tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post7628807837544904428..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Not even wrong ...Souhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57559828991204424202014-02-28T03:15:14.875+11:002014-02-28T03:15:14.875+11:00Thanks Sou *blush*
I dont fancy myself any sort o...Thanks Sou *blush*<br /><br />I dont fancy myself any sort of authority on climate, but I have read a lot of history, especially on WW1. Tim's "Just So" tale triggered all my BS alarms.<br /><br />As an aside, the chap responsible for most of the above was Ernest Gold, later President of what became the WMO - the threads of the past intertwining with those of the present....FrankDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-77525387180101288432014-02-28T02:49:16.505+11:002014-02-28T02:49:16.505+11:00I mean no fake flattery intended. It's a genu...I mean no fake flattery intended. It's a genuine compliment.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-57162499702075237432014-02-28T02:48:28.222+11:002014-02-28T02:48:28.222+11:00Thanks, Frank. That's fascinating.
I'm ...Thanks, Frank. That's fascinating. <br /><br />I'm awed by the depth of your knowledge (and other commenters on so many topics). Seriously - no flattery intended :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3676868211275151362014-02-28T02:43:00.387+11:002014-02-28T02:43:00.387+11:00Timmy says that practical weather forecasting was ...Timmy says that practical weather forecasting was needed for aircraft in the First World War, but that is, as it were, balls. He doesn't even seem to know the difference between an observation and a forecast.<br /><br />Firstly, this information was not required by aircraft, but by the Royal Engineers and Royal Artillery, The current observations were used for principally for improving artillery barrages beyond line-of-sight, where varied conditions could mean a difference of hundreds of yards in accuracy.. True weather forecasting was necessary for planning operations days in advance, for planning the release of poison gas (or warning that the Germans might), and for barrage planning, which was laid down in great detail days in advance for a large operation. <br /><br />Royal Flying Corps airfields only measured wind speed and direction, and their "real time" observations were not of much use to anyone but the airfield gathering them. General Headquarters declined the RFC's offer to supply this information because surface conditions were not very useful; what was needed was conditions at altitude. Aircraft were little used gathering this data, and not at all until 1918 (by which stage aircraft were sufficiently developed that they could not really be said to be "at the mercy of the weather"). Rather, measurements were taken by tethered balloons, or where that was not available, by calculating winds from isobaric charts developed by assimilating pressure data from all over northern France and Belgium.<br /><br />These observations were communicated not in terms of temperature and so on but in terms of corrections to artillery range tables. Since the speed of sound varies with these conditions, the observations were also used to provide a separate set of corrections for observers locating enemy artillery by "sound ranging" - detecting the report of a gun when it was fired.<br /><br />Current observations were mostly made in Northern France (some at airfields, some not), but the <b>forecasts</b>, essential for planning operations, were based on data collected all over Great Britain, mostly at scientific establishments. The Forecasting Section was based in South Kensington, London, and took data from northern Scotland to Western Ireland, but using data from only one airfield, AFAICT. So Tim's "post hoc ergo propter hoc" claim about why intruments are sited at airports is as bogus as the rest of his article.FrankDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-50534557785637209242014-02-27T05:59:57.966+11:002014-02-27T05:59:57.966+11:00He probably sucks the forecasts from D'Aleo as...He probably sucks the forecasts from D'Aleo as WeatherBell.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-18333219476040989892014-02-26T19:38:56.780+11:002014-02-26T19:38:56.780+11:00Nah, what you need is downwind stations and a time...Nah, what you need is downwind stations and a time machine.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02729454651003425550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-34170203278473218582014-02-26T18:43:04.825+11:002014-02-26T18:43:04.825+11:00Tim "They can't predict the weather"...Tim "They can't predict the weather" Ball's attempt to denigrate climate models through an attack on weather prediction models has achieved the unintended consequence of skewering Anthony Watts. The "all" in Tim Ball's claim that "all weather forecasts are worse than they were 50 years ago." says a lot about his mate Watts' ability as a meteorologist and the accuracy of the weather forecasts of Watts' company, Intelliweather. Wikipedia states: "… Anthony Watts began his broadcast meteorology career in 1978" (35 years ago) "as an on-air meteorologist. … Watts has been the director and president of IntelliWeather Inc. since 2000" (14 years ago).<br /><br />The big question for me is: Why didn't Tim Ball either call out Anthony Watts for his StormPredator Forecast Engine http://www.stormpredator.com/forecast.htm or at least look at the accuracy of the Watts' StormPredator forecasts?<br /><br />And how delicious is it that Watts must use forecast models to run his SormPredator Forecast Engine? (My understanding is that a forecast engine identifies and selects the optimum forecasting model.) George Montgomeryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07042191140401441348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-68575590544616068722014-02-26T18:31:12.081+11:002014-02-26T18:31:12.081+11:00Tim Ball is a denier martyr, don'cha know, so ...Tim Ball is a denier martyr, don'cha know, so Anthony cuts him a little more slack than the ordinary slayer.Adam R.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-86103161459681535922014-02-26T17:31:45.203+11:002014-02-26T17:31:45.203+11:00The garbage is even worse than usual. Hubert Lamb ...The garbage is even worse than usual. Hubert Lamb was working for the Irish Met. Service during the war so I'm not sure when he chatted to the aircrew returning from Germany. CKM Douglas was the senior forecaster at Dunstable. The problem was of course they still had very limited knowledge of the dynamics of the upper air.<br /><br />Regarding the UK METO, for whom I worked for forty years, the current five day forecast is as accurate as the two day one was twenty years ago.malcolm nottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-70408356433827091272014-02-26T16:17:26.218+11:002014-02-26T16:17:26.218+11:00"Tim mumbled something about blaming inaccura..."Tim mumbled something about blaming inaccuracy on a lack of weather stations downwind."<br /><br />Pardon my ignorance, but I would have thought that UPWIND weather stations would be of more use in weather forecasting?MWSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-90963881145279873872014-02-26T09:38:35.703+11:002014-02-26T09:38:35.703+11:00He probably goes to the astrology pages to see if ...He probably goes to the astrology pages to see if there will be a blizzard in Darwin tomorrow. And wonders how everyone else in his town just accepts that winter is usually cooler than summer.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-15735900453602396142014-02-26T09:34:18.844+11:002014-02-26T09:34:18.844+11:00I am always amused by how people make a dumb comme...I am always amused by how people make a dumb comment (like "Lil Fella" above) and then tag on "Simple!" to the end of it. It is like a double whammy of dumbness. <br /><br />Or perhaps they are being ironic ...<br /><br /> Jammy Dodgernoreply@blogger.com