tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post6568802245456533138..comments2024-03-25T05:30:23.847+11:00Comments on HotWhopper: Why nights can warm faster than days - Christy & McNider vs Davy 2016Souhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-31125298614113664802016-05-08T14:28:12.016+10:002016-05-08T14:28:12.016+10:00Eli also posts how Christy and McNider have "...Eli also posts how Christy and McNider have "fallen into the warming hole"<br /><br />http://rabett.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/christy-and-mcnider-fall-into-warming.htmlCeisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12831378692022001009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-71211453195080210142016-05-04T11:02:02.718+10:002016-05-04T11:02:02.718+10:00Thank you Sou, and very much so Victor V, for expo...Thank you Sou, and very much so Victor V, for exposing the humbug that is this Christy & McNider paper.<br /><br />It's a massive handwave...too many subjects touched on...clearly trying to obscure not illuminate. The argument for JJA Tmax's utility as an AGW metric is just fatuous...really inverted.<br /><br />Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09537772941984056434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-14951247849877915932016-05-03T01:16:04.592+10:002016-05-03T01:16:04.592+10:00"Pressure differences in the atmosphere produ..."Pressure differences in the atmosphere produce warm and cool air."<br /><br />Hasn't Sparks got this more or less exactly backwards?<br />John Hugheshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10317679860236605037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-75894207530700123662016-05-02T09:43:02.703+10:002016-05-02T09:43:02.703+10:00I suppose inevitable that the warmer nights and wa...I suppose inevitable that the warmer nights and warmers winters narrative gets attacked<br /><br />once you accept the overall warming data<br /><br />it is a sort of "managed retreat"<br /><br /><br />Tadaaahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736188830660481871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88395949824805202902016-05-02T08:10:11.506+10:002016-05-02T08:10:11.506+10:00Thank you Victor. That's really helpful. I'...Thank you Victor. That's really helpful. I've added a link to your article <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/05/why-nights-can-warm-faster-than-days.html#update" rel="nofollow">as an update</a>.Souhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08818999735123752034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-17734333288371821012016-05-02T04:44:27.076+10:002016-05-02T04:44:27.076+10:00I would add: I think this was Steve Mosher's p...I would add: I think this was Steve Mosher's point as well. Since more data is available, why not use more data?<br />D.C.Pettersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05078422582348328238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-47653675151841013522016-05-02T04:43:52.972+10:002016-05-02T04:43:52.972+10:00Let me just ad this small tidbit ...
I'll use...Let me just ad this small tidbit ...<br /><br />I'll use TLT the day it starts telling me what is happening at the SURFACE where things melt at 32F (0C). Or I'll use TLT when it measures the temperature below the surface (e. g. ocean) where salt water does not have a density saddle point between 32F (0C) and ~40F (4C or 39.6F). All that counts is what's happening at the surface, the top surface and the bottom surface of ice sheets, in terms of melting.<br /><br />I'm kind of thinking that TLT is the most useless metric ever devised by (two) homo sapiens (from the SE region of the US).Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-89960855481160139092016-05-02T04:42:00.332+10:002016-05-02T04:42:00.332+10:00As far as whether minimums or maximums are better ...As far as whether minimums or maximums are better indicators of total heat retention, let's take a completely inapplicable analogy:<br /><br />Suppose you run a convenience store. Over time, let's say, you get more and more customers (lots of people are moving into the area). But suppose the individual purchase amount from your customers is decreasing. That is, each individual customer purchases less -- more people buy condoms and packs of gum as their only purchase, and fewer buy cases of beer. It is likely they tend to use smaller denominations of bills, because they are making smaller purchases.<br /><br />By any indication, your maximums are decreasing -- smaller individual purchases, smaller bills. Your minimums are also increasing, with all those small-ticket items and coins instead of $20 bills.<br /><br />However, if the number of new customers increases sufficiently, the total take of the store might increase. You could actually be making more money.<br /><br />In this (clearly flawed) analogy, the big-ticket items and big bills are a metaphor for daily maximum temperatures. The frequency of maxima, and even the magnitude of the maxima, might be decreasing, even if the total income for the store (i.e., the total retention of heat energy) increases.<br /><br />This is a bad analogy in any number of ways (too many ways for me to list them all). My point is that singling out one particular factor (number of $20 bills collected per week, or the number and size of maximum daily temperature readings in three summer months) is not going to tell you how much currency (heat) is being collected, and smacks of intentional cherry-picking.<br />D.C.Pettersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05078422582348328238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-21395204542459796292016-05-02T04:29:31.209+10:002016-05-02T04:29:31.209+10:00I started writing a comment, but it got rather lon...I started writing a comment, but it got rather long, so I made <a href="http://variable-variability.blogspot.com/2016/05/christy-mcnider-time-series-summer-surface-temperature-alabama.html" rel="nofollow">a blog post out of it.</a><br /><br />My summary: would be hard to use worse methods.<br /><br />Randall Gates twitter summary: Good summary of this paper. Looking for a certain result, they found it.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-88729199550744413412016-05-02T04:22:08.938+10:002016-05-02T04:22:08.938+10:00I found this comment particularly amusing:
"...I found this comment particularly amusing:<br /><br />"I think there is every likelihood that this is related to a longer range weather trend. Not climate, which implies some sort of “paradigm change”, but an aspect of global weather patterns we don’t understand."<br /><br />I'm not sure what the difference is between "climate" and "longer range weather trend." Aren't those pretty much synonyms?<br /><br />I realize the deniosphere tends to equate "climate" to "day-to-day weather", so maybe that's where John Harmsworth got confused...D.C.Pettersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05078422582348328238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-12079647912097408502016-05-02T04:18:24.343+10:002016-05-02T04:18:24.343+10:00Fascinating article, Sou. Informative, geeky, lots...Fascinating article, Sou. Informative, geeky, lots of depth, perfect for an interested layman such as myself.<br /><br />In five years, I'm going to retire, and I'll be moving into the Rocky Mountains at an elevation of about 8500 feet, far from cities or any possibility of any UHI effects. As an untrained volunteer observer with a lot of time on my hands, I'd be happy to make any observations that might be helpful. There isn't much in the way of a temperature record near where I'll be living, so it isn't like there's a long history for me to compare any observations to. Nevertheless, for as long as I get to live, I might see if I can take consistent measurements of nighttime and daytime temps there in the mountains. It'd be interested to see of any pattern emerges.<br /><br />Incidentally, though there isn't much in the way of historical observations, I may be able to assemble a long record, since I intend to live forever.D.C.Pettersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05078422582348328238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-51814299470392816142016-05-02T04:08:05.276+10:002016-05-02T04:08:05.276+10:00It's the SE region of the USA, I happen to liv...It's the SE region of the USA, I happen to live there. You could almost set your watch via the daily min/max summertime temperatures. Christy knows this. Max ~95F and min ~75F. Look at precipitation maps for the SE, 40-50-60 inches of rain per annum. We have something to the south called the GOM.<br /><br />There is little if any temperature trend in the SE USA for a reason, that reason is called moisture predominantly from the GOM.<br /><br />You have to go west past East Texas, where the GOM moisture is not the dominate feature or north above LS-MS-AL-GA-SC (lower annual rainfall).<br /><br />It's almost always hot and humid with lots of summertime evapotranspiration due to it's mostly rural crop/forested nature. That excess moisture during the summertime in the atmosphere, get's released in summertime thunderstorms, which cools the atmosphere, keeping maximum summertime temperature trends in check.<br /><br />The paper states ...<br /><br />"Expanding the comparison to the conterminous United States (1979–2014), we calculate the r2 of JJA seasonal anomalies of TLT and nClimDiv TMax (TMin) as +0.86 (+0.84), which is much greater than for interior Alabama alone."<br /><br />Looks to me like Tmin and Tmax are statistically the same, r^2 of 0.86 (Tmax) or 0.84 (Tmin). Correlation != causation, or so I've been told.<br /><br />I'm sort of wondering how v6.0 would change the r^2 values versus the v5.6 UAH TLT dataset that they did use.<br /><br />Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2313427464944392482.post-45560578418504192832016-05-02T00:39:48.072+10:002016-05-02T00:39:48.072+10:00Our April average minimum temperature was 0.8-1.0 ...Our April average minimum temperature was 0.8-1.0 C above the historic mean, but more interesting is the fact that almost no one in the vally had their wood heaters burning on more than about one day in four. Usually by this time of year the heaters would be buring more nights than not, and indeed for most people the first use after summer was delayed by about four weeks compared to historic timing (and more if you talk to the old-timers...).<br /><br />Empirically, the sequelæ of the impact of carbon emissions on night temperature change seems to be supporting the standard physics as understood by Davy <i>et al</i>.<br /><br />The above numerical values for temperature are concerned with just minimum night temperatures. I've said in the past that what would be <i>really</i> interesting would be to look at the change in the <i>integral</i> of diurnal temperature, and it's quite possible that the shoulders (especially the preceeding ones?) around the daily (= nightly) minimum may be increasing in value faster than the actual minimum. The (non)fire-lighting behaviour of most folk in my valley would seem to suggest that such might be the case.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.com