel="nofollow">a kick out of this</a>. It has links to all the other "skeptics" fighting with each other over who's right and who's wrong.<br /><br />On the other matter you raised, it's only extreme infringements of my comment policy that gets posts deleted here. My comment policy is much shorter than WUWT's and doesn't include any hidden unstated policies.<br /><br />Incidentally, I wasn't going to publish my <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/06/hell-hath-no-fury-like-denier-scorned.html" rel="nofollow">current draft article</a>, but have changed my mind. You might be interested in <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/06/wuwt-policy-violation-by-clueless.html" rel="nofollow">this article</a> as well.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-44980448395713659192013-06-23T09:00:38.946+10:002013-06-23T09:00:38.946+10:00RGB destroys the warmist models. Not quite what th...RGB destroys the warmist models. Not quite what this blog misleadingly portrays.<br /><br />Unlike WUWT my comment will be expurged here no doubt.<br /><br />Screen caps taken.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-32333274931999018642013-06-23T08:50:23.798+10:002013-06-23T08:50:23.798+10:00http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/13/no-significa...http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/13/no-significant-warming-for-17-years-4-months/#comment-1334821<br /><br /><i>Note the implicit swindle in this graph — by forming a mean and standard deviation over model projections and then using the mean as a “most likely” projection and the variance as representative of the range of the error, one is treating the differences between the models as if they are uncorrelated random variates causing >deviation around a true mean!.<br /><br />Say what?</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46937872099863763622013-06-22T13:19:55.283+10:002013-06-22T13:19:55.283+10:00...and a bit more......<a href="http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=8394&cpage=1#comment-96101" rel="nofollow">and a bit more</a>...Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-16275144097088522142013-06-21T06:21:16.794+10:002013-06-21T06:21:16.794+10:00RGB has wide-ranging interests. But on stats, the ...RGB has <a href="http://www.phy.duke.edu/~rgb/" rel="nofollow">wide-ranging interests</a>. But on stats, the <a href="http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=8394" rel="nofollow">statistician to the stars</a> felt a need to say something.Nick Stokeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06377413236983002873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51756656439281345392013-06-21T03:34:37.255+10:002013-06-21T03:34:37.255+10:00Thanks for your understanding Martin. I will endea...Thanks for your understanding Martin. I will endeavour to remember your name in future ;-)<br /><br />Also thanks for the RC link and the insight into old tricks... BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-33930352003783921672013-06-21T02:29:00.785+10:002013-06-21T02:29:00.785+10:00That's OK BBD. I also tend to lose my temper i...That's OK BBD. I also tend to lose my temper in those situations -- not good. <br /><br />BTW the dirty trick of forgetting that all the observational data comes from a single "run" of the real climate goes back to <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/tropical-troposphere-trends/" rel="nofollow">Douglass et al.</a> --- it's really a golden oldie. Perhaps that's why I am sensitized to it.Martin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70224093796461044122013-06-21T01:59:11.339+10:002013-06-21T01:59:11.339+10:00Hello again Martin
My apologies.
I did not reco...Hello again Martin<br /><br />My apologies. <br /><br />I did not recognise your name or I would have read and thought about what you wrote more carefully. More objectively. <br /><br />Christy's history of misrepresentation makes me not angry but furious, and I had decided - mistakenly - that you were defending or at least excusing it.<br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-13815551919886634132013-06-21T00:28:35.144+10:002013-06-21T00:28:35.144+10:00The classic how many Microsoft engineers...?
(The...The classic <i>how many Microsoft engineers...</i>? <br />(They don't. Instead they define darkness as the new industry standard)<br />Martin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57478689445912688992013-06-21T00:24:03.987+10:002013-06-21T00:24:03.987+10:00BBD, look at the graph above named "Spencer &...BBD, look at the graph above named "Spencer & Christy's Spaghetti". The data goes to 2012, the graph to 2025. That's 13 years. Now you can look at any publication showing temperature projections for the various RCPs: they will not diverge from each other, or from simple linear extrapolation for that matter. Temperature rise has been, apart from natural variability, linear for the last 30-odd years, and that won't change in just 13 years more. You're asking for a citation for textbook (or tacit) knowledge.<br /><br />BTW did you appreciate my argument that we have only one realisation of the real climate, from which both the radiosonde and the satellite "observations" are drawn? It is a rather essential point.<br />Martin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-41591698469582207532013-06-20T20:18:37.228+10:002013-06-20T20:18:37.228+10:00Fair enough. The rest stands as is. Fair enough. The rest stands as is. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-75073674620695148852013-06-20T19:48:40.686+10:002013-06-20T19:48:40.686+10:00How many punks does it take to change a light bulb...How many punks does it take to change a light bulb?<br /><em>None, punk never changed anything</em>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-87790265741989516822013-06-20T19:41:27.446+10:002013-06-20T19:41:27.446+10:00Keep your hair on guys. This is blog review not p...Keep your hair on guys. This is blog review not peer review :D <br /><br />(Robust and snark is good, but if Martin Vermeer is *the* Martin Vermeer, he isn't a denialist.)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-11294278307695410212013-06-20T19:23:32.087+10:002013-06-20T19:23:32.087+10:00This comment has been removed by the author.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38632019481018823222013-06-20T19:17:47.475+10:002013-06-20T19:17:47.475+10:00That isn't a citation. You assert that forcing...That isn't a citation. You assert that forcing the models under RCP8.5 "makes very little difference" presumably compared to the same time period forced under a lower emissions scenario eg RCP4.5. Please stop asserting and start citing. <br /><br />* * *<br /><br />I am aware that neither the sondes nor the MSU reconstructions are considered robust. I think that certain people are making strong claims based on weak evidence. That is all. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73748625369253573442013-06-20T19:13:07.481+10:002013-06-20T19:13:07.481+10:00> Citation?
Huh? Look at the graph
> Not r...> Citation?<br /><br />Huh? Look at the graph<br /><br />> Not really.<br /><br />What do you mean? All these measurements are of the real tropical Earth middle troposphere over the last few decades, and there is only one of those, right?<br /><br />And yes, the satellite "measurement" is complicated enough to be actually called a modelling effort. And while the radiosonde measurements are "direct", surely you are aware of the sensor issues with radiosondes.<br />Martin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-59000211898141984722013-06-20T17:44:17.915+10:002013-06-20T17:44:17.915+10:00How many paranoid conspiracy theorists does it tak...How many paranoid conspiracy theorists does it take to change a light bulb?<br /><i>Shhhh! Keep quiet. Don't move. That's not a light bulb. They are watching and listening...</i>Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24190095169233489712013-06-20T17:29:20.494+10:002013-06-20T17:29:20.494+10:00That makes very little difference, as there isn...<i>That makes very little difference, as there isn't a lot of future time in the graph.</i><br /><br />Citation?<br /><br /><i>What I would add: that all satellite and radiosonde data sets sample the same, single realization of real-world natural variability, well known to (globally) trend low?</i><br /><br />Not really. The radiosondes actually attempt direct thermometry while satellites produce a synthetic reconstruction based on multiple channel MSU data and a fairly complex model. Nor is this a *global* measurement as you say. It is tropics: 20N - 20S.<br /><br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-91158228020731726852013-06-20T16:03:33.947+10:002013-06-20T16:03:33.947+10:00Brown works in a completely different area of phys...Brown works in a completely different area of physics, far removed from atmospheric physics or other physics associated with earth systems science. He might as well work as a boot-shiner, osteopath, barber or neurologist for all the good his own specialist knowledge is to him in relation to climate.<br /><br />Given his appointment at Duke, I'd say he has the ability to learn about climate science should he want to do so. Whether he chooses to or not is another matter. He might do a Muller. I don't think he is of the same calibre as Muller scientifically, but he is a 'denier' in the fashion of Muller. Probably his brain functioning is constrained by his ideology like Muller, Curry, Pielke, Tol etc. I can't see him having much influence beyond a couple of denier blogs. He's not a heavyweight from what I can tell.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-49482725070369684842013-06-20T14:11:55.535+10:002013-06-20T14:11:55.535+10:00I just checked out the wikipedia entry on ensemble...I just checked out the wikipedia entry on ensemble forecasting, and it makes it pretty clear that Brown doesn't know what he's on about. I think Brown is labouring under the impression that given enough time and knowledge we could model the atmosphere deterministically. It's sad to see a physicist get physics so wrong. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71964207038395283802013-06-20T06:04:23.526+10:002013-06-20T06:04:23.526+10:00> That the models are forced by RCP8.5?
That m...> That the models are forced by RCP8.5?<br /><br />That makes very little difference, as there isn't a lot of future time in the graph.<br /><br />What I would add: that all satellite and radiosonde data sets sample <em>the same, single realization</em> of real-world natural variability, well known to (globally) trend low?Martin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-5266949923898421522013-06-19T22:02:16.524+10:002013-06-19T22:02:16.524+10:00How many statisticians does it take to change a li...How many statisticians does it take to change a light bulb?<br /><i>All I can say is its the upward trend is accelerating but I could give you an estimate based on the mean, mode, and median for the last ten lightbulb changes (p=0.5), er, I mean replacements.</i>Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-15806326840067935132013-06-19T21:47:29.526+10:002013-06-19T21:47:29.526+10:00How many pedants does it take to change a lightbul...<i>How many pedants does it take to change a lightbulb?</i><br />[sigh] We don't <i>change</i> lightbulbs, we <i>replace</i> them.<br /><br />Love the parade of 'I have no idea what you're saying, but I like the cut of your jib, so you must be right' comments! <i>Paging Messr.s Dunning and Kruger...</i>billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28635913640185277522013-06-19T18:56:06.677+10:002013-06-19T18:56:06.677+10:00Does anyone at the Other Place actually notice the...Does anyone at the Other Place actually notice the things that are troubling about the Christy graph? The way Christy calls TMT the "bulk troposphere" when it isn't? The fact that it's not really clear how Christy got TMT temps (if that is what they actually are) out of KNMI Climate Explorer in the first place? That the models are forced by RCP8.5? The dubious averaging of RSS and UAH? The absence of discussion of why the two satellite recons are so very different? The absence of discussion about the reliability of the tropical radiosonde data? Etc. Nobody spotted any of this?BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-80420899777660164292013-06-19T16:11:42.097+10:002013-06-19T16:11:42.097+10:00How many politicians does it take to change a ligh...How many politicians does it take to change a light bulb?<br /><br /><i>Depends on how many voters are watching...</i><br /><br /><br />Bernard J.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com