tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post7385046915811586139..comments2024-02-12T15:25:44.028+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Extreme December weatherSouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-87864831220303608862016-01-01T06:04:04.964+11:002016-01-01T06:04:04.964+11:00"... where I take a starring role."
Th...<i>"... where I take a starring role."</i><br /><br />The starring role is stupidity and deception. <br />Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-46624134727237478522016-01-01T02:01:10.990+11:002016-01-01T02:01:10.990+11:00no problem, you display the same predictable cherr...no problem, you display the same predictable cherry picking, comical and catastrophic misunderstanding the science as all deniers at conspiracy theorist Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-78616028961777914452015-12-31T13:45:12.699+11:002015-12-31T13:45:12.699+11:00Snap!Just said a similar thing on the other thread...Snap!<br><br>Just said a similar thing on the other thread:<br><br><a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/12/more-about-hot-weather-in-north-america.html?showComment=1451529331483#c691436738874915260" rel="nofollow">http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/12/more-about-hot-weather-in-north-america.html?showComment=1451529331483#c691436738874915260</a><br><br>As a dyed-in-the-wool religious sceptic, I have to say that the Andy Wilkins of the world are doing the devil's work for him...Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43579683513772790192015-12-31T13:44:18.205+11:002015-12-31T13:44:18.205+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28871052848131811792015-12-31T13:35:06.579+11:002015-12-31T13:35:06.579+11:00Andy's claim about the average person on the s...Andy's claim about the average person on the street are as empty as his denial of science. No evidence to support it. He doesn't even make an attempt to show any evidence, unlike the pollsters, who survey the "average person". (I could just as easily say that the average person wants to do the right thing, not the wrong thing - but then I'd look for evidence. The Andy's of the world are the <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/03/fooling-bottom-8-oh-its-just-another.html#RWA" rel="nofollow">bottom 8% dregs</a>, and are by no means "average".)<br /><br />These polls demonstrate that Andy is wrong about the average person.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2015-polling-climate-change" rel="nofollow">http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2015-polling-climate-change</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.georgetown.edu/news/georgetown-poll-climate-change-action.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.georgetown.edu/news/georgetown-poll-climate-change-action.html</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-idUSKBN0U52DY20151223" rel="nofollow">http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-idUSKBN0U52DY20151223</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/11/05/global-concern-about-climate-change-broad-support-for-limiting-emissions/" rel="nofollow">http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/11/05/global-concern-about-climate-change-broad-support-for-limiting-emissions/</a>Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-38585417923444206572015-12-31T05:50:45.861+11:002015-12-31T05:50:45.861+11:00You don't think a denier can actually stop wit...You don't think a denier can actually stop with denialisms, do you? It's what he is for.Jgnfldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-9979237811198025752015-12-31T01:52:48.669+11:002015-12-31T01:52:48.669+11:00Take it to Missouri where The Great Flood 1993 wil...Take it to Missouri where The Great Flood 1993 will become a mere stat.cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-789517557406983082015-12-31T01:11:16.960+11:002015-12-31T01:11:16.960+11:00Oh look, the guy with the fallacious logic is back...Oh look, the guy with the fallacious logic is back.<br /><br />Have you figured out yet exactly which fallacies you committed, Andy Wilkins?Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-52068842101956770652015-12-30T23:04:01.420+11:002015-12-30T23:04:01.420+11:00My reply is on Sou's next post where I take a ...My reply is on Sou's next post where I take a starring role.<br />Essentially, I said that there really is nothing to worry about and the average person on the street couldn't care less about global warming as they have more important things to think about.<br />Consequently, a load of other commenters got rather annoyed.Andy Wilkinsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-45051818769386146382015-12-30T11:05:58.549+11:002015-12-30T11:05:58.549+11:00"Julia Slingo told us in 2012 that UK winters..."Julia Slingo told us in 2012 that UK winters would be drier and colder"<br /><br />No she did not. Andy is employing the standard fake skeptic "gotcha" technique where observations are turned into predictions.<br /><br /><br />Slingo told the MPs that there is "increasing evidence in the last few months of that depletion of ice, in particular in the Bering and Kara seas, can plausibly impact on our winter weather and lead to colder winters over northern Europe".<br /><br />She went on to explain that "colder winters also tend to be drier as snow has less water content than rain."<br /><br />Interestingly, the 2011 research that she was citing was co-authored by Judith Curry.<br /><br />http://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4074<br /><br />"We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters."<br /><br />Curry even has a post about it.<br /><br />But don't expect to hear "Judith Curry told us in 2011 that UK winters would be drier and colder" from the climate cranks - no doubt that paper has already been tossed the memory hole.<br /><br />MikeHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54236467746987771222015-12-30T05:30:00.581+11:002015-12-30T05:30:00.581+11:00ThanksThanksAndy Wilkinsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-43668480864814259222015-12-30T04:38:35.104+11:002015-12-30T04:38:35.104+11:00Lol at the deniers, they are so predictable, well...Lol at the deniers, they are so predictable, well done Andy Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-39201355220709223082015-12-30T03:46:58.576+11:002015-12-30T03:46:58.576+11:00Looking forward to that.Looking forward to that.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-79159969066145019592015-12-30T03:36:54.850+11:002015-12-30T03:36:54.850+11:00We're not in Kansas anymore Toto...
:-(We're not in Kansas anymore Toto...<br /><br />:-(Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47583977201961255132015-12-30T02:04:51.636+11:002015-12-30T02:04:51.636+11:00Thanks for all the replies (to this and my info ab...Thanks for all the replies (to this and my info about Julia Slingo) I'm not by my computer right now - sat in a station typing on a phone. <br />When I'm back in front of a keyboard I'll get back to you.Andy Wilkinsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-54229226574892622372015-12-29T23:13:49.927+11:002015-12-29T23:13:49.927+11:00North Pole, 90° NL, tomorrow: thaw.
Note: 30th of...North Pole, 90° NL, tomorrow: thaw. <br />Note: 30th of December.<br />That never happened. cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-3305508453506113112015-12-29T21:27:05.978+11:002015-12-29T21:27:05.978+11:00Thanks, Blair. I knew it had been bad there lately...Thanks, Blair. I knew it had been bad there lately, but didn't realise just how bad.<br /><br />PS Warm welcome to HotWhopper :)Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-48666345918092942612015-12-29T20:49:51.113+11:002015-12-29T20:49:51.113+11:00I applaud Andy Wilkins for his acceptance that Wat...I applaud Andy Wilkins for his acceptance that Watts, Goddard, et al have been telling porky pies about Arctic Sea Ice decline.Millicentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-24964631772930228482015-12-29T19:42:03.178+11:002015-12-29T19:42:03.178+11:00This is the third major flood in Paraguay in the l...This is the third major flood in Paraguay in the last 18 months. I was in Asuncion last November, and at that stage almost every spare piece of ground (apart from soccer fields - some things are sacred) was occupied with temporary housing for people still unable to return home four months after that year's floods.<br /><br />It's also palpably obvious in Asuncion that it gets poorer the closer you get to the river, although this starts well above any plausible flood level so I think it probably has as much to do with staying away from mosquitoes (and the diseases they carry) as it does to do with floods. Blair Trewinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01149841441852181770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-73804138996478940462015-12-29T17:55:05.026+11:002015-12-29T17:55:05.026+11:00Julia Slingo told us in 2012 that UK winters would...<i>Julia Slingo told us in 2012 that UK winters would be drier and colder ...</i><br /><br />Did you miss this small detail?:<br /><br /><b><i>"But she stressed that it was one factor and not the "dominant driver" in the UK."</i></b><br /><br />I assume you are just trolling, Andrew Wilkins. Or do you really think your comment added something to the discussion?Jammy Dodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08360437479098314946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-19903510017088781462015-12-29T17:19:04.141+11:002015-12-29T17:19:04.141+11:00Did you actually read the article you cite? It dis...Did you actually read the article you cite? It discusses the effect of long term arctic ice loss on climate in the UK but also "stressed that it was one factor and not the 'dominant driver' in the UK."<br /><br />Methinks YOU are the one who should be considering isuing a "clarification/apology" over taking a single out of context statement and presenting it as something it is not. <br /><br />You do know that everyone here is well aware of this old denier tactic, do you not? That said, why don't YOU email Dr. Sligo and see what she says? That might be a little more mature than engaging in your little bit of innuendo about how ignorant or whatever you think she is compared to you. Jgnfldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28844413997928400592015-12-29T14:44:30.763+11:002015-12-29T14:44:30.763+11:00Andy Wilkins.This thing that you're doing, it&...Andy Wilkins.<br><br>This thing that you're doing, it's what intelligent people call a logical fallacy.<br><br>I'll spell that for you: L-O-G-I-C-A-L F-A-L-L-A-C-Y.<br><br>It occurs when people make mistakes in their attempts at deductive or inductive reasoning. This flawed thinking is particularly prevelant in immature thinkers, or in people who are untrained in rational analysis.<br><br>To assist you in identifying the nature of your mistake, I'll detail your error...<br><br>"Weather" is a set of values for meteorological parameters in a specific location at a specific time. On occasion such parameters, for example the temperature or the amount of rainfall, can reach extreme values that become records for that location.<br><br>"Climate" is the averaged values for meteorological parameters in a more regional location over multi-year intervals of time.<br><br>Your first logical fallacy was to confabulate weather with climate. You cherry-picked a particular extreme historical <i>weather</i> event (= "at one location at one moment", remember), and compared it to the multiple observations that people are recording for multiple locations around the globe, in an ongoing temporal listing of extreme records that continue to be set in a consistent pattern indicative of a <i>trend</i>, a <i>change</i> in said climate.<br><br>Your third* logical fallacy was to presume that contemporary increases in climatic averages are somehow invalidated and not "real" if they do not exceed the historical extreme that you selected. What you are effectively doing is comparing the extreme end of a range with a mean. Anyone with primary grade numeracy should be able to understand that the mean of a parameter can change over time even if it doesn't in fact exceed an extreme historical value.<br><br>If you want to properly invalidate all these contemporary observations you should take as many from your historical period as are being provided from the contemporary record, and you should include the same spacial scale of data. To compare you should consider their respective means, or the relative <i>numbers</i> and values of the extremes in each data set.<br><br>So, now that you are armed with an explanation of the nature of some of your fallacious thinking, perhaps you can identify the exact fallacies in which you engaged, using <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies" rel="nofollow">the options in this list</a>. I look forward to your successful indication of an understanding of where you went wrong in your thinking, and thus to congratulating you on your first step toward a more mature and educated capacity for reason.<br><br><br>[* I was perhaps a little subtle in listing your second logical fallacy, but I wanted to leave you at least a <i>little</i> challenge in identifying and correcting your mistakes. After all, it's difficult to learn if one has another person doing <i>all</i> of one's work for one...]Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28071147142838250942015-12-29T14:41:11.439+11:002015-12-29T14:41:11.439+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-87380170186069600382015-12-29T12:08:33.798+11:002015-12-29T12:08:33.798+11:00Andy Wilkins:
"It was warmer in the US on on...Andy Wilkins:<br /><br />"It was warmer in the US on one day in 1955"<br /><br />There, fixed that for you.dhogazahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13589109126483161671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-28566320107228045732015-12-29T10:51:06.609+11:002015-12-29T10:51:06.609+11:00It appears to come from Stephen Goddard, which mak...It appears to come from Stephen Goddard, which makes it immediately suspect. At least he simply says it was warmer on average in the US on the one single day, Christmas Eve, 1955 than in 2015, though knowing his track record it wouldn't surprise me if even that single-day cherry-pick was incorrect.<br />dhogazahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13589109126483161671noreply@blogger.com